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Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

human-in-the-loop.bearblog.dev

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Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#91

Post by [deleted] »

watwut wrote: post #55
keybored wrote: post #50

> > This anonymous article is likely more FUD from the AI industry. "Just give up,you can't beat the machine. Please go quietly, we want to take your place and it's easier for everybody if you don't resist because you believe it's pointless" > > So blog with single post hyping LLMs. Oh and the domain name "human-in-the-loop". Call me suspicious. > If after reading what I just said in the reply above you still think I…

> This anonymous article is likely more FUD from the AI industry. Literally today I got like 4 AI ads literally mocking "old people still using excel", trying shame and insecure people into some AI whatever product. This is literally the first technology that is trying to scare and mock me into using it. All it actually does is that I am growing to hate it, honestly along with tech industry itself. Which I used to li…

[deleted]

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#92

Post by ldng »

onraglanroad wrote: post #58
avaer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The outside world doesn't even care that things work, they care that it looks like it works long enough. Investors don't care that it's snake oil, as long as they're not left holding the bag. AI is really good at making things that look like they work. This is a steelman of your argument.

Well yes. This has been the history of the web. Frontpage generated really crappy code but people still used it to create websites. They didn't care about code quality just how it looked.

Right.

But where are Frontpage and Dreamweaver now ?

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#94

Post by Ukv »

coffeefirst wrote: post #62
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * The curve of AI improvement will continue at the current pace Frontier AI is already good enough to be very useful for engineering. It's too costly for many places where it could be useful today. The cost for the same quality of output is going to drop at least 10x over the next 18-24 months. And likely again in the following 18-24 months. At the same time, the cost per watt is going to down ~25%, and at the same…

> The cost for the same quality of output is going to drop at least 10x over the next 18-24 months. How do you know that? In 2026 the prices have been spiking. It now costs orders of magnitude more than it did in November.

Price of the current frontier may vary, but price for a given level of capability tends to drop pretty fast.

April of last year you'd get 1431 ELO[0] from o3-2025-04-16 for $8.00 per million output tokens. April of this year you can get 1436 ELO from deepseek-v4-flash for $0.2 per million output tokens.

[0]: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmarena-ai/arena-leaderboard

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#95

Post by queenkjuul »

I think people are far too dismissive of just how well-suited programming is to the exact form of LLMs.

Extremely formal syntax, limited ambiguity, simple verifiable testing procedures, and colossal well-documented training sets.

I don't yet buy that the successes of coding agents will apply nearly as well to other professions. "Correct more often than not when asked a random accounting question" really isn't any indication to me that they'll get there.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#96

Post by red75prime »

vrganj wrote: post #14

[flagged]

> 1) communal ownership of the means of production, e.g. of compute

As every communist, you forget about economics of such a system. How would you prevent concentration of capital in this system? Planned economy? Planned by whom?

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#98

Post by sarchertech »

onraglanroad wrote: post #58
avaer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The outside world doesn't even care that things work, they care that it looks like it works long enough. Investors don't care that it's snake oil, as long as they're not left holding the bag. AI is really good at making things that look like they work. This is a steelman of your argument.

Well yes. This has been the history of the web. Frontpage generated really crappy code but people still used it to create websites. They didn't care about code quality just how it looked.

My mom was generating web pages with dreamweaver 25 years ago. People used it sure, but people certainly did care about the quality because it produced unmaintainable code. If people truly didn’t care about the quality people would have stopped learning how to write html and CSS around 2005.

Re: Replies to comments on my "LLMs are eroding my career" post

#99

Post by grebc »

pc86 wrote: post #19
grebc wrote: post #13

Your argument boils down to: it’s different this time.

Isn't that a perfectly fair argument if you can articulate why?

There’s not much articulation except some personal snippets about someone caught in the hype cycle of a product, that the hive mind is buzzing about deafeningly.

Tools/improvements have rarely been negative in such a massive way except rare instances, and even then society moved on and past those tools to bigger & better things.

How many people today seriously consider agriculture as a career prospect but almost all humans who lived in the last 2000 years worked as peasant labor on a farm. We are thriving in comparison to that period of time.

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