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S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

arstechnica.com

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Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#191

Post by bell-cot »

Allybag wrote: post #77
wg0 wrote: post #63

This is very smart of these folks because for just three companies, they can't ruin the trust and impeccable reputation they have built over the years. This decision alone is worth several trillion dollars.

Well, it might be a good decision but I think the possibility of Standard and Poor one day being worth trillions of dollars more than if they had included three companies a year or two earlier than when they inevitably join the index is absolutely zero.

> ... Standard and Poor one day being worth trillions ...

S&P - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global - is a business intel & analytics firm, not an investment firm. Their S&P 500 list just one of many datasets that they manage and sell. Cleverly trying to pick future winners and losers has little potential upside for them, and could put them into direct competition with many of their customers.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#192

Post by shmoil »

If you have any doubts, I highly recommend to review the stock price history of GPRO(GoPro), BYND (Beyond Meat), CGC (Canopy Growth), TLRY (Tilray).

These are just some somewhat recent IPOs that come to mind, I am sure I am forgetting some.

In the case of GPRO, look up their first quarterly reports after the IPO. Pure comedy gold.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#193

Post by kgwgk »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #89
kgwgk wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, what would it have looked like? What does “other components trade down in anticipation” mean when SPCX doesn’t even exist?

> What does “other components trade down in anticipation” mean when SPCX doesn’t even exist? Let's model an equal-weighted index with nine components, with each thus representing 1/9th of the index's allocation. You learn that a tenth member is going to be added. You don't know who it is. But you know that each of those nine will, after that member is included, represent 1/10th of the index's allocation versus the 1/…

You say you didn’t see it happening and I’m asking what would you have seen if you had seen it. What would have been different? Where would have you seen this pretrading that you didn’t see? Who is that someone that would have been selling those shares but didn’t?

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#194

Post by CuriouslyC »

lelanthran wrote: post #149
frozenseven wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> The greatest tech revolution by far and people on this site are trying to movie their money away from it. I hope y'all will do an honest retrospective in a year or so. I see this sentiment often, and think it is short-sighted: 1. The tech fails at the goal - profitability is what we see for any tech that augments humans, which isn't anywhere close to satisfying the trillions in debt, busting the market and bleeding…

I think there's a very small needle to thread, where the federal government can buy out the compute/data centers when the economics start to come apart, and the USA becomes for compute like China is for manufacturing. I expect anti-AI sentiment and adoption will trend better when the people feel like they're getting the lion's share of the benefit (which will happen naturally as models commoditize).

In the long term there will be a lot of work that AI _can_ do as well as (or better than) humans, where the human is still nominally doing the work, because of liability and verification requirements (e.g. medicine). Beyond that, I expect influencer/independent media to become the new it job.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#195

Post by Marha01 »

lelanthran wrote: post #149
frozenseven wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> The greatest tech revolution by far and people on this site are trying to movie their money away from it. I hope y'all will do an honest retrospective in a year or so. I see this sentiment often, and think it is short-sighted: 1. The tech fails at the goal - profitability is what we see for any tech that augments humans, which isn't anywhere close to satisfying the trillions in debt, busting the market and bleeding…

> The tech succeeds at the goal - humans are mostly not needed anymore other than for menial low-paid work. Economy slows, then almost completely stops.

Economy slows or stops when AI robots are producing goods and services for much lower cost than human workers? Perhaps, but I think the obvious next development would be massive deflation: even on welfare or UBI, you would be able to afford the same quantity of goods/services than with normal wage today, because the stuff produced by robots would be significantly cheaper. Just like stuff produced in factories is much cheaper than hand-made stuff we had before factories were invented.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#196

Post by reactordev »

flakeoil wrote: post #111
sscarduzio wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but… Plenty? Really?

Just buy the stock or buy a mutual fund which invests in IT, AI, Tech what have you. Sooner or later they will probably also be included in the general index funds.

This. This a risk stance where they want to see the performance in 3-6 months. I have no doubt hundreds of funds will buy in but the major index needs to be sure it’s not going to drag down the entire stack with its inclusion.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#197

Post by HWR_14 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #49
SkiFire13 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in. Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway?

> Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway? Owned by various folks. Controlled by Elon. Granted, I don't know how Texas law deals with minority rights.

I am not sure if Texas law on the subject is well defined. The SpaceX materials make it clear their position on minority rights is "you have the right to trust Elon or not buy the stock"

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#198

Post by beernet »

shmoil wrote: post #192

If you have any doubts, I highly recommend to review the stock price history of GPRO(GoPro), BYND (Beyond Meat), CGC (Canopy Growth), TLRY (Tilray). These are just some somewhat recent IPOs that come to mind, I am sure I am forgetting some. In the case of GPRO, look up their first quarterly reports after the IPO. Pure comedy gold.

This comparison is nuts and invalid. Each of Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX has more revenue than the mentioned companies combined at IPO time.

Doomers gonna doom

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#199

Post by shmoil »

beernet wrote: post #198
shmoil wrote: post #192

If you have any doubts, I highly recommend to review the stock price history of GPRO(GoPro), BYND (Beyond Meat), CGC (Canopy Growth), TLRY (Tilray). These are just some somewhat recent IPOs that come to mind, I am sure I am forgetting some. In the case of GPRO, look up their first quarterly reports after the IPO. Pure comedy gold.

This comparison is nuts and invalid. Each of Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX has more revenue than the mentioned companies combined at IPO time. Doomers gonna doom

And scammers gonna scam.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#200

Post by CuriouslyC »

have_faith wrote: post #189
orwin wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.

What’s the time horizon do you think for free models matching today’s SOTA on average consumer hardware? I see people building 6k+ machines to run the best of them at the moment, which are behind SOTA by maybe 6 - 12 months or so right now.

Open models lag the frontier ~3-6 months, though they're likely smaller than frontier models as well so that lag might not be fully real. Qwen 3.6 27B is very usable for average coding, and Gemma4 31b is very usable for day to day tasks.

The problem there isn't the models, it's consumer hardware. Even 16GB cards aren't the norm, and even with massive improvements in per-parameter performance we probably still need 48GB memory to get models that feel smart enough to trust.

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