Haha I read the headline as "confidently submits", thought it was a dig at OpenAI's CFO.
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
371–380 of 476 posts
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#372Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#373Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
The narrative is that inference on existing models is profitable. All of the profits and many billions of additional capital invested go into training the next model, which is some multiple more expensive to train than the last. Each new model generation also leads to more revenue growth. Newer models are more compute-efficient when distilled (so could possibly be higher margin) but also they work on longer time-hori…
Wait till people find out you can have the same or close to the same output at 1/100th of a price. You cant possibly believe we'll be just spending more and more in tokens endlessly. And if the margins are so good for anthropic they will collapse. There's too much competition in the field.
I don’t believe similar scores on small bounded tasks mean models are interchangeable. I’ve found that heavy token-burning workflows are good for my productivity (letting multiple sessions run async working of different stuff). Claude ultracode is an easy example to point to, but there are tons of harnesses out there doing similar things. I find using a higher quality model matters because it affects how far it can get unattended before heading the wrong direction. I’ve tried using the cheaper/faster models and it’s a real downgrade (or completely useless). A model that’s even smarter with longer time horizon would be even better for my productivity. I don’t think we are at the ceiling for model quality or price. My employer pays a lot for my tokens but it’s still a lot less than they pay me.
I agree Anthropic faces some risk they could get commoditized, but on the other hand if things go well they could end up leading adoption into more industries. There are upside and downside scenarios. Recursive self-improvement is obviously an important unknown and could lead to winner-take-all.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…
They only go into the index if they are actually worth enough to go into the index. If they drop below a certain value they will naturally be kicked out of the index just like any other company. I.e. if they are not actually in the top 500 US companies then they will not be in the 500 index. The risk of any one company is balanced by all the other companies in the index also. If they really are a scam, their value wi…
By the time they drop and being kicked out (if they do) the insiders already dumped their shares. Not to mention now all the index fund holders will rush to sell creating even more price pressure.
Shorting (itself being a bad idea for regular investors) also breaks the mantra of passive investing, 401k or otherwise. It’s almost impossible to short right after IPO because of low float and high margin risk.
These mega IPOs are just using passive investors as backstop.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#376Earlier quoted context omitted.
What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
> indexes changed their rules NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.
I was under the impression NASDAQ pursued it for their exchange business, not index revenue, but I suppose it could be both.
In addition to the IPO, I expect there will be a lot of option and derivative services
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
The narrative is that inference on existing models is profitable. All of the profits and many billions of additional capital invested go into training the next model, which is some multiple more expensive to train than the last. Each new model generation also leads to more revenue growth. Newer models are more compute-efficient when distilled (so could possibly be higher margin) but also they work on longer time-hori…
Wait till people find out you can have the same or close to the same output at 1/100th of a price. You cant possibly believe we'll be just spending more and more in tokens endlessly. And if the margins are so good for anthropic they will collapse. There's too much competition in the field.
There's the "how much of my company exists in a black box controlled by some asshole" angle as well, but in my mind the biggest issue is that current models are already capable of saturating a dev in like four hours.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#378Curious how someone with a 401k, who didn't want their retirement to be used by these companies to buy at an inflated price, would go about opting out of this. Typically I just have my 401k in an index fund so that things have to become established before they're added. This seems like it's circumventing that, and I would be inclined to vote with my wallet. But everything around 401k index funds that I see are very o…
If your 401k offers it you could look into an "equity income" fund. Not for the dividend income per se, but because these a are big stable companies with a track record of paying dividends.
Also, consumer staples are known for holding their ground during downturns.
But the general advice given is to accept that you probably can't beat the market so don't overthink it and just own the whole thing.
Also keep an eye on expense ratios. A lot of 401k providers gouge you on anything but the basic funds. So you'd have to beat the market by that much more.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.
Becoming public allows everyday people to access the wealth generation machine your created. Sometimes I think that the endless cynicism around corporations that exists online is the real ploy by capitalists to keep people poor. It seems to be pretty damn effective at making people allergic to claiming their slice of the pie.
Not after the insiders and investors milked most of the upsides already. As of today:
- ABNB right at around their IPO price. - Uber is 75% up… after 6 years. - SNOW came back to break even only after the recent surge.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell that to everyones 50 year old mother who doesnt even know how to login to their account, let alone modify their allocations.
50 isn’t old? I would expect a 50 year old mother to be competent.
It's like the very first golden rule, do not expect competency from another human being.