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AI is slowing down

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Re: AI is slowing down

#381

Post by vatsachak »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #331
Tanjreeve wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically you can't find fault with the numbers but you find the tone annoying?

Well, he dismisses any value whatsoever to GenAI. That's immediate bozo bit criteria to me. And, well, if Anthropic revenue doesn't grow 5x between now and the end of the decade, I'll be pretty surprised. But, sure, if it doesn't, then someone will keep them around anyway. AMD almost died in the 2010s as one example, but they kept getting propped up and now they're back in the game swinging. There are people who can…

Alright, let me explain what's happening this Q

Chinese providers realized that LLMs have peaked and have started trying to reduce the price per token. Deepseek pro v4 can easily add tests to my complicated code and costs cents for a million tokens.

I can ask Claude or ChatGPT architecture questions and then use Deepseek for the rest.

How are these businesses going to pay to price of energy and GPU depreciation again?

Re: AI is slowing down

#382

Post by jazzcomputer »

aspenmartin wrote: post #182
elorant wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we assume that everything you said holds true, how is that we as a crowd can make viable a service that eats some $300bn annually in infrastructure costs? Where would that money come from? Most tech companies these days are cutting their AI budgets because the per token pricing is killing them.

Cite a real source for that last bit, I don’t think that is true. Also the budgets should be cut the spend at some places goes beyond any reasonable amount. The strategy there is to hook everything in and find the right processes, then cut the rest. Things then get better and better with each model release. The way you make a viable service that eats 300bn annually is to have enough demand to service that. Anthropic…

When you say "Things then get better and better with each model release."

How far behind are models that can be run locally, and do you expect that this will be widespread?

Re: AI is slowing down

#383

Post by Jtarii »

toasty228 wrote: post #178
atleastoptimal wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what your point is. Stock markets are based on money going into securities based on estimated future value. Even if AI were doubling productivity at a non-AI company, there is more leverage to that money going into an AI company. The question is, is AI leading to massive productivity gains in companies that implement it? AI productivity gains take time to diffuse, but so far companies in the S&P 500 are seei…

> YOY earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.7% Now remove the companies selling the AI shovels: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIAjbZxacAARHwD.png > Not sure what your point is. My point is that they're selling us Skynet and the end of employment as we now it, things that we shouldn't even have to measure to perceive the results of, yet no one is able to measure any of it Pointing a finger at nvidia, google, and th…

Charitably the lag time for this technology to have noticeable effects could just be ~5 years away. Similarly to how computers didn't have a big impact for a decade after they were introduced as people got used to using them.

Re: AI is slowing down

#384

Post by gerdesj »

dofm wrote: post #239

Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…

"Ed Zitron is a"

gobby ... British rabble-rouser. "Gob" is the Dick van Dyke approved word for mouth.

Re: AI is slowing down

#385

Post by saidnooneever »

discreteevent wrote: post #348
famouswaffles wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because Apple said they're 'integrating into the OS' (which can really mean a lot of things) doesn't mean they'll offer something users will actually care about that Open AI can't match.

> that Open AI can't match. Open AI can match it but at what price?

likely cheaper than buying an apple product

Re: AI is slowing down

#387

Post by chronci3740 »

brap wrote: post #329

It always seemed very natural to me that AI will move “down the stack”, where Open AI and Anthropic don’t really have a foot in the door. Who makes consumer devices? Google Who makes operating systems? Google Who makes browsers? Google Who makes the world’s most popular websites? Google By the time 90% of average internet users get to chatgpt.com or whatever, they already went through several Google chokepoints, each…

[dead]

Re: AI is slowing down

#388

Post by vatsachak »

Yeah. Models haven't really improved much from last year to this year.

I really love LLMs for debugging and rubber ducking, but I kinda want to write all my code.

LLMs tend to have a hard time understanding composition.

Re: AI is slowing down

#389

Post by chatmasta »

jimbokun wrote: post #375
al_borland wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do you need from AI that Apple's new offering won't provide? I've been using Kagi Assistant for my AI needs, and have to say, Siri will probably replace it in the fall. The question will be, will I still want to keep Kagi for search, or will this new Siri get me where I need to be on all fronts? I need to start paying more attention to how often I actually…

Very very few consumers will be looking to use an AI to write code for them.

They will, but they won’t realize it’s writing code. It will look like Claude Cowork, which writes code for itself under the hood but is results-oriented for the user.

Re: AI is slowing down

#390

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

cmiles74 wrote: post #284
putzdown wrote: post #136

One of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe…

I don't read Ed Zitron, aside from when he appears here on Hacker News, and I also find his tone to be over-the-top. I think we might agree on that much. These articles are lengthy but, to my understanding, Ed's idea is... * AI companies have committed to purchasing X amount of compute * Data centers are being constructed to meet this demand, they'll need to charge amount Y * AI companies do not have sufficient reven…

> personally the only real use-case for AI that I've seen is code generation or automated sales or scam calls.

That seems like a giant paucity of imagination. I can easily name a lot of areas where AI is already having a large impact and it's not hard to imagine the impact growing:

1. Customer service. Yes, we all like to laugh at the silly chatbot mistakes, linked list reversals and Instagram oopsies, but a lot of companies are putting a lot of effort (and spend) into AI for customer service.

2. The legal profession is already spending a lot on AI, and it will only grow. Again, we all like to read about hallucinated case citations, but those are solvable problems (honestly I felt they were more human problems than tech problems to begin with) and there are so many areas in research and document summarization that AI is really good at.

3. Radiology. There are lots of arguments over whether AI will "replace radiologists", but that's besides the point. The largest radiology groups in the country already use AI software to check for specific missed diagnoses, and the expected spend on AI will grow, a lot.

4. Enterprise knowledge management. Services like Glean are popular and growing.

I can easily go on.

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