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Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

reuters.com

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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#81

Post by margalabargala »

taude wrote: post #55
RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

I'm with you on this. I think the market bubble can stay alive and well a lot longer than you can survive an open short position. I think we're still a ways away from CEOs admitting that AI actually can't cut the cost of human capital in half.

> I think we're still a ways away from CEOs admitting that AI actually can't cut the cost of human capital in half

On the contrary, I think it certainly can. In the sense that productivity per person can be doubled. You could fire half your workforce and do nearly the same output.

Trouble is, everyone who does that will get outcompeted by everyone who didn't fore their workforce, and instead doubled their output.

We've seen it before with factories and computerization.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#82

Post by jrflo »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#83

Post by moate »

pandoro wrote: post #69

The other day I was thinking: "if Musk disappears tomorrow would the valuation still be in the same ballpark?". I don't think so at all. In this context, it feels like even 150 Billions would be a big stretch considering revenue and forecasts. The coming IPOs and numbers are completely detached from reality and we are all in for a crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

"If the guy with insider access to the Kleptocracy left would this thing be as valuable" is a resounding NO when you're selling exploding space ships and a 3rd tier AI, a service that consumers continue to find complicated at best.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#84

Post by toomuchtodo »

andsoitis wrote: post #70
toomuchtodo wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If one wants to gamble on the grift, that is what options are for. Otherwise, we might as well start adding NFTs to the indexes if fundamentals do not matter. Luck for some, risk management for others. Regardless, informed consent is important imho. Relevant precedence is ETFs that exclude Big Tech. https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/ ("XMAG, the first ETF designed to provide investors with exposure to the S&P 500, ex…

In 2025 VOO returned 17.82% vs VOOG returned 22.11%. XMAG’s trailing 1-year return through late 2025 was around 9–15% depending on the measurement date, as the Mag 7 dragged badly in early 2025. VOOG has returned 18.28%/yr over 10 years vs 15.63%/yr for VOO, a meaningful gap driven almost entirely by Mag 7 dominance. XMAG has no 10-year track record.

Certainly, you have done well over the last ~18-24 months if you have exposure to the AI investment exuberance (VOO), just as you did well if you had exposure to certain securities during ZIRP or the pandemic. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#85

Post by tootie »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

What's that old saw the investors use? The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? You can bet on the fundamentals or you can bet on other investors.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#86

Post by kybernetikos »

jmyeet wrote: post #68
kybernetikos wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately it was inevitable that as passive investing got more and more popular, people would seek to game it. Not that I'm happy about it, but if this works, it is probably just the beginning of sneaky ways being found to trick passive money into taking on way more risk than it intended to. And of course passive investors are passive, so they may not even notice, and probably won't fight back until the inevitable c…

I think there's going to be blowback from this because this is "every other horse can only use three of their legs" levels of fixing. I looked into the how the rule-changing works. NASDAQ is what's called a Self-Regulating Organization ("SRO") in the legislation so it has a lot of power. Were it a government agency, it would be more difficult. Technically, the SEC has to approve all rule changes by SROs but in this a…

> But if this goes badly,

I think the most likely scenario is that there eventually will be the changes you describe, but if not enough people squeal now, then it won't be until after a bunch of people lose their savings either because of this or some follow on scam that finds a way to take advantage of passive money.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#87

Post by margalabargala »

MattDamonSpace wrote: post #45
jbverschoor wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Idk… The original “revenue thesis” was that SpaceX, with landing orbital rocket boosters, can undercut all competitors and essentially have a monopoly on payload-to-orbit, and that their lower prices would massive increase the market. Seems a fine business. But then a couple years ago they say “actually with this brand new technological edge we can spin up a monopoly on an entirely NEW industry, Space Internet” and w…

I don't disagree, but how many anchors can you tie to a rocket ship before it fails to launch?

I agree with everything you said about SpaceX's tech, but it's also been saddled with xAI and Twitter.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#88

Post by nonethewiser »

pandoro wrote: post #69

The other day I was thinking: "if Musk disappears tomorrow would the valuation still be in the same ballpark?". I don't think so at all. In this context, it feels like even 150 Billions would be a big stretch considering revenue and forecasts. The coming IPOs and numbers are completely detached from reality and we are all in for a crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

>I don't think so at all. In this context, it feels like even 150 Billions would be a big stretch considering revenue and forecasts.

How are you valuating SpaceX?

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#89

Post by [deleted] »

trhway wrote: post #53
dstroot wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additional concern is the push to get it added to indices immediately. Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs.

>Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs. Not just forcing it into. Forcing the funds to fight for it betting the stock rice higher and higher in a runaway style - the effect created by limited float and high valuation as the funds tracking indexes would try to get the amount reflecting the proportion of the valuation of the company vs. the whole tracked index valuation, and with such huge valuation the…

[deleted]

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#90

Post by matwood »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #64
toomuchtodo wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best you can do is avoid the exposure with changes to your portfolio composition while everyone else gets grifted. It's regrettable.

There are many dubious companies in the S&P500. I don’t see the point in getting selectively heated about this one when everyone seems to be okay with the others. That’s the way indexes roll. I don’t invest in indexes for this reason. There is a separate structural issue with indexes that is being ignored here. Indexes were never really designed to accommodate companies going public so late with high revenue growth.…

Also given how the S&P weights, it'll have about as much sway as DoorDash.

Annoying they pushed it into the indexes, but like you said, we've also never had a company come out in the 1T range or even the x00B range. These indexes are supposed to represent the market and can't ignore a 1T market cap company for very long.

EDIT

One other thing to add, is that we still do not know what the stock will price at. It's already come down once, and as more information comes out it can continue to come down until it's finally priced the day before the first trading day.

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