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The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

libertas.software

131–140 of 218 posts

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#131
To take advantage of AI orgs needs to optimize for giving humans broader agency, not AI usage or skills.

These large companies aren’t well positioned for this. There’s too many human bottlenecks to every decision. You get in trouble for going outside your role. Thats why AI is drudgery at many of these places, often even negative productive.

Smaller companies though started assuming AI will let their employees stretch to broader roles, wear many hats, and given larger agency

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#132
These two ideas, that (1) AI is making people more productive and (2) we are laying off employees because AI replaces them. Those two ideas are mutually incompatible. When employees become more productive, you always always always want to hire more of them, because it’s a multiplier on your outputs and therefore an efficient use of resources.

That is why one of these narratives is total bullshit. Either “layoffs from AI” are layoffs for some other structural reason in the tech sector, or “AI makes employees way more productive” is total bullshit.

I don’t know which is the scarier lie tbh

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

> when I started at FB in 2013, they probably had […] about 10% of the sales people [they needed] I find that hard to believe. Looking at https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platform... , they had a good revenue growth in the early ‘10s. What did they leave on the table by not having more ten times as many sales people as they did? Revenues? Profits?

> I find that hard to believe. Looking at https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platform..., they had a good revenue growth in the early ‘10s.

So, how they hired salespeople was based on revenue per head. If there wasn't enough revenue in a particular part of the business, no new hires for you. Obviously, that's gonna be a lagging indicator.

And they were honestly leaving a lot of money on the table there, but honestly not as much as they were leaving on the table by having a really, really, really bad and buggy self-serve interface that made it hard for small advertisers to spend money.

When they fixed that, the small businesses all got good results (e.g. hairdressers etc) and those people then convinced all the agency people to put more money into the platform.

Up till 2015 or so, it was a real struggle to convince people to even try FB ads, but after that it was like shooting fish in a barrel.

> I find that hard to believe. Looking at https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platform..., they had a good revenue growth in the early ‘10s.

Also, up to 2013 or so (when feed ads became a thing), most of that money was coming from payments for f2p games, so they had lots of partner managers there, but not enough ads sales people.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#134
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the scale of a company, augmenting is replacing. If a worker plus AI can do the work of two workers without AI (but cheaper), you go for that; and it doesn't matter how good or bad AI is without the human.

The point is if a worker plus AI can do the work of two workers without AI, then why not keep both workers and have them both use AI to have the equivalent of four non-assisted workers?

If one woman can produce a baby on 9 months, why can't you get 9 women pregnant and produce a baby in one month?

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#135
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things: 1) Unlimited PTO is a scam. Ask anyone who ever got paid out six weeks salary when they changed jobs. 2) “the craft” is doing some heavy lifting here. I happen to enjoy AI-assisted dev, but it is nothing like the work that drew me to the industry. Otherwise agreed on all counts.

Unlimited PTO works great for someone like me who regularly takes half day and full day PTO every quarter for various commitments/life stuff. But I’m also a guy and I have no problem asserting myself/spending my benefits. People who are a little less comfortable with that end up just parking on it and would do a lot better if they were given a set number of PTO days. The ambiguity hurts them in the same way not havin…

Before unlimited PTO took off, standard in FAANG-like (US) industry was ~12 corp holidays + 15-25 days annual PTO, depending on seniority.

I don’t know anyone who takes the high end of that anymore, especially senior/staff folks.

Unlimited PTO takes a liability off the company’s books, and makes every time off request a negotiation.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

AI aside, if we just look at other engineering disciplines in mature sectors, the future is not bright(er). No fully paid golden cadillac benefits packages (for your dog too!), no twice daily uber eats comps, no $150k entry level, no unlimited PTO, no 6 months leave. If you go to your uncles engineering department at the boiler company, these guy's engineering roles are about as pampered as the warehouse managers. Th…

You don't need to look at other engineering jobs, just look at software engineers out side the US. We make decent money compared to the local market, but we've never had the royal treatment that US devs seem to get.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

AI aside, if we just look at other engineering disciplines in mature sectors, the future is not bright(er). No fully paid golden cadillac benefits packages (for your dog too!), no twice daily uber eats comps, no $150k entry level, no unlimited PTO, no 6 months leave. If you go to your uncles engineering department at the boiler company, these guy's engineering roles are about as pampered as the warehouse managers. Th…

[dead]

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#138
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things: 1) Unlimited PTO is a scam. Ask anyone who ever got paid out six weeks salary when they changed jobs. 2) “the craft” is doing some heavy lifting here. I happen to enjoy AI-assisted dev, but it is nothing like the work that drew me to the industry. Otherwise agreed on all counts.

Unlimited PTO works great for someone like me who regularly takes half day and full day PTO every quarter for various commitments/life stuff. But I’m also a guy and I have no problem asserting myself/spending my benefits. People who are a little less comfortable with that end up just parking on it and would do a lot better if they were given a set number of PTO days. The ambiguity hurts them in the same way not havin…

> someone like me who regularly half day and full day PTO every quarter

So you take something less than 10 days off a year?

In all developed countries bar one that is against the law for being so few days off.

You are being abused.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#140
post #59

I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. Employee count seems to correlate to stock market incentives - which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

FB is the weirdest company though. For a lot of companies like gitlab you know they have sales for customers, roadmap for their core product etc.

FB has what?

Intel has around the same number of people and they make chips, laptops, different types of chips. Hardware, software, supply chain etc.

FB does what? And what do they do with all these very well paid people?!

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