I’m curious how he got caught. Polymarket accounts should be untraceable
There's another way to find out, which is to track things from the other side. Highly likely Google has access logs on the data.
Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
161–170 of 234 posts
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#162Why are we wasting government money cracking down on Polymarket betting? The most offensive thing in this article is the government pretending Polymarket bets are securities. Prediction markets provide no benefit to society and don't need to exist.
> government pretending Polymarket bets are securities
Crypto prediction markets have an interest in being regulated like traditional exchanges since it opens up access to Wall Street market makers for increased liquidity.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
I once asked in Kalshi subreddit if insider trading was the entire point and my post was removed by the mods..
That [getting banned] doesn't tell you anything really, they probably just thought you were a troll. I get banned from subs sometimes by just asking a opposing question.
They literally have a marketing page about how they are "different"
https://kalshi.com/policy-center/insider-trading
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#164Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
[deleted]
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#165What would happen if some regular Joe, completely unrelated to any other user, watched for bets that could signal insider information and made significant profit themselves, too?
This is where a lot of the crypto scammers on x have moved, selling ai/bots to do this. It seems like the odds slip significantly after these large bets are filled.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#166So, after doing some light Googling and AI research, this doesn’t seem to be strictly an “insider trading” charge from the SEC.
It looks more like a broader fraud case. The charges are commodities fraud / Commodity Exchange Act violation, wire fraud, and money laundering, and the case is being brought by the DOJ.
So, lawyers, please correct me if I’m wrong, but this feels more like prosecutors found a legal framework to charge him for conduct that resembles insider trading. By contrast, if he had sold Google stock based on insider knowledge, that would have more directly implicated SEC insider trading rules.
So, functionally, it feels like an insider trading case, but technically, it isn’t one.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#167Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
Don't most gamblers already know that its all a scam and the house always wins?
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure but these things are not really "odds" anymore, right? The most searched terms might be a mystery to the general public , but not to the engineers at Google. It gets even murkier when you can influence the outcome. The exact temperature at an airport might be difficult to predict, but if you are able to hold up a hair drier to the sensor for a few minutes you can be pretty sure it won't be cold. When the other s…
I don't think this is entirely true. Polymarket is extremely transparent on user accounts and markets so you can see who is betting what, their other bets, and so on. The article mentions that other users fingered him for insider trading. That itself opens up an opportunity for profit, by simply following the trades on what he seems to be an insider on. It'd be like if you could see in real time what Nancy Pelosi was…
Some predictions are like "How many shoes will be thrown at the next Bush speech?" Just the presence of the question affects the outcome.
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#169So, after doing some light Googling and AI research, this doesn’t seem to be strictly an “insider trading” charge from the SEC. It looks more like a broader fraud case. The charges are commodities fraud / Commodity Exchange Act violation, wire fraud, and money laundering, and the case is being brought by the DOJ. So, lawyers, please correct me if I’m wrong, but this feels more like prosecutors found a legal framework…
My understanding - "insider trading" is specifically for securities, and brought by the SEC. The equivalent for commodities is called "market manipulation", brought by the CFTC. Market manipulation is a much harder thing to prove than insider trading.
This kind of reminds me of the OpenSea "insider trading" scandal. [0]
Not a lawyer, not legal advice, etc.
[0] - https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/09/...
Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
#170So, after doing some light Googling and AI research, this doesn’t seem to be strictly an “insider trading” charge from the SEC. It looks more like a broader fraud case. The charges are commodities fraud / Commodity Exchange Act violation, wire fraud, and money laundering, and the case is being brought by the DOJ. So, lawyers, please correct me if I’m wrong, but this feels more like prosecutors found a legal framework…
Yeah I’m not entirely sure how what he did was illegal. I hope he can afford good attorneys. Hard to see this as anything other than a way to take the heat off the White House for using insider information to profit on prop betting sites.