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We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

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Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#261

Post by cameldrv »

oldfuture wrote: post #15

And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…

It's really not a public company at all in the sense people are accustomed to. The super voting shares plus the 3% rule for a lawsuit plus the arbitration clause make Musk almost totally unaccountable. It certainly should not be included in stock indices that are used for passive investing, because it is a different category of asset.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#262

Post by ericd »

zarzavat wrote: post #217
ericd wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why not build off-grid? He sort of is. I believe people aren't very happy with his gas turbines powering Colossus near Memphis. There's also currently a >5 year backlog for nat gas turbines for combined cycle plants. Solar takes up an enormous amount of space to get to reasonable base load, because you have to massively overpanel in order to carry it through winter. You need a large multiple of the panels you'd need…

> Geopolitical concerns, infrastructure/power availability, security, since these things are full of incredibly valuable hardware. The market decides that, not Elon. Do customers want to pay $X for compute in Iceland (or wherever), or do they want to pay $kX for compute in space? What premium are customers willing to pay for compute in space? I would guess that the premium is actually negative because the quality of…

No premium, it's just a question of whether people can and are willing to build enough in those other places. Space is a bet that they can't. Also, I don't think bitflips are a huge deal in space for neural nets, we already build in randomness via temperature. A little more shouldn't make things noticeably worse. Higher energy particles could be a problem over time, but when I looked into it, it looked like the incidence of very damaging particles for a given area was surprisingly low.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#263

Post by cyberge99 »

cameldrv wrote: post #261
oldfuture wrote: post #15

And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…

It's really not a public company at all in the sense people are accustomed to. The super voting shares plus the 3% rule for a lawsuit plus the arbitration clause make Musk almost totally unaccountable. It certainly should not be included in stock indices that are used for passive investing, because it is a different category of asset.

This category is affectionately known as a “meme stock”.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#264

Post by cyberge99 »

Ancapistani wrote: post #259
queenkjuul wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space GPUs are stupid, so is hyperloop, so is the Vegas Loop; robotaxis don't work, cybertruck sucks, the humanoid robots don't work, the new roadster is nowhere to be seen. SpaceX blew up an entire launchpad because Musk thought flame diverters are gay, or something. And, yes, Twitter is now a shithole.

Every single one of those examples is both valid and - I believe, at least - misunderstood. Musk has a singular goal as far as I can tell: to make humanity a multi-planetary species. All of those things are testing the boundaries of what's possible in areas that will or could be very important for building a permanent settlement on Mars. I posit that while there's much room for debate around whether or not those proj…

It’s a noble effort for sure, but he’s burned so much goodwill with most people because of his deep alignment with persons of questionable character.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#265

Post by cyberge99 »

karmakurtisaani wrote: post #220
christoph wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn’t even include the whole taking money from people for FSD that was JUST 2 years away…

Just wait until 2022 when SpaceX is ready to launch their first mission to Mars.

I guess I’m not going to make it to your launch party four years ago.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#266

Post by tim333 »

verandaguy wrote: post #44

I need to understand what possible benefit there is to doing DCs in space. The cost would be, no pun intended, fucking astronomical. The cooling situation would make no sense at all -- the major up-and-coming application of DCs, LLM training, has absurd cooling requirements even here on earth where convective cooling is an option, to the point where many DCs use open-loop cooling. Latency might be better, in some cas…

The main argument is if you scale up a lot you run out of electricity supply on Earth.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#267

Post by tim333 »

signatoremo wrote: post #159

No matter what a stock broker thinks, the market decides. At this moment SpaceX’s shares are oversubscribed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/spacex-ip...

Also trading on crypto futures markets at ~$160 vs the $135 IPO price so you should probably buy and flip to a greater fool.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#268

Post by phs318u »

oldfuture wrote: post #15

And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…

Truly, in the face of this, caveat emptor has never been truer.

If/when Musk’s misadventures turn his companies to shit, I may spare a thought for the collaterally damaged, but not a single tear will I shed for the shareholders.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#269

Post by phs318u »

Ancapistani wrote: post #259
queenkjuul wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space GPUs are stupid, so is hyperloop, so is the Vegas Loop; robotaxis don't work, cybertruck sucks, the humanoid robots don't work, the new roadster is nowhere to be seen. SpaceX blew up an entire launchpad because Musk thought flame diverters are gay, or something. And, yes, Twitter is now a shithole.

Every single one of those examples is both valid and - I believe, at least - misunderstood. Musk has a singular goal as far as I can tell: to make humanity a multi-planetary species. All of those things are testing the boundaries of what's possible in areas that will or could be very important for building a permanent settlement on Mars. I posit that while there's much room for debate around whether or not those proj…

Ok. A permanent settlement on Mars. Given the personal control structure at play in his companies giving him autocratic control there, why would anyone believe he wouldn’t be anything but a Martian autocrat, and who in their right mind would willingly submit their own sovereignty to Emperor Musk the First of Mars? It’s not exactly like you could change your mind and walk away. You’d be literally putting your life in the hands of this wildly erratic person.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#270

Post by phs318u »

johnthewise wrote: post #227
queenkjuul wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Space GPUs are stupid, so is hyperloop, so is the Vegas Loop; robotaxis don't work, cybertruck sucks, the humanoid robots don't work, the new roadster is nowhere to be seen. SpaceX blew up an entire launchpad because Musk thought flame diverters are gay, or something. And, yes, Twitter is now a shithole.

If you do so many things, some are bound to be stupid.

While it is true that a broken clock is right twice a day, the inverse is not.
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