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What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

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Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#71

Post by doctorwho42 »

saltyoldman wrote: post #48
eska wrote: post #10

There is no “zero” immigration policy, this is a strawman. Controlled immigration is different from opening the floodgates. Also weird to admit that no country has reversed its birth rate problem, but still insist upon massive immigration being the solution.

In the united states the birthrate problem is largely climate change panic (which is not a reason to not have kids because other populations / immigrants start accelerating their birth rates), and then because of heavy migration and other market factors, home prices have skyrocketed. Many couples don't want to have kids until they at least buy their "starter house". I'm not very familiar with Japan's problems, but I…

Well their economy isn't helping; they export a ton because it is more profitable to export than to sell domestically.

Their work culture actually rivals the US for toxicity.

And they dove into the modern technological society fully before anyone other than maybe Korea... Who is also having birth rate problems

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#72

Post by malicka »

lnsru wrote: post #49
malicka wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> crime rate hikes. No, not really. Broadly, immigration has no effect on crime-rates. In case-study after case-study, it’s shown immigration has little to no impact on crime-rates. This was even disproven after the height of the Syrian refuge crisis! But media likes sensationalist reporting, so public perception doesn’t match the statistics. > cultural demise. Meaningless, also created by the media. If you listen to…

Immigration HAS an effect: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-crime-figures-migrants-refugee... The thing is very simple: I am really not afraid of police in Germany. Worst thing that can happen is spending a night in jail. In other countries the police can shoot you or seriously beat you up. So basically there is no police. And the jail… well it’s all inclusive hotel compared to other countries. Deportation is anyway ver…

For one, this article doesn’t claim that immigration increases overall crime.

Secondly, the article hints at a sampling bias we have run into before, during the Syrian refugee crisis: Immigrants are not more likely compared to their peers.

If you compare a block that is predominately young men to the general population, they commit more crime – because they are young men, not because they are immigrants.

A proper statistical comparison looks at the sub-demographics, comparing immigrant and native folk to their peers in age and sex.

Compare 18-year old men from Algeria to native 18 year-old men, and they aren’t any more likely to commit crime. But between 18-year old men and the general population? Well, duh, because one group has more young men in it.

Which is to say: No, immigrants aren’t more likely to commit crimes.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#73

Post by Retric »

kibwen wrote: post #69
Gud wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it hasn’t?

US fertility rates first fell below replacement in 1972, falling to 1.8 by 1984, then rising back above replacement by 2007, then falling to 1.79 today. Despite being below replacement for 53 of the last 54 years, overall US population has never declined. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/highcharts/data/dubina-cha...

There’s years where the population declined due to migration, the long term trend is very much a net positive.

Recent policies have resulted in significant population decline, but so far they are just another blip.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#75

Post by armada651 »

saltyoldman wrote: post #48
eska wrote: post #10

There is no “zero” immigration policy, this is a strawman. Controlled immigration is different from opening the floodgates. Also weird to admit that no country has reversed its birth rate problem, but still insist upon massive immigration being the solution.

In the united states the birthrate problem is largely climate change panic (which is not a reason to not have kids because other populations / immigrants start accelerating their birth rates), and then because of heavy migration and other market factors, home prices have skyrocketed. Many couples don't want to have kids until they at least buy their "starter house". I'm not very familiar with Japan's problems, but I…

I guess we're ready to blame anything but work hours, no one has time to take care of kids anymore. The correlation between industrialization and falling birth rates has long been established, but it's just shrugged off as a "that's just the way it is" rather than taking a serious look at the 8-hour work day.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#76

Post by Tor3 »

chainmail2029 wrote: post #42

>But a strict zero-immigration policy collides with one terrifying reality: No country in history has successfully reversed a falling fertility rate, and Japan shows zero signs of breaking that trend. Wrong! Korea has successfully reversed theirs starting this year due to some extreme policies benefiting families with children [1] https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-05-27/nationa... [2] https://www.theguar…

The worldometer statistics site doesn't fully agree with that, the Guardian reports that the rate went from 0.75 to 0.80, while worldometer states that the 2026 rate will probably end up at 0.76. At best this has kind of stopped dropping, but it is any case catastrophically low (and way worse than Japan)

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#77

Post by bulbar »

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #4

They’ll find it easy to keep their homogenous culture and shared traditional values. Why would the solution to “our people aren’t having enough babies” be “we should import different people to have their babies here”? Why does ever single bleeding heart liberal globalist try and ignore the deep psychological truths about human tribalism? It’s not even a bad thing, but even if it was, it’s a fact.

> They’ll find it easy to keep their homogenous culture and shared traditional values.

Talking about homogenous culture I hope you don't live in the US, because that guys for sure never had one. US is way too big for that which is also why so many laws are still defined by the states.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#78

Post by Tor3 »

seandoe wrote: post #43

Make having kids a zero-cost endeavor. If that doesn't do it, make it a profitable one. It's as simple as that.

It is not as simple as that. In my country giving birth is free. And you get economic support for every child. For most people it's still an economic burden to some extent, but for the majority it's not something which blocks them from having children. It's more that most families I know are content with having two children. It feels fine to them. But that's the families that do have children. 25% of men in my country never have children. It's not enough. A lot of families need to produce 3 children, and better if there are some with four.. and most people simply don't want that. And that's for the most part not a question of economy.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#79

Post by TheDong »

seandoe wrote: post #43

Make having kids a zero-cost endeavor. If that doesn't do it, make it a profitable one. It's as simple as that.

Children cost hundred's of thousands of dollars to raise, and that doesn't even count the opportunity cost of your own career progression as you have to spend a year of sleepless nights and possibly have one or both parents reduce their work hours to care for the child.

The Japanese government already struggles to pay out pensions with its aging population, healthcare and pension costs are both rising, where do you propose the money for this comes from?

Should the government increase its already high tax rate from up-to-50% to up-to-90% and take money from the childless to give to parents?

Should the government replace your salary if you quit your job to raise a kid (since after-all that is a cost of the endeavor)?

If you're just talking about "giving birth", I assure you the cost to give birth is already close to free, the government already covers that, and various cities have local parent stipends which make it "profitable" in a sense.

But the real cost of giving birth is not the giving birth, it's the millions of yen you then need to spend over the next 18 years to raise and educate the child, not to mention the cost of possibly dying during childbirth.

Re: What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?

#80

Post by justanotherjoe »

theturtlemoves wrote: post #63

You know, many eastern countries apparently intuitively think in cycles. The west tends to think linearly: "We're trending upwards, argh argh overpopulation, famine, death. We're trending downwards, argh argh population collapse, famine, death". Same with the perception of time. My country sees time as a line. I once had an interesting training where the instructor pointed this out. She went on to say that seeing tim…

Except in growth imperative system we have, to stop growing is not to not grow, it is to spiral into a cascade failure
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