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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#821

Post by rurp »

rustystump wrote: post #806
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Very silly question but cant someone just spin up an index cutting out spacex? Like even an etf that is nothing more than an sp500 sans non profitable companies?

Yes that's definitely possible and will probably happen. The big hurdle is traction though. How many people will know about it and be willing/able to shift into it? A lot of passive investments are effectively locked in by unrealized gains or limited 401k provider options.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#822

Post by tech_ken »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #208
themafia wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've produced the cheapest way Were we struggling to do this before? Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Was some other achievement held back because we couldn't accomplish this? What is now enabled? > to get any payload into space. A limited set of payloads into space. No vehicle can get "any payload" to space at a fixed price. > The benefits are easy to miss, You've listed a bunch of reasons to publ…

> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

> Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does

Is that before or after the program achieves profitability?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#823

Post by tristanj »

Zigurd wrote: post #780
me551ah wrote: post #692

None of these companies have any MOAT. LLMs are getting better at a rapid pace and in a year or two, Chinese LLMs should easily catch up with the best of the models. Models have kind of reached a saturation point and that’s why OpenAI and Anthropic are doing an IPO now. Because a year down the line when their lead diminishes even more, they would be worth lesser money. SpaceX has clients to put payloads into space, b…

SpaceX would tell you to look at how profitable is Starlink. Two things about that: you have to replace the infrastructure every five years while terrestrial infrastructure electronics lasts at least twice as long, and inert stuff like towers and fiber lasts for decades. And you can drive a truck to where it's located if there is a problem. Secondly, terrestrial infrastructure keeps expanding into the rural areas tha…

Several issues:

1) The short lifespan is intentional. There is no reason to keep satellites beyond a few years because older satellites quickly become obsolete. The first generation Starlink sats are now 4 generations old, and are practically ancient at this point. SpaceX wants older satellites to fail, so they can be replaced by updated ones.

2) SpaceX could easily increase the lifespan of Starlink satellites to 10-15+ years, but they don't want to, because of (1), and because they are waiting for Starship to launch larger satellites at 10x lower cost.

3) Despite continually replacing satellites every ~5 years, Starlink is operating at a very profitable 40%+ profit margin.

4) Starlink is expanding to direct-to-cell 5G at speeds up to 150Mbps, which vastly expands the TAM from just broadband usage to all cellular data usage. Rural areas may never get a terrestrial cellular buildout, since it will be cheaper for companies to partner with SpaceX for coverage than to build their own towers. A single cellular tower can cost upwards of >$250k.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#824

Post by deadbabe »

rc_mob wrote: post #801
deadbabe wrote: post #615

Spacex is worth buying. The best chance to make a lot of money is buying stock before the economics make sense. By the time SpaceX looks like a good company on paper with strong profits… the price will be so high you have little chance of making anything significant. If it’s a long term hold, consider how far away retirement is for you. Also, moon bases are coming. The AI companies IMO are fucked. In the next few yea…

Warning to readers-- do not take stock advice from random comments on the internet

It’s not a random comment, it’s a comment from Hackernews which is filled with smart people who are tapped deep into these industries.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#825

Post by ijidak »

zwarag wrote: post #429
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

By the time you see the applications, the market will have moved on to value the next set of future cash flows.

If the market only valued the obvious, investors would jump in to buy the price up, until it met the average expectations.

The market might be wrong, but the question is not: "Have you yet to see?", but rather, "What do you see in the next three to five years?"

Otherwise, how could investors ever invest in a startup?

Startups never have revenues to justify their initial valuations.

It's a bet on the future.

Investors are future looking.

Consumers are present looking.

We didn't see LLM harnesses coming even two years ago. Now they generate billions per month.

Investors can't wait until reality materializes to make their estimations of the future.

That's why investing is hard.

You have to try to predict the future.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#826

Post by soperj »

camillomiller wrote: post #619
tristanj wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

You couldn’t have picked a better argument to show how this bias is exactly what’s making tech people think this shift is ubiquitous. “It works extremely well for coding, in which I am a domain expert, so why wouldn’t it work for all the other domains I absolutely know nothing about?”

It doesn't even work that well for coding.

Otherwise Github wouldn't have 14% down time in the last 3 months.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#827

Post by c22 »

foobarian wrote: post #765
neogodless wrote: post #723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general you should never "sell your 401k." Period. (Short of using it for income during retirement.) What you should do is have an Investor Policy Statement[0]. This should contain at least two things: - your desired Asset Allocation (e.g. 30% U.S. stocks, 30% International stocks, 20% U.S. bonds, 20% International bonds) which should be decided upon based on specific, personal goals and risk tolerance - your stri…

Not sure if OP meant literally sell, or just rebalance out of stocks. TBH I've been considering sliding over to all bonds for a time, since there is no tax event if funds stay in the account. But the numbers don't seem that high at the end of the day.

If you try to time the market and you sell at the exact peak you still have to time the market again and buy back at the correct bottom. If you miss either of these you're likely leaving long term performance on the table.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#829

Post by tshaddox »

eru wrote: post #562
tshaddox wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That ignores the actual issue here, which is the change in rules. Index funds already seek to own the entire market, and when most people chose these index funds there were rules about when newly listed stocks get purchased by the funds. And now those rules are being changed.

> Index funds already seek to own the entire market, [...] No, it depends on the index in question.

Yes, most index funds don't literally intend to own the entire market for any sufficiently broad interpretation of the word "entire."

But the point is that we have notable index funds which are marketed to customers as having the intention to own segments of the market according to certain rules, and they are changing those rules with relatively short notice and for reasons that seem suspicious to many customers.

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