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The Eternal Sloptember

geohot.github.io

241–250 of 389 posts

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#241
post #97

Part of my job is working on trying to make these models productive for the large corporation I work for. It's a lot of throwing tomatoes at a wall and to a degree I see the issue he is talking about output seemingly having a certain ceiling. At the same time in no part of his post is any code snippet or anything to latch on to of "the model performed poorly here when it should have done this" - this style of critici…

> How are we really supposed to grasp their actual capabilities when no one will actually cite specifically what mistakes they are making. The mistakes they make are pretty subtle. Coding with LLMs can be like that scene in Whiplash – , not quite my tempo, , downbeat on 18, , you’re rushing, , dragging, … Like yeah it produces working code almost always and the code usually does what you asked. And yet it makes you w…

Well again that is just a "vibes" explanation with nothing concrete.

I feel like with LLMs, it's like a situation where you are close to some feature or project and have a pretty good idea in your head already of how you'd implement it yourself "I'd do this and have an API with that and a database table foo for storing bar with index on baz" and you're keen to get started on it ...but then someone else gets assigned to work on it not you.

They do it a totally different way than you would have thought of doing it, and the code feels alien and weird because it doesn't follow your "design" and decisions you already had in your head before they started work on it. Is it "bad" or just not how you'd have done it?

I think that is ok. So long as the code works and meets all stated requirements and is secure and performant and uses good abstractions and is not full of hacks, then it's ok to let go. Sure maybe you'd have done it a different way but ultimately that doesn't matter.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#242
post #74

I think a lot of the problem with the current discourse is how black-and-white it is. Either you're a luddite or "ai pilled". In most cases, LLMs can get you 80-95% of the way, sometimes less, sometimes more. And heck, sometimes, it just gets you somewhere wrong. But it seems everyone is arguing about whether LLMs can be perfect software engineers in isolation running in a closet, and using that to say that LLMs do n…

>In most cases, LLMs can get you 80-95% of the way

On a tangent, this often gets misinterpreted as "LLMs reduce the time it takes to do the thing by 80-95%". That's not what it means.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#243
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny, but the more I know about the true Luddites, the more I see their point of view. " the original Luddites were primarily protesting against machinery used to "fraudulently and deceitfully" manufacture inferior goods, bypass labor standards, and strip skilled artisans of their livelihoods."

Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea. Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. Fundamentally, Luddites didn't like being replaced by a machine. They were skilled workers, who used to have very desirable skil…

> Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine.

This is only true in the beginning, when machines are still primitive (e.g. first automatic looms). Nowadays machines mostly yield much better quality than any human can produce (e.g. automated welding, anything CNC controlled). Many things are only possible to build with machines (e.g. semiconductors).

> A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea.

This is by choice. Ikea chooses to produce the cheapest furniture possible, using cheap, crappy materials. Other manufacturers still produce high quality furniture, which is much more expensive.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#244
post #5

> They are a highly sophisticated statistical model designed to mimic the distribution of programming Are we really still doing this?

That's a very good way to describe what they do (better than 'AI') but ironically, it really well explains the mechanism, and how they are in fact able to 'code so well' which is contrary to the authors own premise. Agents code extremely well. They're not particularly good at 'architecture' and I think that's where his specific concerns about 'not being able to see the problems' arise - the issues are are almost neve…

> Of course it's producing gargantuan amounts of slop - that's not because 'it can't code'

That is precisely because it can't code! Or rather, it's because it can't reason, or understand things, which in turn means it can't code. The output of LLMs is sloppy because they have no understanding of what they are doing.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#245
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny, but the more I know about the true Luddites, the more I see their point of view. " the original Luddites were primarily protesting against machinery used to "fraudulently and deceitfully" manufacture inferior goods, bypass labor standards, and strip skilled artisans of their livelihoods."

Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea. Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. Fundamentally, Luddites didn't like being replaced by a machine. They were skilled workers, who used to have very desirable skil…

> Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea.

I would argue that this is quite the opposite. We may have this perception due to how mass-manufactured product are pushed to insane cost-saving measure due to harsh competition. But machine are far, far more accurate than human, and have been for years. A commercial CNC has insane tolerance, a pick and place machine can accurately place parts that human can barely see, a miter saw can make straight and angle cut that would be very hard using hand tools, ...

And I would argue that your example is even wrong. Almost all Ikea furniture use MDF, which is very dimensionally stable, and once protected with a veneer, is decently resistant to moisture. A solid wood table will contract, warp, etc, depending on the grain of the wood, the humidity, ... And will require much more care and regular use of surface treatment. Of course, "real" wood has its own advantage, but it is a matter of requirement. And even that "hand-craft" table is not hand-crafted. Any woodworking shop today use machines. Circular saw of many types, power drill, planing machines, ... Which are faster and more accurate than hand tool (although hand tool still have their place).

> Fundamentally, Luddites didn't like being replaced by a machine. They were skilled workers, who used to have very desirable skills. Most people didn't need their standard of quality (but customers had no choice.)

