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Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

reuters.com

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Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#51

Post by kube-system »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #32
oa335 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not an Elon fan, but markets dictate the value, not analyst reports or "fundamentals". The stock is simply worth whatever people will pay for it. The fact that people are paying an implied valuation of 2T for it currently is a strong signal IMO.

Markets dictate the price. The terms "price" and "value" generally have actual meanings as used in financial markets. The idea that nothing can ever be mispriced (defined as price != value) is not really held by anyone serious.

Yeah, if price always equalled value, things like arbitrage, or speculative bubbles wouldn't be able to exist.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#52

Post by ianburrell »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #30
gordonhart wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk here is severely overblown. Low earth orbit is self-cleaning with atmospheric drag. There’s comparatively little in MEO and even in a catastrophic Kessler syndrome scenario it’s still safe to transit through. Polluting higher orbits is so far beyond our current capabilities that it’s not even worth discussing.

This is the first time I’ve ever seen someone downplay Kessler syndrome so matter-of-factly. Has anti-doomerism spread to nearly every topic, or is Kessler syndrome really something whose severity has been massively overstated? Opportunity to shift my priors I suppose.

Kessler syndrome is way overstated. One way to tell is talk about it closing off space. That can't happen, it is possible to cross debris bands with low danger.

People also don't talk about different orbits. We can use higher low earth orbits if lower orbits are blocked.

Also, it is possible to clean up debris. The low cost launch means lower cost cleanup. My understanding is that big objects are most dangerous cause they would cause a lot of debris.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#53

Post by trhway »

dstroot wrote: post #25
dig1 wrote: post #13

IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

Additional concern is the push to get it added to indices immediately. Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs.

>Forcing it into our retirement funds, 401ks and IRAs.

Not just forcing it into. Forcing the funds to fight for it betting the stock rice higher and higher in a runaway style - the effect created by limited float and high valuation as the funds tracking indexes would try to get the amount reflecting the proportion of the valuation of the company vs. the whole tracked index valuation, and with such huge valuation the limited float leads to the price rise (similar to the short squeeze) and the higher the price on the float the higher the valuation, rinse and repeat...

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#54

Post by jmuguy »

Sidio wrote: post #3

As is the case with Elon's companies (and a bit of the market itself), it feels like any logical valuation has no impact on the actual stock price.

The irrational exuberance around Tesla was at least somewhat grounded in reality. There were some possible future(s) where it was really going to take off and completely redefine the auto industry. Then of course things went really off the rails with the Cybertruck, pivot to robotics, and just seemingly giving up on their existing line of business to go chasing whatever bong fueled dream Musk is having this quarter.

SpaceX is on a whole new level of bullshit. I think all these guys know how to do is double down. If the hype isn't working, its not stupid and big enough, so you start talking about transhumanism and singularity and other BS in your SEC filings.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#55

Post by taude »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

I'm with you on this. I think the market bubble can stay alive and well a lot longer than you can survive an open short position.

I think we're still a ways away from CEOs admitting that AI actually can't cut the cost of human capital in half.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#57

Post by taeric »

dig1 wrote: post #13

IMHO, still too much. Someone posted this link [1] recently. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

Holy crap is that an amusing/depressing video. Assuming the financial shenanigans outlined in it are even partially accurate, how the heck is this getting allowed?

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#58

Post by cynicalkane »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

Tesla is a meme stock like GameStop, but for a good fraction of America, so the market cap can be much larger. As long as TSLA owners don't care about the stock defying gravity, it will continue to do so.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#59

Post by kibwen »

RoddaWallPro wrote: post #50

I want to buy options against QQQ so badly -- but Tesla has traded at a crazy multiple of revenue/profits for a very long time, so I'm wondering if Elon/AI hype will keep these stocks high longer than I want to pay the risk premium for (options).

The fact that Tesla's stock price is so evidently detached from the performance of the company itself makes me wonder whether or not a public SpaceX will cause those investors who are just trying to ride the Musk train to exit Tesla stock and dump everything they can into SpaceX instead.

Re: Morningstar values SpaceX at $780B, half its IPO target

#60

Post by [deleted] »

MattDamonSpace wrote: post #45
jbverschoor wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Idk… The original “revenue thesis” was that SpaceX, with landing orbital rocket boosters, can undercut all competitors and essentially have a monopoly on payload-to-orbit, and that their lower prices would massive increase the market. Seems a fine business. But then a couple years ago they say “actually with this brand new technological edge we can spin up a monopoly on an entirely NEW industry, Space Internet” and w…

[deleted]
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