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Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

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Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#151

Post by nlawalker »

genezeta wrote: post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

My concern is less about knowledge and more about the ability to communicate and make good decisions. I'm not sure how well it holds up against technology that can sometimes make a good showing at it, but is most importantly automated, cheap and subservient.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#152

Post by AndrewKemendo »

genezeta wrote: post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

Everyone but insane people like me want some kind of durable stability to their life

they don’t want to be forced to reinvent themselves every five years because the world is changing faster than it ever has

While I understand where people are coming from to an extent that’s just never been my lifestyle and so when I see people looking for some kind of long-term stability I just kind of baffled at what makes them think that that was ever possible.

It’s like the propaganda from the American 1950s nuclear family idealism really got locked in in a way that people believe that there was a real thing

And while it was certainly true that American baby boomers got to ride the economic pax Americana that happened from 1949 to today, that period is over

While it is still possible for you to have a career your career is most likely going to change every 5 to 10 years now and that’s just a fact of the society that we have built

we did not build society intentionally

It was built via attrition and the current leaders are the ones who are fully committed to monetary based global domination

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#154

Post by therealdrag0 »

grebc wrote: post #99
pc86 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that a perfectly fair argument if you can articulate why?

There’s not much articulation except some personal snippets about someone caught in the hype cycle of a product, that the hive mind is buzzing about deafeningly. Tools/improvements have rarely been negative in such a massive way except rare instances, and even then society moved on and past those tools to bigger & better things. How many people today seriously consider agriculture as a career prospect but almost all…

Just because a generation or two down the line is better off does’t mean a lot of lives aren’t effected negatively when industries are destroyed or moved.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#155

Post by yankee_dodge »

genezeta wrote: post #3

I've had quite a few conversations and read many thoughts on the subject of job security in the software industry through the years. New technologies, various crisis and crashes, just age , incoming "hordes" of less prepared developers, or whatever. If I had to highlight the one thing all those conversations had in common it would be precisely this: I thought that having this knowledge would set me apart And it never…

Knowledge depreciates, so it is clarifying to add time explicitly: I thought this knowledge would set me apart...

Forever? That seems over-optimistic for all occupations in all eras.

For the rest of my working career? This really hasn't been true in a long time either, especially in software, where technology changes on the order of years.

For the duration of my mortgage? The fondest hope, but pretty much like the above.

For the next 10 years? Here is the big change. Even for fields like medicine, where knowledge really did set you apart. The AI can adapt faster. AI is inside the human OODA loop.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#156

Post by fasterik »

lelanthran wrote: post #60
lwhi wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. People who _can_ see the wood for the trees, and are able to understand multiple (sometimes conflicting) requirements and work out a way through that solves the problems that arise, for all involved parties. An understanding of domain, the ability to communicate effectively and a mind that can think laterally, will all be vital.

> I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. In the future, those who succeed will be the owners of capital.

I don't think history bears this out. If you look at the most successful entrepreneurs of the computer age, none of them started out as owners of capital. Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs: yes, they had some level of privilege and opportunity, but they didn't start out as billionaires. Their success came from their ideas.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#157

Post by Matl »

fasterik wrote: post #156
lelanthran wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. In the future, those who succeed will be the owners of capital.

I don't think history bears this out. If you look at the most successful entrepreneurs of the computer age, none of them started out as owners of capital. Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs: yes, they had some level of privilege and opportunity, but they didn't start out as billionaires. Their success came from their ideas.

In the case of Gates at least, it definitely came in part from having access to the right people.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#158

Post by marcosdumay »

fasterik wrote: post #156
lelanthran wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think in the future, those who succeed will be equivalent to wayfinders. In the future, those who succeed will be the owners of capital.

I don't think history bears this out. If you look at the most successful entrepreneurs of the computer age, none of them started out as owners of capital. Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs: yes, they had some level of privilege and opportunity, but they didn't start out as billionaires. Their success came from their ideas.

The fact that you had to separate them into an age should tell you something.

Something happened in the 80s, and it wasn't "the dawn of a new technology". It happened specifically in the US, and was done by their government.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#159

Post by recitedropper »

watwut wrote: post #55
keybored wrote: post #50

> > This anonymous article is likely more FUD from the AI industry. "Just give up,you can't beat the machine. Please go quietly, we want to take your place and it's easier for everybody if you don't resist because you believe it's pointless" > > So blog with single post hyping LLMs. Oh and the domain name "human-in-the-loop". Call me suspicious. > If after reading what I just said in the reply above you still think I…

> This anonymous article is likely more FUD from the AI industry. Literally today I got like 4 AI ads literally mocking "old people still using excel", trying shame and insecure people into some AI whatever product. This is literally the first technology that is trying to scare and mock me into using it. All it actually does is that I am growing to hate it, honestly along with tech industry itself. Which I used to li…

I am having a similar sentiment change about our industry as well. The more AI's marketing plays purely on fear and shame, the more I want to see it fail. If Anthropic, OpenAI, and the other power players continue in this direction, I hope the graduation speech boos are just the start.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#160

Post by vanuatu »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #153
danieltanfh95 wrote: post #25

> The demand for software most certainly has an upper limit. No, it does not. There is no ceiling for complexity.

Clearly there isn’t infinite money to spend on infinite complexity.

it is subject to market forces, but there's no clear ceiling you can draw like copywriting, or textiles, or horses and cars

with abstractions and complexity there's essentially infinite demand for software

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