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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#151

Post by throw0101c »

nostrademons wrote: post #137
noelsusman wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ 100 as an investment option. Last I checked it was <1%.

Apparently the rule change also affects CRSP, which is the index behind Vanguard's Total Stock Market (VTI) index funds. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo... VTI in turn is the primary holding of most of Vanguard's Target Date retirement funds, which are widely held in 401ks.

Recent changes:

> CRSP indexes were also recently changed to better accommodate fast entry. New IPOs are eligible for CRSP's suite of indexes after five trading days, provided they pass the index's eligibility and investability screens. Previously, these screens included having at least 10% of shares qualifying as freely tradeable (known as float shares outstanding, or FSO). However, in April the methodology changed to allow stocks with either 10% FSO or approximately $3.3 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization to be eligible for index inclusion. The weighting of stocks in CRSP indexes is also based on free float, which should help address the investability challenges associated with thinly traded stocks.

* https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/some-indexes-accelerate-e...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#152

Post by dnautics »

alemanek wrote: post #122
boringg wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.

S-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.

sure but it would be really weird if there wasn't one

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#153

Post by reacharavindh »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market?

I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out of index funds for a bit until the price of these new stocks come crashing eventually?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#154

Post by johnQdeveloper »

fieldcny wrote: post #87
johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

You speak so authoritatively about quality and performance of these models, yet there are no quantitative metrics that correlate to real world outcomes that indicate that the quality and performance of these models is anything but subjective noise and classic benchmark nonsense. A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due. Tha $500m dollars…

> You speak so authoritatively about quality and performance of these models, yet there are no quantitative metrics that correlate to real world outcomes that indicate that the quality and performance of these models is anything but subjective noise and classic benchmark nonsense.

I'm responsible for AI roll out at a small business and we've had data science go over these things internally in terms of what results we get for 12+ months now. Its just my experience that is roughly the results we've seen using Deepseek, etc. and comparing cost/results vs. Anthropic/ChatGPT.

> A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due.

It was sourced from one anonymous source. Its highly unlikely to be true in my view, but hey, you do you.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#155

Post by johnQdeveloper »

satvikpendem wrote: post #123
johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.

Probably but the reality is I doubt that actually works outside of US government contracts in practice simply because Europe/et al aren't going to follow their lead.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#156

Post by lovich »

cdelsolar wrote: post #80
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.

I’m not sure I could. Even starting to research how to prevent being affected by these changes shows that there’s layers upon layers of systems that are being manipulated, and there are costs charged for moving the capital in my retirement account to other accounts.

Saying you as in any random person can protect themself from a group of dedicated experts who also have access to levers the common person can’t pull, is kind of not believable on its face.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#157

Post by gehsty »

parthdesai wrote: post #79
40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.

Sustainable business models that need insano numbers of funding rounds?

We don’t actually know if their business model is sustainable. If they were public we would have a better answer to this.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#158

Post by throw0101c »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #29
thomascountz wrote: post #28

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

> Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

Just because it's a bubble doesn't mean money can't be made.

If you're worried it and the risk involved, perhaps go from 100% equities (100/0) to an allocation that has some bonds (90/10, 80/20, etc). Rebalance as things get out of whack.

There are products that do this rebalancing for you: target-date funds that increase bond allocation as you get closer to retirement, or fixed-allocation all-in-one funds (VASGX, VSMGX; CA: VEQT/XEQT).

Having some bonds and rebalancing would have saved US domestic investors in the so-called Lost Decade of the '00s:

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#159

Post by cm2187 »

reacharavindh wrote: post #153
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

These stocks crashing (not saying it will or won’t happen), means AI is crashing, and that will be a much broader selloff than these 3. Add Microsoft, Micron, Amazon, Oracle, Nvidia, Supermicro, Dell, etc, any company that has direct or indirect exposure to the massive AI boom (and possibly their lenders).

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#160

Post by ideoe »

alephnerd wrote: post #148
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

That is not why you are seeing a deluge in listings. It takes 1-2 years to make a company IPO ready and is a massive operational headache, and the controls needed take multiple quarters to implement. The reason you are seeing a boom in IPOs versus 2023-25 is because a large portion of funds that are from the 2016-20 vintage are about to hit the 10 year mark when LPs need to be made whole. This means you need to exit…

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