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Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

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Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#141

Post by wolvoleo »

epistasis wrote: post #100
xenospn wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock markets are ruled by hype and fomo. Good corporate governance has little to do with returns, unfortunately.

Short term gains are hype and fomo, but if you're holding index funds long like I am, then returns have a lot more to do with performance. And given the lack of hype around ESG, it seems like an exceptional time to buy in to it.

That's also the kind of thing that pension funds should be investing in. They shouldn't invest in hypes as they're by definition in for the long haul and eventually hypes always blow.

Sure you can make a lot of money but only if you know when to get out before the crash. And that's something that doesn't gel well with long term investment.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#142

Post by bryanlarsen »

epistasis wrote: post #94
fluidcruft wrote: post #14

It's really concerning given how the indexes are changing rules to fast-track SpaceX being forced into index funds. S&P is also working on updates to S&P 500 to force it down everyone's throats quickly and algorithmically.

I'm usually a Boglehead, with some exceptions, and one exception I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX for the next few years. I'm sure there's some combo of options that would do it. Probably finding an ESG-focused ETF would do it. ESG basically meant "good governance, we follow laws" which translated into better governed public companies that therefore had better returns, as one…

There's an ETF for everything out there. (There are more ETF's than stocks). There'll be a large market for "S&P500 without SpaceX" et al, so it's seems likely somebody will fill it. It probably will have to use a worse name because of the S&P trademark.

P.S. Here's an example of S&P500 without the magnificent 7 https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#143

Post by parliament32 »

daft_pink wrote: post #137
parliament32 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX I think it's less complicated than you'd think.. just buy LEAPS puts proportional to your exposure.

LEAPS are very expensive.

Because they're long-term, yes. It'll really come down to how much you're willing to pay for monthly Elon-shenanigans-insurance.

I'm very interested in seeing how the market prices these options after the IPO.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#144

Post by Root_Denied »

hparadiz wrote: post #30
horsawlarway wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I also don't want to eat a tasty morsel if you roll it around in the dirt and serve it up covered in bugs and hair. And that's basically what SpaceX is right now after you account for xAI and twitter in the mix. So I'd love to own a piece of the SpaceX from a decade ago - but the current offering smells pretty bad. Combined with the fact that at this point, Musk clearly isn't opposed to running a business with…

The current SpaceX is in a far better financial and operational position than 10 years ago. By an order of magnitude. 90% of all payload to orbit right now is SpaceX alone. Starlink is profitable all on it's own. Right now. And they are just now picking up steam. American Airlines just signed onto Starlink just last week. This company is most likely gonna be the Coca-Cola of transportation between celestial bodies in…

>The current SpaceX is in a far better financial and operational position than 10 years ago. By an order of magnitude. 90% of all payload to orbit right now is SpaceX alone. Starlink is profitable all on it's own. Right now.

I don't think anyone is really arguing these particular points.

>And they are just now picking up steam. American Airlines just signed onto Starlink just last week. This company is most likely gonna be the Coca-Cola of transportation between celestial bodies in solar system for the next 500 years but people on here are arguing over peanuts. On HN of all places.

This is speculation based on SpaceX's trajectory to this point, however we've seen Musk make some decisions that bring the long term future prospects of SpaceX into question. While Musk remains unbeholden to anyone else, which an IPO doesn't change, he's the biggest risk factor in the equation - and that's not speculation, it's an objective assessment of what's possible within the corporate structure of SpaceX.

What's subjective is whether you anticipate Musk will add more trash to the pile. Was the Twitter/xAI acquisition by SpaceX, with it's stupidly obvious fraudulent valuations, an outlier of some kind? Or was it a predictor of future actions that put similar economic strain on SpaceX, and would affect it's future stability and economic viability? Since Musk is capable of crashing and burning the whole of SpaceX by himself, without anyone legally capable of vetoing his decisions, it's a valid line of questioning.

