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The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

libertas.software

111–120 of 218 posts

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#111
That's absolutely correct. I use LLMs heavily in my work and open source projects. These tools are effective, they can solve hard problems and they allow me to work on a wider range of tasks than could before.

But, they're also jagged in terms of functionality. When you work with a human, you can learn what their core competencies are, and then if you give them a task that falls within that domain, you can be reasonably sure they'll finish it correctly. That's not the case with LLMs. It might do one task brilliantly, and a next similar task, it just shits the bed on.

And since it has no understanding of the task in a human sense, it can't self correct, learn or improve. All its doing is stringing tokens together based on probability. So, you need a human in the loop to review what it's doing, to correct it when it makes mistakes, and to define the actual goals. My experience is that doing all that properly ends up taking up a lot of time, so your actual productivity gain per person aren't all that significant.

Companies that try to replace humans with LLMs will soon find that they end up with a whole bunch of code that doesn't actually work, and they have no hope of fixing. The double edge of LLMs is that they're really good at generating a lot of wrong code really fast.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

AI aside, if we just look at other engineering disciplines in mature sectors, the future is not bright(er). No fully paid golden cadillac benefits packages (for your dog too!), no twice daily uber eats comps, no $150k entry level, no unlimited PTO, no 6 months leave. If you go to your uncles engineering department at the boiler company, these guy's engineering roles are about as pampered as the warehouse managers. Th…

Two things:

1) Unlimited PTO is a scam. Ask anyone who ever got paid out six weeks salary when they changed jobs.

2) “the craft” is doing some heavy lifting here. I happen to enjoy AI-assisted dev, but it is nothing like the work that drew me to the industry.

Otherwise agreed on all counts.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#114
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It isn't as if there are enough projects around to keep the other 2/3 busy, so eventually when there are enough of those people on bench they have to find something else. Eh, are they doing that though? Anecdotally, firing people “on the bench” isn't whats happening. Read the tweets. Listen to people still working at these big corps. They are gutting teams and pushing more work onto people because they believe they…

In consulting firing people “on the bench” happens regularly if the sales pipeline cannot keep everyone busy, there is only so much agencies pay from their own pocket if there are no outsourcing deals landing. In some of those well known offshoring companies, being on bench automatically means a downcut on the salary as cost measure.

> if the sales pipeline cannot keep everyone busy

That has nothing to do with AI.

It is happening due to global economic conditions.

Im not saying the bench doesn't exist, Im saying its not full of people because you have two consultants doing all 59 jobs with AI.

There are definitely places making cuts of staff who are not on the bench.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#115
post #59

I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. Employee count seems to correlate to stock market incentives - which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

>which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

Seems questionable to compare the valuation of a public company vs a private one, with the latter being marked to market rarely, if ever.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#116
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The major issue, is that once people are more productive with AI, you are able to replace people because less of them are required. You see this in enterprise consulting, wiht the increase in cloud, serverless, SaaS/iPaaS, low code/no code, content generation and translations, followed by AI agent orchestration, the teams can be reduced down to about 1/3 of what they used to be. It isn't as if there are enough projec…

If you're increasing productivity, you should be doing more and growing, yes? If you're cutting payroll costs and trying to have the same level of capacity...your business sucks and you deserve your stock tanking. Layoffs are a strong signal that a business is not investing in growth and is just trying to wring more profit from the same thing. If investors were rational, they'd walk away. Maybe replacing the expensiv…

> Layoffs are a strong signal that a business is not investing in growth and is just trying to wring more profit from the same thing. If investors were rational, they'd walk away.

Not always. A buggy whip maker in 1920 should be laying off people. No amount of investment in buggy whips will bring that market back.

A layoff is saying that the investment will not pay off. So long as the company is cutting the right things they are good. Many layoffs are not done with a proper cut of the work do be done and so are bad, but that doesn't mean they are always bad.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#117
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds like an attempt to rationalize the fact that your business isn't that effective, otherwise adding more people would result in making more money. > It isn't as if there are enough projects around to keep the other 2/3 busy I've never worked at any company where there was any limit to the work to be done. Sales people don't give a shit what your product can do, only what they can sell, and they never sleep.

You can always find things to do but how much of that work has a positive ROI, or contributes to your business? You always have some bottlenecks, let's say implementing features was your bottleneck before AI, and you had a team of 15 product engineers with a 1y roadmap. With Claude Code a team of 5 was able to get that done in let's say 3 months. You don't magically come up with 9 months of work for 15 people right a…

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Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#118
post #31

My pet theory is that AI enables programmers to be relatively more productive than other roles. So, if I want to grow my company, shouldn't I hire MORE programmers? Anyone know a good counterargument? Along another vein, I guess I wonder with my limited knowledge of economics if the demand for programmers is elastic or inelastic.

> So, if I want to grow my company, shouldn't I hire MORE programmers?

You take the same pot of money and allocate it differently:

2010s: Hire 10 programmers

2020s: Hire 9 programmers and pay for the best AI money can buy

The 9 programmers with AI will be more productive than the 10 without.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#119
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI aside, if we just look at other engineering disciplines in mature sectors, the future is not bright(er). No fully paid golden cadillac benefits packages (for your dog too!), no twice daily uber eats comps, no $150k entry level, no unlimited PTO, no 6 months leave. If you go to your uncles engineering department at the boiler company, these guy's engineering roles are about as pampered as the warehouse managers. Th…

Two things: 1) Unlimited PTO is a scam. Ask anyone who ever got paid out six weeks salary when they changed jobs. 2) “the craft” is doing some heavy lifting here. I happen to enjoy AI-assisted dev, but it is nothing like the work that drew me to the industry. Otherwise agreed on all counts.

Unlimited PTO works great for someone like me who regularly takes half day and full day PTO every quarter for various commitments/life stuff. But I’m also a guy and I have no problem asserting myself/spending my benefits. People who are a little less comfortable with that end up just parking on it and would do a lot better if they were given a set number of PTO days. The ambiguity hurts them in the same way not having set raise schedules and discussions hurts them.

Edit: folks, I can assure you I take a lot more than 10 days of PTO. I didn’t even say how many half/full days I take, you’re assuming a lot though I get my language could’ve been more clear there. I probably take between 20-30 days total annually. I am saying that because of unlimited PTO, it is very easy to just grab half days and full days as needed routinely and not worry about my overall count.

Re: The Companies Cutting Headcount for AI Will Lose to the Ones Who Didn't

#120
post #59

I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. Employee count seems to correlate to stock market incentives - which is how GitLab is like 5x larger than Valve.

> I think the unfortunate reality is that lots of companies in our industry have suspiciously inflated employee counts in the first place. Even when removing AI and the pandemic over-hiring, I wouldn't have been surprised to see corrections sooner or later. It's funny to me that everyone talks about pandemic over-hiring, as if this hadn't been a thing for a decade before that. Like, when I started at FB in 2013, they…

> when I started at FB in 2013, they probably had […] about 10% of the sales people [they needed]

I find that hard to believe. Looking at https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/META/meta-platform..., they had a good revenue growth in the early ‘10s.

What did they leave on the table by not having more ten times as many sales people as they did? Revenues? Profits?

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