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S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

arstechnica.com

71–80 of 524 posts

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#71
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strong job numbers too. On a side note, I find it very sad that strong job numbers make stock plummet. It really is an indication that the stock market is mostly speculative and not concerned about the actual economy.

> It really is an indication that the stock market is mostly speculative and not concerned about the actual economy Not really. Strong jobs numbers in the midst of 3+ percent inflation means rates should go up. That, in turn, dilates time on future earnings. So making a company's future earnings more-heavily discounted will be a net drag on valuations even if the jobs numbers indicate those numbers, near term and far…

Yep. Job numbers are the “actual economy” – the actual economy is driven by wages and consumption.

Stronger wages → stronger consumption → higher demand-pull inflation.

But higher inflation implying that “rates should go up” is central bank doctrine. It’s not a general law of how economies function.

Central banks intervening with interest rate adjustments is what distorts the prices of equities downward, when inflation rises.

Without central bank intervention, inflation should theoretically push equities higher (a highly-inflated economy driven by rising demand is by definition a well-performing economy!).

Central banks intervene because runaway inflation can be harmful to wage-earners (they save in dollars, not assets).

But I’m not sure if a 2–3% inflation target is ideal. It seems to me that this arbitrarily low inflation target restricts the growth of the economy in ways that might affect wage-earners, defeating the stated purpose of monetary policy, since higher rates also have the effect of curbing job growth as well as raising the cost of servicing mortgages.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#72
post #25

Crazy to see the Twitter behavior here of really smart, well conveyed top level comments replied to by weird propaganda pushing bottom feeders.

HN discussion quality has deteriorated dramatically, especially for anything AI related.

I suspect this is due to fatigue. I admit I often post low quality replies under AI slop posts, simply because flagging them does nothing when they are somehow upvoted above and beyond anything human made.

This fatigue also causes a lot of readers to skip the AI threads, meaning less self-moderation of the forum through voting.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#73
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> This news tanked 5% off the Nasdaq yesterday No, it did not. The market moved in reaction to earnings misses from e.g. Broadcom [1] and the strong jobs report. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/broadcom-stock-sin...

That’s a lazy take. My spidey senses tell me otherwise.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#74

Yep!! Respect to them. I was planning to move to an equal weight index but this gives me a little more time to evaluate options.

Its a sensible move. The spaceX IPO is a mess, and if it doesn't go full enron I'm not sure what will happen to the wider market.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#75

Stocks and money. It's so boring. I will go drive my old German car now, and get a bit drunk in a bottle of Nebbiolo while listening to some French lunatic with a piano. Enjoy your trip to Mars and your self driving toy cars. The world is off its rails. Bit time.

Dude, are you me? :D

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#76
post #37
post #30

Big relief for me. As a passive investor, I want the indices to follow the same passive strategy they always have, and specifically not make exceptions for specific companies like SpaceX wanted. Plenty of ways to get exposure to that stock without it going into the indices it is not qualified for.

[flagged]

-5%? Oh no panic sell everything now, its so over - Warren Buffet

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#77
post #63

This is very smart of these folks because for just three companies, they can't ruin the trust and impeccable reputation they have built over the years. This decision alone is worth several trillion dollars.

Well, it might be a good decision but I think the possibility of Standard and Poor one day being worth trillions of dollars more than if they had included three companies a year or two earlier than when they inevitably join the index is absolutely zero.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#78
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that relevant? The rules are in place for a reason, why does it matter what the percentage is? They're not profitable. When they prove they're worth the dollars, they can be included, per the rules. Also, S&P500 has a current market cap of $67 trillion, 0.3% of that is some $200billion. That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it.

> why does it matter what the percentage is This percentage directly determines the influence on SP500 index funds holders (SPY, VOO, etc.). The outcome could have been: 1. not included (0%) 2. included, weight by free float (0.3%) --- 54th in the list between $AXP and $MCD 3. included, weight by free float x 3 (0.9%) --- 19th in the list between $ORCL and $JNJ 4. included, weight by market cap (1.75 trillion / 67 tr…

Yeah, the thing that really concerns me about the other indices is the minimum free float in calculations, so not only will SpaceX appear in the index way too early, they'll be artificially giving it a massive boost, meaning that passive fund investors are forced to buy even more. That is the most egregious part of all.

I can partly see the rationale - existing stockholders will want to ditch their stock ASAP to cash in on the artificially elevated prices, and so there's a good chance the free float will increase quicker than the index can capture it, but this rule change will be driving those sales. It's all a scam.

I'm glad a good chunk of my US holdings are in S&P tracked ETFs because they won't include SpaceX until it's ready, but another 25% of my funds are in funds tracking FTSE global indices (so equivalent to about another 15% in US), and I haven't yet found a good alternative to those. I might end up having to switch to separate UK, S&P 500 and global ex-US, but making that switch would probably cost me as much as just sucking it up and being forced to buy SpaceX.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#79
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strong job numbers too. On a side note, I find it very sad that strong job numbers make stock plummet. It really is an indication that the stock market is mostly speculative and not concerned about the actual economy.

> not concerned about the actual economy. Why would it be? Non dividend stocks only have value because other people think they have value (i.e. greater fool theory). Only dividend stocks have some base value connected to how well the company does. (Higher dividend if it does well, lower if it does poorly.) But they still also have a lot of "greater fool" value. Beyond dividend, stocks have no intrinsic value. Nowaday…

Every time I try to explain this to people I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall. Even more frustrating to hear, otherwise reasonable, market analysts say that "dividends don't matter because the stock value goes down on payout". What doesn't matter is how successful a company is if they don't share their profits. You're literally buying a Pokémon card just with a lot of liquidity until the illusion of value bursts, hoping that somebody will buy you out because P/E improves or whatever.

Re: S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic

#80
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> This news tanked 5% off the Nasdaq yesterday No, it did not. The market moved in reaction to earnings misses from e.g. Broadcom [1] and the strong jobs report. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/broadcom-stock-sin...

and Meta saying they want to issue. Combined with the IPO scramble there's a lot of dilution and raising hitting the same sector in a very short period of time. Can the public markets pony up the cash in the short timeframe? It seems investors said no, or at least the uncertainty was high enough that they trimmed the risk.
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