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I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

simonwillison.net

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. They are assuming ~10% global GDP growth instead of ~3%. You probably don't need the same %s if the pie grows a ton. I'm highly skeptical we get that growth, but if you aren't, it makes it easier to digest.

I mean this case with AI-productivity fires itself back when we talk about GDP. The more AI causes productivity increases, the less and less number of workers will be needed. This will heat up the job market even more and bring salaries down. Net effect of this productivity increase: less consumption by the masses, even though you may be producing more good and much more efficiently. A third effect also comes into pl…

>The more AI causes productivity increases, the less and less number of workers will be needed. This will heat up the job market even more and bring salaries down.

>Net effect of this productivity increase: less consumption by the masses, even though you may be producing more good and much more efficiently.

Big tech companies can't even create login flows and account recovery flows that work for everyone yet. There are countless stories of folks losing access to business Instagram accounts that get hacked, Google support from a human to fix a problem that is outside of their help articles is non-existent, etc etc. There's still so much "low-hanging fruit" IMO that isn't particularly fun or exciting to fix, but ask your average non-tech friend or family member what they think of the Facebook + Instagram security settings pages / sites / desktop-only settings.

Who is going to pay for all of these subscriptions that will power this GDP increase when average purchasing power of those outside of the top ~10% of earners is decreasing YoY? We're headed toward food and water shortages next to sprawling datacenters, not shared societal prosperity and a healthy middle class.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#163
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AutoCAD is $175 per user per month [1]. [1] https://www.autodesk.com/products/autocad/buy

AutoCAD is still the budget-friendly CAD program it has always been. You don't build big boats in AutoCAD.

Winch Design [0], which have built some of the world's largest superyachts [1], seem to be using AutoCad. [2] Afaik it's also the same with Lürssen (but don't quote me on that)

[0] https://winchdesign.com/ [1] https://www.superyachts.com/directory/1516/winch-design/flee... [2] https://www.autodesk.com/design-make/articles/naval-architec...

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're suggesting that 1 in 8 people worldwide, including every one from infants and the elderly, are knowledge workers. Are you sure that's what you mean? I'm not even sure that 1 in 8 people I know would qualify as a knowledge worker, let alone a knowledge worker that might profoundly benefit from on-the-horizon AI. And I'm in a highly skewed population.

Well around 40% of people work. I dont think its crazy to say around a third of jobs are knowledge jobs, but what do I know

85% of the world population lives outside of developed nations.

27% of the world's workforce is in agriculture (contrast to the US where it is 1-2%). 15% in manufacturing.

A lot of people work in "services" (especially in high income nations, where it's roughly three quarters) and some of those are knowledge workers... but a huge number of them are nail technicians or hairdressers or bartenders (etc etc).

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#165

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

The bottleneck has moved from producing a thing that works to knowing that the thing was the right thing to build. The more of the latter they can take on, the fewer knowledge workers are needed at all . So rather than 5% of every knowledge worker's salary going into tokens, 100% of the knowledge worker's total employment cost goes into tokens and you get a 20x productivity boost as a theoretical minimum across those…

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Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#166
post #49
post #22

200$ per month per seat is nothing . A single 3D CAD license pack for the guys in our R&D group costs multiple thousands of dollars per seat, per month. It's about time software seats get some love too.

AutoCAD is $175 per user per month [1]. [1] https://www.autodesk.com/products/autocad/buy

Cadence and Ansys have entered the chat. A bunch of other highly-specialized engineering software has entered the chat. Licenses are on the order of 10-100k/seat.

For a pretty funny comment about pricing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/chipdesign/comments/1ajrli2/cadence...

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#167

They've got, ballpark, $5t to $10t to make back in the next 5 years, or the hardware buildouts will start getting written down. This means we're going to need $1t+ per year in spending, per year, on tokens. 200m knowledge workers in the world, 30m developers. We're talking about a world where you need 5% of every knowledge workers salary to go into tokens. 20% if you're a developer. That's a _huge_ shift. Most people…

The bottleneck has moved from producing a thing that works to knowing that the thing was the right thing to build. The more of the latter they can take on, the fewer knowledge workers are needed at all . So rather than 5% of every knowledge worker's salary going into tokens, 100% of the knowledge worker's total employment cost goes into tokens and you get a 20x productivity boost as a theoretical minimum across those…

This is the same argument that has been historically made for outsourcing developers. Get 20 more devs for the cost of 1 dev in the US.

I suspect that AI will fail to pan out to the same extent for the same reason why outsourcing hasn't fully panned out (even though every company tries it after getting big enough).

The problems that will come up will be and always have been ongoing maintenance. AI is great at writing new code without a brain behind it, but once you get to the point where you need to refactor code, you start really needing someone with coding experience to guide the AI or veto it's mistakes.

I don't think that's really fixable even with a lot better AI. It's not something that ultimately comes out of the likes of github data.

I'm not saying that AI isn't going to make things better, btw, I just don't think we'll see a 20x improvement. Probably more like 1.5 or 2x.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#168
post #29

So how do openai and anthropic plan to keep customers when GLM-5.1 is just as good and open source and a lot cheaper? I don't see the business model working. My closest friend actually does automation software for large companies. He does not use Claude or openai at all. He primarily uses gpt 120b on cerebras and glm-5.1 for heavy thinking work. And some other small models for various tasks. All open source. And thes…

For coding assistance, I have tried OpenCode with several large open models through OpenRouter. All were fairly bad compared to Claude Opus. Could you provide some hints on how I should be holding these open models so that I might get more value out of them? I agree with the common trope that open models lag behind by about a year, but something magical happened just around a year ago when the state of the art models…

I tried almost all OS models on opencode, none of them is on levels as opus 4.7.

In latest experiment I used opus for implementation plan then used cursor composer 2.5 for execution.

I must say that combo is really good. Main drawback of claude code is that is super slow. So when paired with composer that is super fast it flies.

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#169
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YEPPP... and I'm kind of shocked at how many people can't do simple math. Let's put it context. Google's annual revenue seems to be north of $400B. So if OpenAI suddenly had Google's revenue, it would still be insufficient to recover their investment. and it's a ticking time bomb because $1T in servers, CPUs, GPUs and memory is going to be worth $200B in 5 years. You can say they can keep using what they've got. Sure…

This should be the top comment. Also, I think its not that many people, including our Simon here, are not good at math. Its more like, some of them seem to be incentivised to not be cough, cough, "good at math". How else will the hype sell?

I thought my post was pretty free of hype. I said that this new revenue "Maybe even enough to start covering their costs!"

Re: I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit

#170
post #22

200$ per month per seat is nothing . A single 3D CAD license pack for the guys in our R&D group costs multiple thousands of dollars per seat, per month. It's about time software seats get some love too.

But when previously your software developer tools were free, that's a huge increase
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