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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#511

Post by philipallstar »

kelnos wrote: post #468
bradleybuda wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

The problem is I'm already in a S&P500-tracking ETF, for a decently large amount of money. Selling it off would be a big taxable event for me, something I don't want to do.

Would you be taxed even if you put it straight into another fund? Genuine question.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#512

Post by matwood »

hliyan wrote: post #450
freetime2 wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't like this either, but from the article: > Although Nasdaq has already shortened the “seasoning” period before index inclusion to 15 trading days and FTSE Russell has slashed its waiting time to five days (and S&P Dow Jones is reportedly considering something similar), most share indices weight firms in proportion to the value only of shares they have released for public trading (the “free float”). For SpaceX,…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 0.1% of S&P 500 seems exceedingly huge when you consider how much of the economy is represented in the S&P 500.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

At .1% they'll have the same weight as something like DoorDash.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#513

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

Havoc wrote: post #501
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many large cap ETFs out there: https://etfdb.com/etfs/size/large-cap/ You could switch to one that focuses on stocks which pay dividends, for example. That should provide a bit of protection against an AI market crash: https://etfdb.com/etf/VIG/#etf-ticker-profile So-called "smart beta" ETFs are also interesting. https://etfdb.com/themes/smart-beta-etfs/ Here are some factors I would expect to rule out the…

That’ll do precisely zero to protect against the effect described. In fact the opposite - the dividend paying stocks will by mathematically necessity be among those ETFs sell down to buy these IPOs

I believe you may have gotten discussion threads mixed up, but in any case: I expect that as SpaceX investors sell their SpaceX stock, they will buy ordinary equities to diversify.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#515

Post by kaon_2 »

hedora wrote: post #200
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I do too, and pay $200/month, but anthropic’s margins on that revenue are negative. What’s the long term plan? Make it up on margin? 100% tariffs on Chinese open weight models? I don’t plan on pulling from my 401k for decades, so the long term plan is the part I care about.

Why would Anthropic margin's be negative? Inference is practically free for them, so what costs do they have for an additional subscription?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#516

Post by elAhmo »

testrun wrote: post #86
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

Please don't ask those rational questions, revenue is all that maters.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#517

Post by elAhmo »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #124
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

They reported 559 million in Q2 of this year. OpenAI on the other hand, is nowhere near this.

Not using GAAP, so this is just PR for them.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#518

Post by TrackerFF »

ExoticPearTree wrote: post #496
DarkNova6 wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is actually 3 companies, one of which is profitable. The satellite business operates at a loss and xAI is a money burning furnace.

> The satellite business operates at a loss How come? On the books or they're actually selling internet cheaper than they source it? > xAI is a money burning furnace So far in the AI business, it looks like only Anthropic might be profitable in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of nonprofitable companies have IPOd for billions with the hopes that one day they will become profitable.

One crucial thing we've learned for the past few years:

- You can't blindly trust the US, or US businesses. Even less when it comes to critical infrastructure.

- You can't rely on underwater cables to be safe.

Starlink is a proven technology. They were the first major mover. But they will not be the last.

It'll be sort of like Tesla cars. For a long time they completely dominated the EV market, but now others are catching up. Yet Tesla is valued more than all other EV manufacturers combined. Some of this is of course from their vertical integration, but most of it is just hopium.

Same will happen with both Starlink, SpaceX, and other products under the Musk umbrella.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#519

Post by philipallstar »

lenerdenator wrote: post #319
d--b wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, the problem is trust. Regular people want to invest so they can make money and companies want people to invest so that they can raise money. So pretty much everybody wants the 401k money to be invested in the stock market. But the issue is that investing in the stock market is very technical, so some smart asses invented the index funds to make it easy for daddy and mummy to put their retirement accounts to wor…

> People are not finance specialists and they are heavily incentivized to buy index funds, so they need to trust that the people who are telling them to invest are not hiding things from them. If that trust is broken, lawsuits will follow. A "lawsuit" isn't a concern for the likes of Musk. He's got the money to pay lawyers, politicians, and influencers. He's spread this risk around to the right people; if he goes dow…

> At a certain point you have to start jailing people for long periods of time. I don't mean the Milken, Belfort, or Skilling treatment. I mean being placed away for 30+ years in medium-security facilities at the least.

Bernie Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison, if that counts. But then he had committed a crime, which is the usual "certain point" we wait for.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#520

Post by Havoc »

gman83 wrote: post #483
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This seems like straight up fraud? Presumably all to bail out early investors?

That’s the new paradigm of US leadership. Not laws or principles but just „who’s going to stop me“
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