241–250 of 820 posts
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Agreed. Phrases like "journalists are currently gooning over OpenAI and Anthropic" really put me off. It's a poor attempt at modern muckraking; cheeky yet offering little substance.
He's just a Brit, writing in a style we write in. Sweary, comical, red-top. The Register did it for years.
Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…
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Yep. Code acceleration is great, but.... something precedes that. Vision and strategy re. expansion of offerings and businesses. Once a firm reaches maturity in what it offers and is only touching the edges - this code acceleration is literally useless when you factor in all of the trade-offs. This is a good thing - it means fat and slow incumbents are sitting ducks to be out-witted by creative and imaginative founde…
I think its worse than that. I admit that if a small team or an individual uses an LLM, it's likely they can create value faster. I think as soon as you don't own the responsibility for the defects you generate with an LLM, their use starts to destroy value. Regardless of product maturity. This is what I think the data says. https://unessays.substack.com/p/talk-is-cheap
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He's just a Brit, writing in a style we write in. Sweary, comical, red-top. The Register did it for years.
I don't think you know what "gooning" means. It's edgy Gen Z slang and has nothing to do with being British.
(And he's not Gen Z anyway is he; he's among the older millennials. He's appropriating it for muckraking purposes.)
Today Apple launched its revamped AI offering. Judging by several reports, Apple pays Google a mere billion dollars a year to operate it. Essentially just licensing the IP. Google are (allegedly) happy to turn over the right to operate and distill their models for only a billion a year. Consumer revenue is only a smallish share of the puzzle, but still: If you are a consumer and you have a Mac or an iPhone, what do y…
I expect that a lot of the money will be in Enterprise AI.
https://mlq.ai/news/openai-projects-over-280-billion-revenue...
"OpenAI projects revenue will be divided nearly equally between its consumer and enterprise business units by 2030"
That it is so absurdly ambitious and so likely to run up against reality strikes me as really indicative of the quality of the envelopes these calculations are being sketched on.
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Even if you see a real bubble or catastrophy in the making, predicting when it will pop is a fools game.
if you can't predict when it will pop then you should really not predict anything. I can also predict that Google will pop. I won't tell you when but I'll tell you that it will. I'll remain thoroughly unfalsifiable and I'll keep pushing the dates.
Before you spend 20 minutes reading this article, it's worth understanding that the writer has been posting popular but consistently wrong takes for 2+ years (e.g. https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/ from March 2024) arguing that AI is failing, is a waste of money, is bad, will never work, etc.
Yeah they seem clickable because anything Anti-AI is a bit soothing right now, but he is constantly wrong and usually is pushing the angle of "these businesses aren't even profitable!" Instantly close the tab as soon as the popup to subscribe to his newsletter pops up.
One other thing that’s working against the model makers is the hardware is getting better and the models are getting smaller and more capable. I don’t think we’re going back to the mainframe days. Local will be the endgame.
Is Ed right? Probably because in the end it’s unsustainable the companies left will be the companies that have income coming from somewhere else and there’s one large tech company that isn’t even participating in the boondoggle unless you count $1 billion dollars a year as participating ultimately there is no moat in AI model making.
Nvidia and Microsoft trying to introduce another Arm processor in a laptop of all things won’t change the tide either.
Some people seem to see the world only through bubbles. But if you look at human history, despite the ups and downs, we have a trajectory; generally speaking, human-created systems evolve toward ever-increasing complexity, impact, and efficiency. The current wave of AI unlocked language - the tools are now speaking and understanding. This, on its own, is astonishing progress. Language is the foundation of our culture…
Uhh, citations for all of these claims please.
Some people seem to see the world only through bubbles. But if you look at human history, despite the ups and downs, we have a trajectory; generally speaking, human-created systems evolve toward ever-increasing complexity, impact, and efficiency. The current wave of AI unlocked language - the tools are now speaking and understanding. This, on its own, is astonishing progress. Language is the foundation of our culture…
Uhh, citations for all of these claims please.