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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#131

Post by Avicebron »

QuotedForTruth wrote: post #121
exabrial wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag. Dumb question: why couldn't retirement accounts simply not purchase these?

These funds don’t invest actively (picking individual stocks). Instead they invest in indexes that track larger portions of the market. So they’ll automatically buy once the company is listed on the NASDAQ.

Why do I imagine that no one whose retirement account is about to get smoked is in place to make decisions about whether or not this is a good investment

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#134

Post by adastra22 »

chinathrow wrote: post #75
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

How do these people sleep at night coming up with schemes like that?

On a big pile of money surrounded by beautiful women.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#136

Post by tucnak »

boc wrote: post #127
root-parent wrote: post #19

Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble. "The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...

The amount of actual, hard cash revenue these companies are making is a different ballgame from the dot-com bubble.

Cisco was making loads of hard cash revenue during dotcom.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#137

Post by nostrademons »

noelsusman wrote: post #81
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

Very few 401ks offer the NASDAQ 100 as an investment option. Last I checked it was <1%.

Apparently the rule change also affects CRSP, which is the index behind Vanguard's Total Stock Market (VTI) index funds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo...

VTI in turn is the primary holding of most of Vanguard's Target Date retirement funds, which are widely held in 401ks.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#138

Post by aspenmartin »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #133
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

what is going to cause the market to “sneeze”?

Exactly. Incredibly hard to understand what hard, non-headline-quoting, steel man arguments there are about how exactly the market will hiccup. And as if all of the AI companies somehow know this and are looking to IPO themselves out when anthropic revenue is growing > 10x per year for multiple years. Feels like a massive disconnect between “this will all implode” people and any real numbers.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#139

Post by xboxnolifes »

cdelsolar wrote: post #80
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.

Many individuals can, but good luck reaching out and convincing the entire country that they should look into making changes to their retirement fund allocations without sounding like a kook.

There's maybe, at best, 1% of the country even aware that this might be a problem.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#140

Post by throw0101c »

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

> The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading.

Official justification, and other changes besides timeframe, e.g.:

> First, eligibility and company size. As multi‑class share structures have become more common, we now consider both listed and unlisted shares when determining eligibility and ranking. This allows the index to reflect a company's full economic size, while index weighting remains based solely on listed shares. This change affects who qualifies for inclusion, not how constituents are weighted.

* https://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/nasdaq100-index-methodology-...

> A new method to calculate the market capitalization of companies to determine their eligibility for inclusion in the index. It involves adding listed stock and unlisted shares that are part of different share classes. Scrapping a rule that requires companies to float a minimum 10% of their shares. Companies with a low float will receive a lower weighting on the index. […]

* https://www.reuters.com/business/new-nasdaq-rules-include-fa...

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