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S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

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311–320 of 524 posts

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#311
post #30

Big relief for me. As a passive investor, I want the indices to follow the same passive strategy they always have, and specifically not make exceptions for specific companies like SpaceX wanted. Plenty of ways to get exposure to that stock without it going into the indices it is not qualified for.

Same here. I was so upset about the prospect of my index funds / retirement savings being force fed 100X revenues investments in large size that I emailed my Representative and both Senators. And to add to the irony, I used ChatGPT to help me write these letters.

Then move your savings into some other vehicle instead.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#312
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic has raised $130B. It's a bit more than selling a share to your mate for $1.

Yes, it's like selling a share to a group of mates who hear from their mates that AI is hot so they want in. Still does nothing for the profit not being there to pay those investors back in any other way than via new investors (ie pension funds).

There should be a word for paying investors with money from other investors

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#313
post #192

If you have any doubts, I highly recommend to review the stock price history of GPRO(GoPro), BYND (Beyond Meat), CGC (Canopy Growth), TLRY (Tilray). These are just some somewhat recent IPOs that come to mind, I am sure I am forgetting some. In the case of GPRO, look up their first quarterly reports after the IPO. Pure comedy gold.

This comparison is nuts and invalid. Each of Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX has more revenue than the mentioned companies combined at IPO time. Doomers gonna doom

Is revenue the only metric we care about for this? Seems like stability and p-e ratio should at least be a factor? Which you can’t get until the ipo has actually settled.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#314

A bit tangent, as I never had a single thought about investing any of the few precious attention moment into financial theaters. if I get it this is an index to invest in common in distributed wallets chosen and managed by an organization named S&P? I'ld be interested in something similar, but aiming at growing cooperatives, non profits, externally checked for alignment organisations striving to benefit humanity as a…

sounds like a non-profit service project, not an investment.

How is that incompatible?

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#315

Fast entry rules are terrible. There is an old adage IPO - It's Probably Overpriced. Warren Buffet explained why: It's the issuer who chooses the price and time to enter the market. They will pick circumstances that suits them best. The chances that an IPO is a better deal than multiple other companies available in the auction market at that time which didn't get to choose the timing is close to 0 and it's not worth…

> Fast entry rules are terrible > just don't buy IPOs ever

Of late the markets have become a casino. There is a large retail population that bets on options. Betting on IPOs is just another opportunity for such folks. By bending the rules Elon and others are trying to make it a more favorable bet for retail ensuring a near-term pop.

Kudos to S&P for standing up and sticking it to the man. And, woe to JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc for pushing overpriced paper, and on nasdaq etc for bending rules. This will be remembered later as the peak (my opinion).

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#316

Letting new stocks marinate in the market and get 4 quarters of SEC filings along with following all the GAAP accounting practices will definitely help evaluate them before inclusion. The last large boom/bust cycle had a couple of companies, at least, that were doing illegal things. I'm not stating that these three are, just that nobody knows and the process should play out. I do wonder if any of these three companie…

> just that nobody knows

I don't understand. Guilty until proven innocent, because they... are too successful? What could possibly be the generalizable idea here?

Should we have a speed limit for too successful companies, even if they might be doing super valuable work? Who would we trust to be the judge of the potential havoc that bad capital allocation in such a moment might cause?

EDIT: To be more clear, I don't have any particular qualms with the S&P committee maintaining it's position. That part I find mostly interesting and goes towards the second paragraph.

The first one is reserved for the quote, which I do have qualms with. "Nobody knows" feels a bit weak when the implication, that someone could be doing something illegal, turns into a guiding principle.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN discussion quality has deteriorated dramatically, especially for anything AI related.

One of my indices of mania. You saw similar comments for crypto, blockchain, NFT, VR.

One of the reasons my account is so young is that I went through each of those on HN and decided fuck it and nuked my credentials so I don’t have to stare at it.

There again now.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#318
post #66

A lot of comments here are saying that the impact on the S&P would have been 'minimal' since the S&P is float weighted. So SpaceX would have been ~0.3% of the index. The point isn't that the impact would have been minimal. It's that changing the rules to suit the rich and connected is the literal definition of crony capitalism. Why should SpaceX get exemptions from entry requirements to the S&P when every other compa…

The definition of crony capitalism is when the corporations collude with the government.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#319
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll eventually get exposure to it when it gets added in 12 months. Unless there are better profitability criteria. Ultimately it's all about market returns. If other indexes add it and outperform then eventually money will shift to those funds that do better.

After 12 months the market will have sorted it out. They can’t fake it with investment banker tricks for that long.

Tell that to r/gme

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#320
post #30

Big relief for me. As a passive investor, I want the indices to follow the same passive strategy they always have, and specifically not make exceptions for specific companies like SpaceX wanted. Plenty of ways to get exposure to that stock without it going into the indices it is not qualified for.

Russel 1000 will include it in 5 days. Nasdaq in 15 days.

It reads like greed and corruption to me.
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