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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#181

Post by ericd »

bmau5 wrote: post #106
kentm wrote: post #54

SpaceX is incredibly exciting, but I was skeptical when XAI and Twitter were rolled into it. The S-1 here makes it even more disappointing. I did want a piece of SpaceX but the valuation here is pretty eye watering compared to the fundamentals. I don't think I can put my money into this, although I suspect it will still do gangbusters based on hype and momentum. Its also a real shame that SpaceX's competitors have no…

You'll get a piece regardless if you're in index funds, as they're being strong-armed into buying at this awful price

I think this only applies currently for the Nasdaq index, and the only Nasdaq index fund that comes to mind is QQQ. I think fewer people are currently being hit than are worried about it.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#182

Post by ericd »

tensor wrote: post #137
LanceJones wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that 100s of global pension funds don't do their due diligence when investing 100s of millions or billions of their members' future retirement funds is extremely naive. With sincerity, I hope you can find a way not to be so emotional about what Musk says and be more grounded in what his companies and their employees are doing .

Investing in SpaceX is one thing. Investing in SpaceX that is now merged with several other failed companies that each incur massive yearly additional losses.... let's see how long those funds still hold SpaceX.

Isn't xAI profitable after leasing out its DCs to Anthropic?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#183

Post by cherioo »

impulser_ wrote: post #15

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

It’s also interesting that Cursor (that spacex is acquiring ) also just announced yesterday they are training in colossus.

So who’s using it? Is spacex just renting out parts of their data center? Or is cursor done done?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#184

Post by takinola »

Eldodi wrote: post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Can someone ELI5 Starlink revenue sources? At the core, it's an ISP (but served from space). What does Starlink have that differentiates from any other ISP? Is it because the TAM is global? That may be true at the margin, but I am sure most eligible subscribers would prefer a land-based system (eg no one in SF is cancelling their Xfinity to use Starlink) so how much is really left for them?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#186

Post by Rury »

tobias3 wrote: post #102
JeremyNT wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the best way to hedge against this turkey being included in my index funds?

Choose another index where it is not included?

That alone will probably do little, due to contagion effects. Simply finding an index which excludes it might not be enough if it still shares other similar underlying stocks with indexes that do include it.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#187

Post by lumost »

gekoxyz wrote: post #180
BoredPositron wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not.

can you elaborate?

Napkin math on 5 year depreciation is 5.5 billion per year for 28 billion. However the 28 billion is cash upfront, spacex is probably paying 10-20% interest on the 28 billion for another 2-6 billion per year.

So net you are looking at finance expenses of 7-11 billion per year. The electricity costs will be significant on top of that, but harder to get a solid read on.

Net of everything, spacex may be getting a 14-28 percent yield before paying for electricity. After electricity/insurance/data/taxes/other expenses - I’d guess it’s anywhere between 0% and 7% yield.

Odds are good that Anthropic abandons the deal before the depreciation schedule completes. Who is going to rent the GPUs then?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#188

Post by dmix »

urams wrote: post #167
dmix wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus Uber's only increased their revenue 11->14B in the last 5yrs. SpaceX has added +$4B since 2024 and have fanciful plans in multiple markets that only a gambler like Musk would risk proposing.

> Plus Uber's only increased their revenue 11->14B in the last 5yrs. This is just incredibly off. A brief look at Yahoo Finance shows revenue has grown from $31.9B in 2022 -> $53.7B in trailing 12mos.

you're right, looks I mixed up some numbers while googling. their revenue went from 11->53b in 6yrs which was very off from my original comment

Which honestly surprises me, Uber was called a VC pump and dump scheme for years on HN before their IPO. Maybe that's the better lesson here (dont take financial advice from HN comments)

Re: SpaceX S-1

#189

Post by MPSimmons »

dbalatero wrote: post #145
fragmede wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shhh, that's SpaceX's real play. Put a giant sun shade between the Earth and the sun, and make everyone on Earth pay for sunlight. No pay? No crops. No food. Solves global warming.

Damn, another Simpsons already did that with Mr. Burns' sun blocker.

"Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun."

Re: SpaceX S-1

#190

Post by bluecalm »

lumost wrote: post #187
gekoxyz wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

can you elaborate?

Napkin math on 5 year depreciation is 5.5 billion per year for 28 billion. However the 28 billion is cash upfront, spacex is probably paying 10-20% interest on the 28 billion for another 2-6 billion per year. So net you are looking at finance expenses of 7-11 billion per year. The electricity costs will be significant on top of that, but harder to get a solid read on. Net of everything, spacex may be getting a 14-28…

That assumes they are renting out the whole capacity. Have you seen anything suggesting that's the case?
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