Earlier quoted context omitted.
If SpaceX is very successful he will spend everything on a mission to mars. He's pretty up front about this. If it costs a lot and the company runs at a loss then it costs a lot and the company runs at a loss. Read the S-1 > We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon…
Only a matter of time before SpaceX starts selling parcels of land on Mars, surprised they haven’t yet. It has to be good for a few extra billions.
We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
221–230 of 301 posts
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
People grossly undervalued the IPOs of Amazon and Microsoft.
“But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.” -- Carl Sagan
Markets allow people to bet on it. So one would assume the author is taking the revenue from his $70/year subscriptions and shorting the bubble he sees (or at least positioning himself to do so).
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#223A lot (everything?) hinges on orbital data centers. If they don't work, SpaceX is overvalued. SpaceX plans to launch 120 kW satellites, each weighing 1.7 tons. Let's be conservative and say it ends up being a 100 kW satellite massing 2 tons. Let's be conservative and say Starship can launch 50 tons to orbit for $20 million ($5 million more than a Falcon 9 launch). 50 kW per ton x $400K per ton = $8,000 per kW = $8 mi…
1) You forgot to include the actual costs of the GPUs and other equipment, you are just calculating launch costs which will always come on top of the other stuff
2) Datacenters require repairs and hands-on attention, and space provides extra challenges like radiation to deal with
3) They have not provided any evidence that they can solve the heat diffusion issue, which could kill the whole project
4) Musk's track record for outlandish tech is poor (hyperloop, fully autonomous driving, Mars trips, etc. were significantly delayed or not achieved yet), and unlike some of these other things no one else seems to think this is economically feasible
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#224Why are we considering data centers in space? What problem does it solve? I don't understand this concept at all. Surely putting server racks in orbit where you can't do basic maintenance without sending someone up there is a terrible idea? It just always puts me in mind of the story of an IT guy having to travel for two days to go to a premises and turn on a server that three separate people ensure him was already o…
And there's also bitflips. Acceptable for astronauts carrying normal laptop to watch movies, but in a data center? Solving it through redundancy easily cut the usable capacity to half, and there's not enough shielding with any competition for the payload slot.
The usual criticism of Mars colonization is maintaining a base in Antarctic is already a heroic effort despite being relatively easier. Google and Microsoft mostly abandoned their "data center underwater in nearby shore" plans even though in those the tech would've only sat for few minutes going down or alternatively waiting for the problematic module being floated to the surface.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
Look at Tesla stock and you have your answer. This will be another meme stock
It will be interesting to see how this actually plays out. You could either be 100% right, or this could be another exercise in failed human hubris. I.e., Elon and the financial architects behind this IPO are assuming that it will work just like Tesla. However, in the back of my mind I have to wonder if Elon has spent too much social capital for this kind of cult of meme stock strategy to work again. This plan has po…
If social capital was an indicator , then Tesla stock would've cratered 2 years ago. Despite demand for tesla vehicles dropping. I don't think social capital matters these days.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#226And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…
This isn't even a theoretical concern and it goes well beyond unfettered control of a single company. Look at the history: 1. One of Elon's companies (Tesla) bought out another of Elon's companies (Solar City) that was going bankrupt because it owed a lot of money to yet another of Elon's companies (SpaceX) [1]; 2. Elon diverted $500M of NVidia H100 GPUs reserved for Tesla to xAI [2]; 3. Elon made a buyout agreement…
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Google founders are, lets say, more reliable than Musk when it comes to making sound business decisions. I've no idea about that and I won't opine. But every time I see that sort of statement it seems likely motivated by the whole Twitter acquisition. Perhaps that was just a toy or vanity project for him, one he could afford, so even if you think he's running X terribly it might have nothing to do with how he's…
Space GPUs are stupid, so is hyperloop, so is the Vegas Loop; robotaxis don't work, cybertruck sucks, the humanoid robots don't work, the new roadster is nowhere to be seen. SpaceX blew up an entire launchpad because Musk thought flame diverters are gay, or something. And, yes, Twitter is now a shithole.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's easy to see the benefit in DC's in space if you look at a few ingredients: 1. The recent Iran drone attacks on AWS data centers 2. Growing anti-AI and anti data center sentiment at home, plus Larry Fink (ceo of Blackrock) in a recent interview being terrified of dissident groups using consumer drones to attack data centers. 3. Anthropic, Grok, and other AI vendors becoming more and more integrated into defense a…
Even with this benefit of the doubt, even stretching our suspense of disbelief as far as it can go, we are basically talking about a niche military application that inherently has a limited market value. In other words, we can just assume this concept is possible and makes sense some level of financial sense for military, government, and high sensitivity use cases. Well, find me a military contractor worth $1.5 trill…
Where I live in New Zealand the only good internet provider is Starlink, so all my internet is through Starlink. The latency is about 20ms, so while yes you are technically correct that is 10x slower then 2ms, it isn't a major deal breaker.
You are probably thinking about light and fast API calls, where latency is more noticeable. But if you are doing an inference or LLM job that is going to take several seconds of token generation before the full response is available then the difference between 3.002s and 3.020s is negligible.
> build some data centers underground in deep fortified bunkers if you want.
This is the defensive build. The US has a tendency to optimize for offense.
Let's roll forward another few decades, and imagine a classic dystopia scenario: pervasive worldwide surveillance systems, armed drones and robots everywhere, etc. Where does the data from those surveillance systems get crunched, and where do the drones and robots get controlled from? Probably not from one central system in one place. That would ironically be too high latency. These systems would most likely end up as generic shells with minimal on board smarts, controlled by AI "brains" up in LEO, 20ms away via radio. The AI observes from overhead via it's surveillance systems, and it acts via it's robot bodies down on Earth.
It sounds like sci-fi, but you have to remember the world is full of megalomaniac nerds. They love this type of stuff, and if they think someone might be able to build it, then they want to be the one to build it.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#229> We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued Well... yeah, sure, everyone thinks that. And the fact that it doesn't matter and won't impact demand for shares illustrates how increasingly and dangerously untethered the stock market is from reality.
I am looking forward to buying a little piece of it. I plan on putting a couple thousand into the IPO. I view it like buying into D.D. Harriman in "The man who sold the moon." I plan on taking those shares and forgetting about them for a couple decades. Maybe leave them to my grandchildren. This is the longest of plays and I hope it works out.
Maybe SpaceX will fail, but this is the first time since I was a boy that there is any real hope that humanity will step into that future, and I want to be part of it. Maybe Musk is suckering in dreamers like me, but I'll bet on a better future. This is it. This is our shot. Godspeed.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#230I need to understand what possible benefit there is to doing DCs in space. The cost would be, no pun intended, fucking astronomical. The cooling situation would make no sense at all -- the major up-and-coming application of DCs, LLM training, has absurd cooling requirements even here on earth where convective cooling is an option, to the point where many DCs use open-loop cooling. Latency might be better, in some cas…
It's easy to see the benefit in DC's in space if you look at a few ingredients: 1. The recent Iran drone attacks on AWS data centers 2. Growing anti-AI and anti data center sentiment at home, plus Larry Fink (ceo of Blackrock) in a recent interview being terrified of dissident groups using consumer drones to attack data centers. 3. Anthropic, Grok, and other AI vendors becoming more and more integrated into defense a…
I'm not disagreeing with you but peace is far more prosperous for humanity than blowing the worlds' retirement funds on datacentres-in-space as a military endeavour.