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AI is slowing down

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Re: AI is slowing down

#551

Post by simianwords »

lompad wrote: post #293
simianwords wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you consider him trust worthy when sooo many of his predictions are false? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48447549

He was right about the cost changes, which he predicted quite some time ago. People shouted at him that he was making it all up - yet it was correct. He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea. He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it. Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, suc…

> He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea.

He specifically predicted that AI videos have plateaued in 2024 which is egregiously wrong.

> He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it.

He specifically predicted that accuracy won't increase but accuracy has increased over the time significantly to the point where you can't get it to say anything inaccurate using the reasoning models.

> Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, such as Uber is doing now. His prediction is, ROI is negative. And I'm awaiting the society's consensus on that.

The whole Uber skepticism is a good point because all of those people were wrong and Uber is profitable now.

You didn't address my other criticisms - he claimed that revenue would drop in 2024 and it skyrocketed. He claimed that users weren't interested in ChatGPT but now it has a billion users (6x jump).

Re: AI is slowing down

#552

Post by Invictus0 »

putzdown wrote: post #136

One of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe…

Your own iamverysmart retort also fails to point out even a single issue with his actual argumentation.

Re: AI is slowing down

#553

Post by CSMastermind »

brap wrote: post #329

It always seemed very natural to me that AI will move “down the stack”, where Open AI and Anthropic don’t really have a foot in the door. Who makes consumer devices? Google Who makes operating systems? Google Who makes browsers? Google Who makes the world’s most popular websites? Google By the time 90% of average internet users get to chatgpt.com or whatever, they already went through several Google chokepoints, each…

There was a point in time when this would have been untrue of Google. They didn't manifest into this market position, they rose there over the years after starting with a relatively modest product offering. Nothing saying someone else can't do the same.

Re: AI is slowing down

#554

Post by baq »

ido wrote: post #545
zymhan wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just consider the math there for a second, when you factor in the average US wage.

But we know global GDP per capita (a proxy to wages)- the US represent about 25% of total global GDP (a metric which accounts for US wages being higher than average). I’m not being contrarian, I genuinely think the addressable market is the global market and not just the US (and by a wide margin) and as such thats the real potential of anthropic/openai/et al.

Globally available AI means cheap LLM pilots offshore means huge wage deflation in white collar jobs in the US.

…assuming the AI pace of progress slows down enough that there are still meaningful white collar jobs to have.

Re: AI is slowing down

#555

Post by baq »

overgard wrote: post #509
DonsDiscountGas wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty likely that inference will get substantially cheaper. His argument is that for these companies to be profitable some very major and (pre 2022) unprecedented things have to happen. Which I tend to agree with, except I think they will happen, seeing as how they've been happening for a few years.

Except inference has been getting more expensive, not less

It’s been steadily getting cheaper per token per problems solved even if you don’t define ‘unsolvable => infinity token cost’

Re: AI is slowing down

#556

Post by baq »

overgard wrote: post #510
star-glider wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that a certain kind of person cannot separate the following things: 1) I dislike AI as a technology 2) I dislike the people and companies that profit from AI 3) I think AI is useless These are three completely separate positions to have. You can think AI is incredibly useful and also dislike it because it will, for example, reduce your relative status in society. You can love the tech but think that Sam Altm…

I see little evidence that people combine all three positions together. You're making a broad generalization based on personal vibes.

I see plenty if I care to look outside my usual echo chamber. There’s lots of ‘it’s just the next token prediction’ (in 2026 still!), but there are more sophisticated arguments like ‘it can’t be creative’, ‘it doesn’t think’, ‘it’s just pattern matching’ etc. They might even be true for today’s models, but linearly extrapolating an exponential trend is a classic mistake.

Re: AI is slowing down

#557

Post by zkmon »

Ed's posts always sing the same tune - AI spend is unsustainable. But why are the investors pouring into these megacorps allowing them to burn cash? What calculations are the investors making? I would like to see those projections, assumptions and backout plans.

Re: AI is slowing down

#558

Post by baq »

windexh8er wrote: post #434
jredwards wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect that a lot of the money will be in Enterprise AI.

That's cool, but the enterprise is cheap. If you have any proximity to sales in the space you know that procurement and lawyers exist that have a full time job redlining purchase orders and agreements to the N-th degree. The enterprise will pay for something that will make them money or prevent them from losing it. But the enterprise isn't paying a premium and they know that. Even within the Fortune 5 of the US if be…

> If you have any proximity to sales in the space you know that procurement and lawyers exist that have a full time job redlining purchase orders and agreements to the N-th degree.

AWS billing.

Re: AI is slowing down

#559

Post by madaxe_again »

jollyllama wrote: post #220

Lots of dismissive comments ITT, very few tackling the substance of the article. > AI Cannot Afford To Slow Down — It Needs $3 Trillion Or More In Revenue By End Of 2030 To Sustain Its Existence Is this true? With the total 2024 wages being 11.7 trillion USD [0], and nonfarm payrolls totaling 158,000 in the same year [1], it's an order of magnitude higher than my back of the napkin guesses I've made that AI needs to…

The other question nobody seems to ask - what will $3tn in 2030 be worth? I would bet quite a bit less than it is today.

Re: AI is slowing down

#560

Post by mastermage »

throwthrowuknow wrote: post #354
dofm wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Will Apple's offering be providing any meaningful/significant benefit over just using GPT ? If not, don't expect any miracles. Judging by the announcements today about its integration into the OSes? They are offering useful things ChatGPT cannot offer unless they write an "everything app". One can (maybe should) make the argument that this is the browser monopoly again, but given that the USA has seemingly no inten…

Windows has been pushing the same thing hard without much success. Why do I care if AI is integrated into my OS when I can choose my preferred AI and it can use the OS directly?

I hate that I am defending apple here but Microslop has been pushing a garbage tacked on integration of AI into Windows. By all accounts of the last 20 years of Apple, they are much much better at integrating different services into one fluid system.
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