Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

AI is slowing down

wheresyoured.at

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

711–720 of 820 posts

Re: AI is slowing down

#711

Post by sarchertech »

wrsh07 wrote: post #686
sarchertech wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds. If you’re only giving even odds you’re not very confident in openAI at all. $15 billion is peanuts.

I don't have to give them better odds then they'll accept It's a steal at even odds It's still positive EV at much worse odds but not worth my time

1. They didn’t accept those odds.

2. You can’t know whether it’s worth your time or not since you don’t know how much the wager was for.

If you’re 99% confident, 10:1 odds with a 10x larger bet is still a steal. My guess is your confidence is somewhere just north of 50%.

Re: AI is slowing down

#712

Post by aurareturn »

Peaches4Rent wrote: post #632
aurareturn wrote: post #610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He’s started a cult around anti AI basically.

That statement isn't proof of anything. If I start a climate crisis cult, doesn't mean my predictions are wrong

I don’t have much time to compile his predictions. I’ll let someone else do that.

That said, I just wanted to point out the grift he is doing. He’s making money by telling some people what they want to hear.

If AI invents a cure for cancer, he will tell you it’s still useless because it didn’t invent immortality.

Re: AI is slowing down

#713

Post by tempfile »

sigmoid10 wrote: post #186
putzdown wrote: post #136

One of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe…

I particularly enjoy reading big banners asking me to pay for a newsletter subscription if I "liked" the content. Not if I found it interesting. Not if it actually provided any value whatsoever to me. No, you just have to "like" it. In other words, it is meant to be written in an engaging way and perhaps reinforce your believes like an echo chamber or even stir up certain strong emotions. Not to convey information. S…

What are you talking about? Why is "liking" something mutually exclusive with conveying information? I like lots of things precisely because they convey information!

Re: AI is slowing down

#714

Post by watwut »

daveguy wrote: post #696
sunkeeh wrote: post #687

Ed Zitron with his subpar takes again. You could kill all the major AI labs today, and even just today's open-weight models are enough to absolutely transform society, with video-game GPU stuck together at homes.

From what I've seen lately, Ed isn't saying the technology isn't significant. He criticizes the fact that AI companies are dumping this kind of money into it with circular financing deals. If it goes like you say, (GPUs at home) the AI labs will be destroyed, because no one will need the inference capacity they're dumping money into when they can do the decent part at home. From what I've seen he says it's more "not…

He is saying technology isnt significant. Again and again and he puts a lot of emphasis on it. He is also focusing the circular financing deals, on it being a bubble etc.

Obviously, you can agree with one thing and not with other. And he can be right in one thing and not the other. But, if you listen to what he is saying, he is absolutely saying the technology is not significant.

Re: AI is slowing down

#716

Post by LogicFailsMe »

vatsachak wrote: post #381
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI. That's immediate bozo bit criteria to me. And, well, if Anthropic revenue doesn't grow 5x between now and the end of the decade, I'll be pretty surprised. But, sure, if it doesn't, then someone will keep them around anyway. AMD almost died in the 2010s as one example, but they kept getting propped up and now they're back in the game swinging. There are people who can…

Alright, let me explain what's happening this Q Chinese providers realized that LLMs have peaked and have started trying to reduce the price per token. Deepseek pro v4 can easily add tests to my complicated code and costs cents for a million tokens. I can ask Claude or ChatGPT architecture questions and then use Deepseek for the rest. How are these businesses going to pay to price of energy and GPU depreciation again…

I love nonsense like this. If using a larger model to plan a chain of thought task for a smaller model works, what makes you think Anthropic can't do the same thing and offer it as one of their effort level settings? It reminds me of all those fallen AI ASIC startups insisting they can crush Nvidia until they found out the hard way that the rules of the game are dynamic.

The real challenge IMO is whether enterprise will want to run the models on-site for 100% security and privacy, but even then, what stops Anthropic from offering such an option on-prem or in the cloud?

China's available AI coding agent subscription slots are apparently gone by 9:30 every morning: https://hellochinatech.com/p/china-ai-coding-boom-economics-...

Re: AI is slowing down

#717

Post by Peanuts99 »

reasonableklout wrote: post #529
overgard wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So here's the thing. I am not generally an angry person. But Ed's writing really resonates with me, because for the last four years these people have been making a strategy of scaring the shit out of us while trying to ruin something I genuinely love (coding), while simultaneously fucking up the economy and multiple industries and turning the internet into slop. I very badly want more people to call these guys "chuck…

> Almost every programmer I know personally has a pretty measured opinion on where these things are useful and where they're not. The breathless hype seems mostly from non coders. We have polar opposite media bubbles. I see OG programmers all over my timeline either grieving the "end of software engineering" (a la Ryan Dahl) or extolling "automatic programming" (a la antirez).

Ultimately though it's those people's bosses who set the direction and from my experience those people are telling you to your face that you'll be replaced by AI as soon as they're able to do so while they continuously fail to see it's shortcomings.

Re: AI is slowing down

#718

Post by frozenseven »

daveguy wrote: post #696
sunkeeh wrote: post #687

Ed Zitron with his subpar takes again. You could kill all the major AI labs today, and even just today's open-weight models are enough to absolutely transform society, with video-game GPU stuck together at homes.

From what I've seen lately, Ed isn't saying the technology isn't significant. He criticizes the fact that AI companies are dumping this kind of money into it with circular financing deals. If it goes like you say, (GPUs at home) the AI labs will be destroyed, because no one will need the inference capacity they're dumping money into when they can do the decent part at home. From what I've seen he says it's more "not…

Zitron is actually making both of those arguments. And both are equally wrong.

Re: AI is slowing down

#719

Post by graphime »

ordinarily wrote: post #511
chronci3740 wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[dead]

Google literally invented the boat (transformers) to be fair.

> Google literally invented the boat (transformers) to be fair.

Isn’t that more damming for Google?

Invent the boat, don’t know how to use it, abandon it, then someone else comes along and steals your boat.

Re: AI is slowing down

#720

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

techblueberry wrote: post #704
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not completely closed to your idea but if code was never the bottleneck why did so many organizations always feel so chronically low on coders? And of course this requires the AI to be no help at all with what is actually the bottleneck.

So, one is, it probably does depend on workflow. Some folks probably are doing things that can be accelerated by AI, and I think if you’re a small team with a good product head and know what you’re doing then AI probably helps a lot. But what if the problem you’re trying to solve is the altogether too often problem of like getting teams that are dependent on you to upgrade the library they use. And what if the librar…

All good questions. I am not a big believer in claiming I know whether we are in a financial bubble or not. I just put it all in VT and we will see what happens. I know that the AI allows me to write code I couldn’t write before much more quickly than before but I admit that this may not help with organizational friction.

Although if this theory is true — that AI helps with coding but coding is not the friction point in organizations with multiple humans, even that should allow faster iteration by allowing one human to do more coding therefore reducing the size of teams required to make some programs. You should see good acceleration in solo shops too.

Post reply on HN