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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#71

Post by electriclove »

Spartan-S63 wrote: post #66
Eldodi wrote: post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

If they cleaved off xAI and let it die, they'd be in much better shape!

Did you see that they are getting $15B/year from Anthropic because of what xAI built?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#72

Post by electriclove »

Jabbles wrote: post #51

If any company can put profitable data centers in space, it will be SpaceX. But I doubt that any company can. The difficulties of the physics and engineering of cooling seem like they will always outweigh the advantages of keeping your data center on Earth. I am annoyed by the insistence that the value of this company comes from something that no one has been able to show is possible yet without multiplying it by the…

Wouldn't your pension be buying shares at $2T?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#73

Post by JeremyNT »

Eldodi wrote: post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

What is the best way to hedge against this turkey being included in my index funds?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#74

Post by electriclove »

kentm wrote: post #54

SpaceX is incredibly exciting, but I was skeptical when XAI and Twitter were rolled into it. The S-1 here makes it even more disappointing. I did want a piece of SpaceX but the valuation here is pretty eye watering compared to the fundamentals. I don't think I can put my money into this, although I suspect it will still do gangbusters based on hype and momentum. Its also a real shame that SpaceX's competitors have no…

Hopefully their competitors will keep advancing but that just reinforces that how hard space is and that SpaceX is doing things no one else currently can.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#75

Post by darkwizard42 »

fragmede wrote: post #57
Jabbles wrote: post #51

If any company can put profitable data centers in space, it will be SpaceX. But I doubt that any company can. The difficulties of the physics and engineering of cooling seem like they will always outweigh the advantages of keeping your data center on Earth. I am annoyed by the insistence that the value of this company comes from something that no one has been able to show is possible yet without multiplying it by the…

How do you price regulatory restrictions? The laws governing space are more lax than those governing how much chromium Tesla can dump into their waste water. By building in space, they get to completely sidestep any regulatory issues on Earth, like not being allowed to build what they want, wherever they want, how they want. It's annoying getting permits to do whatever on my house, but for businesses, it's a real pro…

The biggest regulation of building in space is... where do the debris go. You are tightly monitored for how much trash reenters into the atmosphere, so there is still SOME level of regulation.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#76

Post by nickff »

baron816 wrote: post #39
impulser_ wrote: post #15

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

Everyone laughed at Allbirds getting into the business of selling compute.

The reason people laugh at Allbirds is that they don't have the money or expertise to build a competitive offering.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#77

Post by electriclove »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #11

So this confirms that SpaceX was making a lot of cash and plowing it back into R&D, and that the X/Twitter/xAI merger is concrete shoes on the good parts.

Did you read that Anthropic is paying them $15B/year for use of xAI's data centers? That changes things quite a bit

Re: SpaceX S-1

#79

Post by dmix »

darkwizard42 wrote: post #69
dmix wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber had about $11B revenue when it went public SpaceX is at $18.7B

Just to keep things in perspective, Uber IPO-ed for 82.4B. SpaceX is IPOing for over 10x more.

Plus Uber's only increased their revenue 11->14B in the last 5yrs. SpaceX has added +$4B since 2024 and have fanciful plans in multiple markets that only a gambler like Musk would risk proposing.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#80

Post by jprd »

impulser_ wrote: post #50
ykl wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the time of the announcement IIRC the deal was only for Colossus 1. Is Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 new? At the time the consensus narrative was that SpaceX no longer needed Colossus 1 for Grok and that was why it could be leased to Anthropic while Colossus 2 would handle Grok training and inference. Does Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 change this?

They are. This is from their "Chief Compute Officer". https://x.com/nottombrown/status/2057194829986300375

Right. This compute still being powered by an illegal amount of gas turbines in a residential neighborhood?

Claude is eating so much compute, the threat of that power being tuned down by lawsuit (rightfully) is worth the risk to Anthropic in the short-term. Instead of declaring "bubble", I'm just going to say that's so crazy.

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