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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

331–340 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#331
post #311
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares

Steadily starting about 60 days (Q2 earnings) after the IPO.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also worth asking what SpaceXLAI's plan is to make money. $22.7T of their $28.5T Total Addressable Market is... Drumroll... Enterprise AI! That's the plan, that's what we are investing in: spacex and Tesla and Twitter are all side shows, to sell AI. That's what everyone's absurdly overpriced forced passive investment is going to. https://bsky.app/profile/segyges.bsky.social/post/3mnan7hr2j... There is nowhere near en…

AI in space, for all that sweet sweet latency.

More like for all that sweet sweet cooling capacity.

EDIT: guys, it's sarcastic... since the parent was talking about latency, cooling is something that is even worse in space than latency

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#334

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You're claiming without evidence that the bureaucracy and regulators are corrupt to the core? No way I refuse to hear another bad word about the government, they are above reproach sir.

We’ve really hit that point, where our institutions are transparently corrupt, and everyone knows it, and both the guilty and the public just say “yep, we’re doing the corrupt thing”.

It’s depressing as hell, and it’s going to go out with the proverbial whimper, but at least we’ve got to be close to rock bottom, right?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why else would they change the rule ?

> Why else would they change the rule ? These indices aim to replicate the market. They’re not trying to pick stocks. There is a serious argument for saying they fail to replicate the market if they structurally exclude trillions of dollars of it.

It defeats the purpose of the value setting part of the IPO if there are guaranteed buyers. It would be better for the market and for the indices if they only hopped onto new entries of the market after any initial instability has passed.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#337
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

With these kinds of things, I want to see comparisons to trained, alert humans. Cut out all the distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, intoxicated cases from the baseline. That includes rushed doctors at the end of a long shift. A self driving car doing better than a drunk on the freeway doesn't reassure me that it'll do better than sober me in a snowstorm.

That would be a fine bar if you could ensure your doctors or nearby drivers aren't distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, or intoxicated.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#338
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI in space, for all that sweet sweet latency.

More like for all that sweet sweet cooling capacity. EDIT: guys, it's sarcastic... since the parent was talking about latency, cooling is something that is even worse in space than latency

If putting data centers in a vacuum is a good idea why not just put them in a thermos bottle here on earth?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#340
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, didn’t know that. If SpaceX tanks and 401ks are left holding the bag, this could result in the biggest class action lawsuit ever.

why? the cards are on the table. If you buy a turd from me after I disclose the composition, that is on you

Indeed. Everyone should be moving their funds out of target date funds right now and into medium and small cap stock funds.

It's quite sad that the pillar of American life that is the 401k is given to shady fund managers. The law should be that if you manage a 401k you must be a fiduciary. If that were the case then no one would be bag holding these fake valuations because they'd be liable for negligence. Right now they're just in on the scam.

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