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On makework compliance:
"I really ought to throw this umbrella away. I know we're in a rainstorm, but I haven't gotten wet yet!"
Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
261–270 of 559 posts
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#262I find it humorous that these are simultaneously attacked as being gambling and attacked because some people know more than others and are "betting" on a sure thing.
Both can be true: insiders bet on a sure thing, outsiders naively gamble, the house gets a cut no matter what.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very close already. Death threats went to this journalist; seems someone bet on missile hits. https://factkeepers.com/polymarket-gamblers-vow-to-kill-jour... It also incentivizes leaks from insiders, sometimes endangering others. A soldier was charged for betting on a military operation. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas... And of course throwing pro sports, but that's been happening for ag…
I thought this one was the most interesting: ‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/23/hairdryer-or-l...
Oh man, I thought from the headline that it was going to be about a new prediction wager on the site about whether the manipulator had used a hair dryer or lighter.
That would have been perfect.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
They can take any position they want and do whatever they want, the point is that these oddball markets are very thin so there just isn't much money there to harvest. You can only bet $50M at your chosen risk if you can find enough people to take the other side, and these markets simply don't have many participants betting much money. Think of it like kids betting pennies what subject the teacher will open with the n…
I don't think the markets are thin, there are some bets that have made people many millions.
Correct, but there is a direct correlation between the size of the market, and the power of the people determining the outcome.
Then there is also the fact that the power of the people determining the outcome is inversely proportional to their care about betting markets.
Put this together and you get "The larger the size of the market, the less the people who can single handily swing it care about doing so".
If you are someone who can command hundreds of thousands of people to bet millions for or against you, you almost certainly lose more than you would gain by gaming it.
Mind you the market also naturally prices in this risk of the one person going rogue and taking them winnings for themselves. You will never find a market for "WarmWash will post nothing for 3 days straight on HN" because no one will take the other side of it.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#265These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
> manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet
This happens on the stock market on a scale 100x larger than Polymarket.
c.f. manipulated earnings reports, taco trades, strait of hummus nonsense
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#266Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. But some random guy will get his hair dryer to win a socially meaningless weather bet. It's not discussed often, but the liqui…
> No fortune 500 CEO is going to postpone a product launch so they can win $5,000 on polymarket. No, but a low paid frontline worker with the ability to throw a last minute wrench into the gears absolutely would.
They can already do this easily with the stock market.
Usually though people's pay/power directly correlates with how badly they can screw the company if they go (legally) rogue.
But anyone can get a job at XYZ, buy puts, and go and set the factory on fire the next day. Betting markets don't change the fact that you'll be arrested, except that you'll be arrested for a few thousand dollars rather than whatever you can squeeze out of options.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#268When I see people making money on Iran attacks, and murder of heads of state - it shows clearly something is deeply wrong with Polymarket. Its a level worse than Vegas or Indian casinos. A literal ticket to hell. I'm all for banning these evil sites.
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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are bets everyday, so no matter when the ban is announced, you can always attach a conspiracy to it.
Most of Spain did not even know polymarket existed until a couple of days ago.
Also, most of Spain can walk to a functioning casino which will be more than willing to take all sorts of odd prop bets.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah. You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home. For obvious reasons. But buying an event contract that pays if someone dies or someone's house burns down is fine?
Murder and arson are illegal. Just because there is an event contract that doesn't make them legal to do.
It's also illegal to pay someone to do murder or arson, which is easy to obfuscate as an "event contract".