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As is the case with Elon's companies (and a bit of the market itself), it feels like any logical valuation has no impact on the actual stock price.
The market can stay insane longer than you can stay solvent. In the short term the market is a popularity machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.
This has not been the case for a long time.
What do you suppose is BTC's correct valuation? How about TSLA?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Not an Elon fan, but markets dictate the value, not analyst reports or "fundamentals". The stock is simply worth whatever people will pay for it. The fact that people are paying an implied valuation of 2T for it currently is a strong signal IMO.
IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI
Doesn't matter, as soon as they can they'll shove it into the indexes, meaning pension funds all over the world will be let holding the bag.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
Index funds track an index mechanically. If you run an S&P 500 fund, you have to mirror the S&P 500. If a company gets added to the index, every fund tracking the index must buy it to match the index -- there is no discretion. Pension funds hold a lot of index funds.
So the causal chain is that pension funds track indexes, indexes have to buy the companies in the index, SpaceX got a fast path to the indexes. SpaceX will launch and pension funds will buy the stock, presumably propping up the stock price.
It would take a lot for pension funds to undo this and would be the opposite of index investing.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Not an Elon fan, but markets dictate the value, not analyst reports or "fundamentals". The stock is simply worth whatever people will pay for it. The fact that people are paying an implied valuation of 2T for it currently is a strong signal IMO.
In other words, markets are great at discovering the price at which something will transact, but that's just a function over all price expectation of all market participants.
But each participant can do their own fundamental analysis. This is one of them.
Some participants are better than others at such analyses. It's up to you to think through the ones that get published.
Pricing things differently from the market observed price is how you get alpha.
IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a finite supply of space before we lock ourselves in with trash
The risk here is severely overblown. Low earth orbit is self-cleaning with atmospheric drag. There’s comparatively little in MEO and even in a catastrophic Kessler syndrome scenario it’s still safe to transit through. Polluting higher orbits is so far beyond our current capabilities that it’s not even worth discussing.