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The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

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Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#591

Post by state_less »

mrandish wrote: post #493
state_less wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit surprising many here are referencing the memory supply cycles without mentioning this revolutionary new application for memory people call AI. It'd be like talking about weather cycles and climate without mentioning global warming. Just like the planet is not going to get colder on average than it was for the foreseeable future, we're not going to need less memory for the foreseeable future. China is tryin…

> this revolutionary new application for memory people call AI. Most analysts think LLMs will elevate the long-term base RAM demand level. I mentioned 15-25% above prior projections without AI, which I think everyone agrees is highly likely. That's actually a lot because it's an overall market number and RAM goes lots of places other than PCs, servers and high-end mobile (depending on how you segment, 25% overall cou…

I think there will continue to be latent demand from PC, server and laptop users who have put off purchases as hyperscalers skip to the front of the wafer line with large outlays of spending for chips and RAM. This would likely extend out beyond the datacenter demand which analyst are pretty confident will be in place for the next 2 to 3 years, looking at Nvidia estimates alone.

I'm concerned that the regular Joe/Jane won't be getting a GPU or a system upgrade for some time. And then you have people in Africa and elsewhere who can't afford new phones.

There probably is some distortion in that the top spenders aren't terribly against cornering the RAM market and forcing everyone to pay more for local AI due to higher RAM, GPU and CPU costs while squeezing people through their APIs to access AI services, but that's an expensive gambit that depends on local models not getting good enough and frontier models to continue to get better while requiring large swaths of memory and compute, keeping consumers demanding the latest models from the APIs. But if the supply increases and people have more access to RAM, GPUs and CPUs, we'll likely see more local model usage and people doing all sorts of creative work, even training their own models.

I'm bullish, not so much of an overzealousness as having witnessed so many of these computing explosions to not doubt it much anymore. We'll collectively find all sorts of creative uses for these wafers and tech. If I were to bet on it, I'd simply buy a basket of stocks and hold, riding out the noise - nothing too surprising there.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#593

Post by jurgenburgen »

pjc50 wrote: post #198
MagicMoonlight wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up. With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.

> the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences You're going to have to cite that, because Ukraine was already in the low-intensity Donbass conflict when the most recent invasion happened. But yes, you can't hide an invasion fleet. The Chinese navy only has three aircraft carriers. They've recently had high level purges in the…

At the time it did seem like mobilization came very late, after the invasion already began. But like the other commenters pointed out they did prepare for it and a few more days of mobilization wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#594

Post by ivewonyoung »

hackyhacky wrote: post #544
ivewonyoung wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I listed the reforms upthread that you ignored. All the reforms fit a capitalistic model, not just a free commerce model. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48231586 And of course, Mao's communism was very anti-capitalistic.

All well and good but you still haven't addressed my point which is that China's reduction of poverty is due to its central control of wages, construction, and capital. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48236489

They had "central control of wages, construction, and capital" to a much higher degree before they started becoming capitalistic in 1976 and the poverty levels were much much worse and not going down. They only started going down once they embraced capitalism and started allowing private companies.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#595

Post by jurgenburgen »

rationalist wrote: post #104
jurgenburgen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Taiwan war that the world is sleepwalking into is going to wipe out so much chip capacity that the current inflation will look like a blip.

While it's a possibility, do you believe it is likely enough in the very near future to the point where you are betting on it? Perhaps shorting TSMC? If I did so when I first thought about it, I would be broke by now.

Not shorting TSMC, I’ve lost too much money shorting and it’s just too easy to lose because of timing even if you eventually are correct.

I’ve overweighted EU weapons manufacturers because a Taiwan war will be coupled with an expansion of the war in Europe. With the US busy trying to fight China, Russia will for sure make a bigger move in Europe. European defense budgets will 10x.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#596

Post by try-working »

The Big 3 memory producers are really super charging their Chinese competitors CXMT and YMTC. They will IPO this year and they will be able to get massive funding for their build outs.

If the Big 3 had been more prudent, they could have kept profits lower and avoided this, but now they've probably dug their own grave and will see massive decline in profits starting from 2027/2028 when Chinese capacity really comes online.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#597

Post by fireflash38 »

inglor_cz wrote: post #369
fireflash38 wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They claim greed because they always choose the path that makes them more money even if it has clear, evidence-based proof of societal harm. Ya know, just like the Sacklers and pushing oxycontin.

You don't know in advance what is going to make you money. Investments are risky. In 2026, we know that SpaceX is a huge success. In 2002, it was just one of very many space startups, the vast majority of which ended up bankrupt, and before the last Falcon 1 flight, it was already on the brink of bankruptcy. They were incredibly lucky that the last rocket they had money for actually reached orbit. During the same tim…

That is a complete distraction from Meta in particular selling social media hard to kids even knowing that their work explicitly caused mental harm.

This is not a I own stock am I culpable issue, it is a company knowing their product is dangerous and ignoring the issues because it doesn't make them more money.

Same shit as the tobacco industry. People do banally evil shit for money.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#598

Post by DoctorOetker »

WillAdams wrote: post #583
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #46

It's impressive that somehow, as if by coincidence, we're seeing the biggest inflationary drivers for decades, perhaps for centuries, all happening simultaneously. The Iran war is spiking the price of oil and will likely cause shortages of pretty much everything if it isn't ended. The Ukraine war is helping with that by destroying Russian refining capacity. The memory shortage is set to do the same to consumer electr…

Presumably food shortages will first be felt by livestock, so expect meat to get much more affordable (as animals are slaughtered to avoid the need to feed them) for a while, then expensive (when there are fewer head). Animal feed represents over 50% of acreage.

we can generate full protein mixtures with hydrogenotrophs, fed green hydrogen from solar, the photosynthesis -> protein is 10x more efficient than plants.

90% of acreage could be slashed this way, either for rewilding or for development.

Soylent Green, but veritable, not old people

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#599

Post by selimthegrim »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #469
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, now ask someone from a nordic country about how best to balance capitalism with regulation and social safety nets. I think you'd get a very different answer.

Step 1: start with a vast reservoir of oil revenue and a culturally-homogeneous population

You mean the country that immediately asked for help from a country with vast oil reserves and a famously heterogeneous population (Iraq)?

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#600

Post by deadbabe »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #46

It's impressive that somehow, as if by coincidence, we're seeing the biggest inflationary drivers for decades, perhaps for centuries, all happening simultaneously. The Iran war is spiking the price of oil and will likely cause shortages of pretty much everything if it isn't ended. The Ukraine war is helping with that by destroying Russian refining capacity. The memory shortage is set to do the same to consumer electr…

Keep going…
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