Anyone knows what MSCI World will do?
Same question. It seems like they have had fast track rules for a pretty long time and will include SpaceX
S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
121–130 of 524 posts
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is that relevant? The rules are in place for a reason, why does it matter what the percentage is? They're not profitable. When they prove they're worth the dollars, they can be included, per the rules. Also, S&P500 has a current market cap of $67 trillion, 0.3% of that is some $200billion. That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it.
> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it. These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people. SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in. > They're not profitable. Right > When they prove they're worth t…
> "Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet."
Amazon wasn't profitable because it reinvested earnings into growth, while SpaceX is funding it's growth by taking on very significant levels of debt (which will take a big chunk of future earnings just to service). These aren't comparable from a risk perspective.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
HN discussion quality has deteriorated dramatically, especially for anything AI related.
I suspect this is due to fatigue. I admit I often post low quality replies under AI slop posts, simply because flagging them does nothing when they are somehow upvoted above and beyond anything human made. This fatigue also causes a lot of readers to skip the AI threads, meaning less self-moderation of the forum through voting.
No, it's bots. When it comes to AI the HN community is now the mark.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
and Meta saying they want to issue. Combined with the IPO scramble there's a lot of dilution and raising hitting the same sector in a very short period of time. Can the public markets pony up the cash in the short timeframe? It seems investors said no, or at least the uncertainty was high enough that they trimmed the risk.
> Can the public markets pony up the cash in the short timeframe? Yes, very easily, American households alone plop a few hundred billion to over a trillion dollars into the stock market every quarter. Whether investors want to is another question. (The answer, at least to the tune of $75bn for SpaceX, seems to be yes.)
What I mean is that investors don't want to pony up the cash at current market prices. They want a discount. Then they will pony up the cash
Just like creditors demand higher rates on investment grade bonds, investors are demanding a higher risk premium if they're going to be expected to keep piling in cash to this particular sector that's diluting and raising.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Can the public markets pony up the cash in the short timeframe? Yes, very easily, American households alone plop a few hundred billion to over a trillion dollars into the stock market every quarter. Whether investors want to is another question. (The answer, at least to the tune of $75bn for SpaceX, seems to be yes.)
What I mean is that investors don't want to pony up the cash at current market prices. They want a discount. Then they will pony up the cash Just like creditors demand higher rates on investment grade bonds, investors are demanding a higher risk premium if they're going to be expected to keep piling in cash to this particular sector that's diluting and raising.
> investors don't want to pony up the cash at current market prices
I don't think anyone can say this until the IPO goes out. Right now, all we're seeing is discount rates being adjusted market wide in anticipation of a rate hike.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
It was unlikely to happen anywhere but the Nasdaq-100, because only Nasdaq has the incentive to do it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48411713
> because only Nasdaq has the incentive to do it I'm not going to say Nasdaq didn't do this corruptly. But there are plenty of good reasons for the NASDAQ 100, an index marketed as being tech focussed, bending over to include AI issues that don't require nefarious explanations.
Why do you think they originally had inclusion criteria, and have the reasons for having those criteria changed? Why do you think Musk has made it so clear that he’s strongly weighting that inclusion in his choices?
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
The market moved in reaction to the totality of events that happened in the world all averaged out through the actions of the participants, anyone who says "this" was what happened on any day is wrong. Some days have dominating factors but even if the event is the dominant one, the reason why it has the impact it does might be a 3rd or 4th level effect.
Thank you! So sick of people always ascribing the market's movement to whichever narrative headline they pick that day.
Heh. I would not discount narrative so fast. You may not believe it, but it does not mean others don't.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it. These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people. SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in. > They're not profitable. Right > When they prove they're worth t…
> "Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet." Amazon wasn't profitable because it reinvested earnings into growth, while SpaceX is funding it's growth by taking on very significant levels of debt (which will take a big chunk of future earnings just to service). These aren't comparable from a risk perspective.
> Amazon wasn't profitable because it reinvested earnings into growth
Was this obvious early on?
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it. These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people. SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in. > They're not profitable. Right > When they prove they're worth t…
So is spacex growing like Amazon was? There is no evidence of growth. And no, Google renting them infra grom then is not growth. If it waa, AllBirds is the next unicorn
> There is no evidence of growth
There is plenty of evidence of growth. The problem is SpaceX as it is is a conglomerate recently cobbled together, and so estimating what it is and what it's going to do is challenging.
Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere. Same as the dotcom and same as the railroads.
> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.
Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.