Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

181–190 of 476 posts

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#181

Post by torben-friis »

aspenmartin wrote: post #138
atleastoptimal wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what is going to cause the market to “sneeze”?

Exactly. Incredibly hard to understand what hard, non-headline-quoting, steel man arguments there are about how exactly the market will hiccup. And as if all of the AI companies somehow know this and are looking to IPO themselves out when anthropic revenue is growing > 10x per year for multiple years. Feels like a massive disconnect between “this will all implode” people and any real numbers.

They need a price consumers can't stomach or are unwilling to pay, and without that the company is profitable but not able to justify investments. That's the argument.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#182

Post by Robdel12 »

satvikpendem wrote: post #123
johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.

> Compounding the problem, labs in China often release dual-use capable models as open-weight. Once a model is open-weight, safeguards that do exist can be removed, making the model available to any state or non-state actor to use for malicious purposes, including the cyber and CBRN misuse those safeguards were built to prevent.

https://www.anthropic.com/research/2028-ai-leadership

They are already starting that now.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#183

Post by WarmWash »

johnQdeveloper wrote: post #155
satvikpendem wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.

Probably but the reality is I doubt that actually works outside of US government contracts in practice simply because Europe/et al aren't going to follow their lead.

Europe has been slowly committing economic suicide for the last 30 years by outsourcing everything to the US and China (and Russia), and it looks like maybe Europeans are finally starting to wake up to this.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if a rash of digital sovereignty movements in the near future hamper Chinese model adoption.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#184

Post by datsci_est_2015 »

jknoepfler wrote: post #173
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

While unlikely to happen at scale, by way of anecdata I'll say that I and my extended family have almost all shifted money away from funds that are heavily coupled to the fate of GenAI. The bottom is going to fall out of the market and it's going to take years to recover, I don't see any reason to suffer through that (and neither do my retirement-age relatives). I'm after steady gains in an approximately efficient ma…

What’s your portfolio? I don’t particularly have a wealth of investment options in my employer-provided 401k (ADP Workforce Now)

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#185

Post by reactordev »

noelsusman wrote: post #81
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

Very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ 100 as an investment option. Last I checked it was <1%.

No but your funds are backed by ones that are

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#186

Post by aspenmartin »

torben-friis wrote: post #181
aspenmartin wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Incredibly hard to understand what hard, non-headline-quoting, steel man arguments there are about how exactly the market will hiccup. And as if all of the AI companies somehow know this and are looking to IPO themselves out when anthropic revenue is growing > 10x per year for multiple years. Feels like a massive disconnect between “this will all implode” people and any real numbers.

They need a price consumers can't stomach or are unwilling to pay, and without that the company is profitable but not able to justify investments. That's the argument.

I'm interested in your argument but who needs a price for what exactly? Like token costs are unsustainable argument? Or are you saying they need a stock price to keep their valuation high?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#187

Post by WarmWash »

parthdesai wrote: post #79
40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.

Becoming public allows everyday people to access the wealth generation machine your created.

Sometimes I think that the endless cynicism around corporations that exists online is the real ploy by capitalists to keep people poor. It seems to be pretty damn effective at making people allergic to claiming their slice of the pie.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#188

Post by seattle_spring »

baal80spam wrote: post #39
root-parent wrote: post #19

Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble. "The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

> Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble. I've seen this comment on HN at least 5 times already.

I've been seeing this sentiment since I got into professional software development nearly 20 years ago.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#189

Post by glitch13 »

40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

"Going public" means something completely different now, especially for these companies in the news (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, etc).

Going public used to mean selling a portion of your company for the capital required to grow. Ideally John Q. Public buys stock, the company grows, and they can sell the stock for more money.

These companies already have the capital required to grow from private investment, and already grew; they're behemoths. The act of "going public" are those private investors using the public market to cash out their investment. The exponential growth the public buyers are expecting to see has most likely already happened.

Post reply on HN