And that's the thing. As you mentioned, very few go to a woodworker to buy a several k$ furniture. Most go to mass-produces-cheap-but-decent furniture companies like Ikea because they don't have a whole month of salary to put in furniture. Machine can absolutely help create far better quality product. But the way of the world has always been to favor cheap but good enough goods.

The big difference with LLMs and "IA" is that they are not a circular saw, they are not a CNC, etc. They are not a tool made for a specific purpose and optimize for it that can reach insane tolerances that no human could match (and especially not as fast). They are, as the post mentioned, "a highly sophisticated statistical model designed to mimic the distribution of programming". There is not really any equivalent in human history. This is a bullshit machine that is scarily good at producing valid output.

It's why I think it is so controversial and why the dust still hasn't settled and why the usefulness of LLM are still subject of such heated debate. A miter saw will cut your plank at a 45-degree angle very fast and very accurately. If you do a lot of that, the benefit is obvious. But if you had a “magical” woodworking tool that could cut at an angle, drill counter-sink, glue veneer, etc, all-in-one but the tolerances are completely random, how useful would that be ? How much time would it save you ? It would be really tough to say.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#246
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny, but the more I know about the true Luddites, the more I see their point of view. " the original Luddites were primarily protesting against machinery used to "fraudulently and deceitfully" manufacture inferior goods, bypass labor standards, and strip skilled artisans of their livelihoods."

Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea. Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. Fundamentally, Luddites didn't like being replaced by a machine. They were skilled workers, who used to have very desirable skil…

> Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea.

False. Ikea is not representative of machine-made products, just their own brand of cheap and poorly-designed machine-made products which outsource assembly to the customer for novelty value. Machines are much more precise than humans and do tedious and complex work without cutting corners or getting tired. Buying handcrafted wooden furniture is a class and wealth flex, just like buying any other customized product. The superiority, if any, is entirely in the materials and bespoke design rather than the work - machines can do almost any of the work involved much better than humans.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet, clothes would have remained very expensive if we kept doing fabric by hand. Even destitute people in the poorest countries can have clothes these days, the meaning of “who wears the pants in this house” has lost its original (一条裤子) scarcity meaning.

>the meaning of “who wears the pants in this house” That's pants as opposed to skirts. It's a gender implication, not a scarcity one.

You're right for the english version, but the Chinese version is IIRC a family that shares one pair of pants - the person who needs to go outside wears the proper clothes.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goods are usually (although not always) inferior when made by a machine. A hand-crafted solid wood table is still superior to something from Ikea. Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. Fundamentally, Luddites didn't like being replaced by a machine. They were skilled workers, who used to have very desirable skil…

>Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. And yet my working class grandparents didn't eat off the floor, they had great quality tables. Mine is made of disguised cardboard. This is a big part of the problem, there is zero trust that any potential improvement in cost or access will reach consumers. Companies don't…

And my dinner table is solid wood from IKEA.

Affordable quality is perhaps harder to find in the US than in some other countries. Because professional salaries are so high, the top 10% is responsible for ~50% of consumer spending. That makes middle spenders a less lucrative market than in countries with more equal incomes.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good News! The horse and the car can coexist

Bad news! The horse population declined by 85% after the widespread introduction of the car.

Good news! Buggy/carriage mechanics became auto mechanics and the number of mechanics jobs increased overall.

Re: The Eternal Sloptember

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Of course hand made tables are expensive. They service a sliver of the market. Ikea serves the rest of us who'd prefer not to eat off the floor. And yet my working class grandparents didn't eat off the floor, they had great quality tables. Mine is made of disguised cardboard. This is a big part of the problem, there is zero trust that any potential improvement in cost or access will reach consumers. Companies don't…

The cost improvements reached you, you just don't see them in the table quality. You see them in the fact that every single home you'll visit to buy or rent has a fully equipped kitchen including a fridge, oven, likely a microwave, dishwasher and even a washing machine (which alone has a huge economic impact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gvsz_vc7B0 ) You see it in the fact that your home is safer from fires than…

The real problem is that today, you rarely can pay more to get better. If you pay 3x more for your appliances (TV, dishwasher, oven, etc...) you don't get something 3x more reliable/better engineered.

Because that requires manufacturers ready to give up stealth corner cutting as the cornerstone of their earnings in favour of the hard and long task of developing an image of reliability.

------

Three cases I know enough about: cars, loudspeakers and computer monitors.

You can still buy some Mazda/Toyota models to really get more thoughtful engineering and QC for your money, but the Germans with a similar image of quality (Mercedes, BMW) have partially or fully shed the underlying quality.

Genelec remains the only (non-PA) loudspeaker manufacturer you can sincerely trust to take reliability, performance and transparency seriously. There was also Klein + Hummel (K+H) but since being bought by Sennheiser and integrated with Neumann, things have been going downhill... to the point where some curious people found CapXon caps (bottom of the barrel) in their KH80s.

Computer monitors? Since Panasonic (Eizo's supplier of yore) exited the panel market and left it as LG vs Samsung, it's been a complete disaster. Oh, you wanna pay 1~2k $currency for a fancy OLED monitor? Get used to appalling panel QC (banding, uniformity), VRR flicker and DSC crap.

The available choice for "pay more to get better" continues to dwindle...

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