Which is still 10x what it is worth
Based on what?
Revenue. (Or forecast revenue, take your pick.)
Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#12That's going to be interesting to see if others follow this as an anchor or buy more into the hype. Regardless it's still a large multiple of earnings...
There's a finite supply of space before we lock ourselves in with trash
The risk here is severely overblown. Low earth orbit is self-cleaning with atmospheric drag. There’s comparatively little in MEO and even in a catastrophic Kessler syndrome scenario it’s still safe to transit through. Polluting higher orbits is so far beyond our current capabilities that it’s not even worth discussing.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#13IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#16Doesn't matter, as soon as they can they'll shove it into the indexes, meaning pension funds all over the world will be let holding the bag.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
A lot of them have rules forcing them to have some amount of exposure to indexes of a market, or all entries in a market.
There are MAJOR rule changes made to allow them to do this (90 day wait-time reduced to 5 days, financial stability requirements lowered or removed), which is why automated rules like that were created ("oh, if they make it to X, they were already vetted for Y, Z").
A lot of people are throwing a lot of trust and reputation on the bonfire to make this happen.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#17IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI
I knew it was going to be Patrick Boyle before I even clicked.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#18Doesn't matter, as soon as they can they'll shove it into the indexes, meaning pension funds all over the world will be let holding the bag.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
The big indexes will buy SpaceX soon. If pensions buy big indexes, which they do, they will own SpaceX indirectly.
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#19Doesn't matter, as soon as they can they'll shove it into the indexes, meaning pension funds all over the world will be let holding the bag.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
If the rule change goes through then SpaceX could be added to an index such as the S&P 500, where many (most?) pension funds invest. "S&P 500 has been considering a rule change to waive the earnings requirement and shorten the seasoning period for mega-cap IPOs like SpaceX." "Pension funds allocate 30% to 50% of their total portfolios to broad U.S. equities [in the form of index funds.]"
Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
I keep seeing this comment on all these spacex posts, can someone ELI5 to me why the pension funds are going to be forced to buy this? (do they not have free will on what they buy?)
The big indexes will buy SpaceX soon. If pensions buy big indexes, which they do, they will own SpaceX indirectly.
Pensions buy big indexes in part because of the exact policies that were reversed to let SpaceX in; the behavior is not an immutable law of nature.
OTOH, the changes may expose them to SpaceX before they could reasonably rebalance their holdings, even if they were to stop buying the affected indexes immediately.