Personally I feel I've seen enough of how Musk operates that I can be confident he'll make similar decisions in the future, and that makes me consider SpaceX a high risk investment. I'm also far from alone in this assessment, and there's a valid concern from investors of those index funds about being railroaded into adding SpaceX to their mix.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#145

Post by ls612 »

jocaal wrote: post #128
BJones12 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because the unlimited risk of shorting is balanced (hedged) by the unlimited upside of holding the same number of shares via the ETF.

You cannot however sell only SpaceX shares from your ETF to cover your short's losses. So due to liquidity issues I wouldn't recommend your strategy.

We aren’t talking about penny stocks we are talking about a tech giant. At the scales that any ordinary investor is operating at there will be no liquidity issues with shorting it and if it is in your index fund the short and long positions will directly offset if you size it correctly leading you to have net zero exposure to SpaceX.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#146

Post by zardo »

radicalbyte wrote: post #132
zardo wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Though (at least to my knowledge) Zuckerberg doesn't have a history of abusing his authority to make deals that advantage other companies he owns at the expense of Facebook. E.g. SpaceX buying up large numbers of Cybertrucks Tesla couldn't sell at MSRP, not even negotiating a good fleet sale deal.

Where did that $70B from the metaverse go to?

As far as I know, he lost that value with honest bad decision making.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#147

Post by fguerraz »

Danox wrote: post #81
rvz wrote: post #6

Good. Would love to buy SpaceX stock at a 90% discount after the IPO and the next tech / AI correction.

Why is it a good thing to buy something that is financially not well run up front, and usually things don’t get better as time goes on however, if you’re in first, you can just sell it down the road and let someone else hold the bag in time. Tesla was a great ride if you got in early but long-term from this point on if you had any significant amount of money, why would you buy them now? Unless you like sleepless nigh…

It’s a good thing because it’s definitely an interesting company worth investing into long term. But not at this valuation. 10% seems reasonable given the profits perspective.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#148

Post by Galanwe »

parliament32 wrote: post #140
BJones12 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because the unlimited risk of shorting is balanced (hedged) by the unlimited upside of holding the same number of shares via the ETF.

Yeah you're not wrong. I didn't think about it that way because you can't really break something out of an ETF basket, and you also don't control the ETF basket, but if you think those risks are minimal it's probably fine to just compare dollars-to-dollars. Personally I would still probably go with the long put strategy unless the price difference is exorbitant.

> also don't control the ETF basket

The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise.

> I would still probably go with the long put strategy

Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#149

Post by parliament32 »

Galanwe wrote: post #148
parliament32 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah you're not wrong. I didn't think about it that way because you can't really break something out of an ETF basket, and you also don't control the ETF basket, but if you think those risks are minimal it's probably fine to just compare dollars-to-dollars. Personally I would still probably go with the long put strategy unless the price difference is exorbitant.

> also don't control the ETF basket The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise. > I would still probably go with the long put strategy Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.

The ETF that seemingly arbitrarily changes its rules? In such a short time frame too? This change is going proposal to implementation in.. what, two weeks total? I don't know about you but I don't keep up on this stuff unless it hits the news like this one.

You are not entering a contract with a long put. You are buying a contract that, if you want, you can just let expire with no obligation to do anything. It's effectively simple insurance (as opposed to a short position, which is an actual liability, which will eat you alive in exceptional circumstances).

Re: Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'

#150

Post by radicalbyte »

SilverElfin wrote: post #42
fluidcruft wrote: post #14

It's really concerning given how the indexes are changing rules to fast-track SpaceX being forced into index funds. S&P is also working on updates to S&P 500 to force it down everyone's throats quickly and algorithmically.

The same rules are now affecting other big IPOs. I think Cerebras was confirmed as getting fast listing too even though they’re much smaller. It’s one big act of dumping on retail markets

They learned from the failure of crypto and have found their bag holders.
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