371–380 of 524 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then move your savings into some other vehicle instead.
If only! Many people have limited options for investing based on their employer's allowed plans that match 401k contributions
Letting new stocks marinate in the market and get 4 quarters of SEC filings along with following all the GAAP accounting practices will definitely help evaluate them before inclusion. The last large boom/bust cycle had a couple of companies, at least, that were doing illegal things. I'm not stating that these three are, just that nobody knows and the process should play out. I do wonder if any of these three companie…
What happens if the auditors use software that consumes the model provider they are auditing? Seems like an obvious conflict of interest for the model, no? I think that’s not how that works today, but I’m sure that it could and will one day.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You'll eventually get exposure to it when it gets added in 12 months. Unless there are better profitability criteria. Ultimately it's all about market returns. If other indexes add it and outperform then eventually money will shift to those funds that do better.
I don't think they ever got profitable for 4 consecutive quarters, if you count xAi. Anyway, if other indexes add it, and it fails spectacularly, money will shift to those funds that do better.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stocks and money should be boring for most people. I'm not a financial adviser and this isn't financial advice but I believe no one with a net worth less than $2m should ever buy an individual stock. Invest in a target date retirement fund for your 401k. Same for Roth Ira. If you have more money to invest after that, invest in an index that aligns with you values (for example I invest in an ESG index for environmenta…
It’s because you just lived through a 10 year period of the best growth for passive, and there is a tremendous amount of marketing online for passive. I don’t disagree with your basic idea, but not being able to articulate alternatives so that you know when they make sense is going to hurt you. We are possibly seeing a major failure mode for passive for the first time.
If it's the first time it's failing then there's really nothing anyone can do to prepare for it, and I certainly wouldn't recommend laypeople to try to time the market.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
First off, there's a fiscal hole that has to come from somewhere. If it doesn't come from AI oligarchs, it's going to come from the rich at large, or the working class. Real talk, if it comes from the working class, we're 100% going to have a revolution, life is getting unsustainable for a large swathe of normal Americans already. If working class folks feel they're getting bent over for oligarchs now, they'll steal…
> there's a fiscal hole that has to come from somewhere. Why? If new technology is invented that enables us to do new things with fewer resources doesn’t that create wealth? It didn’t take it, it made a new thing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Company performance doesnt follow a uniform distribution where each company is as likely to overperform as any other. Selling companies that are run well because their stock went up is a great way to miss out on a lot of money.
If you're reliably beating the market over a long time horizon by picking specific stocks, you're a billionaire, or soon to be.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What happens if the auditors use software that consumes the model provider they are auditing? Seems like an obvious conflict of interest for the model, no? I think that’s not how that works today, but I’m sure that it could and will one day.
How is this any different than Microsoft? I suspect all of the big four use AD and Windows in their enterprise yet that isn’t a dealbreaker for auditing MS’ financials.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I found S&P 500 Equal Weight to be pretty attractive. The rebalancing required to maintain equal weights means constantly selling your winners and buying more of your losers. That creates volatility drag. Stock returns are highly skewed: only about 4% of stocks outperform the market, and are responsible for most of its gains. By keeping your allocation to those stocks small through constant rebalancing, you are mis…
If big tech ends up seeing a 40-50% draw down in the next 2-3 years, what ETF is best equipped to limit the blast radius?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I found S&P 500 Equal Weight to be pretty attractive. The rebalancing required to maintain equal weights means constantly selling your winners and buying more of your losers. That creates volatility drag. Stock returns are highly skewed: only about 4% of stocks outperform the market, and are responsible for most of its gains. By keeping your allocation to those stocks small through constant rebalancing, you are mis…
If big tech ends up seeing a 40-50% draw down in the next 2-3 years, what ETF is best equipped to limit the blast radius?
The best defensive stock for those situations is WMT, but you can think of other similar names as you reason through the why. That's where I'd go. There are many ETFs such as VDC (Vanguard Consumer Staples).
If you don't want to be so defensive, you could go VTV which is basically "large cap value stocks" so it still includes some Tech like Intel but it's way more diversified into other industries.
Gold is more inflation-related, so I wouldn't go there, at least not for the 40-50% draw down scenario you're describing.