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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#41

Post by pbmango »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #33
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$45 billion for a 3 year rental .

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Anthropic is getting capacity from Colossus 1 not Colossus 2 it sounded like. The initial colossus capex was under $5B, making that an even more astounding payoff.

Edit: S1 states both are being leased so the 20-25B initial investment probably more relevant

Re: SpaceX S-1

#42

Post by gjsman-1000 »

pbmango wrote: post #41
TheAlchemist wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Anthropic is getting capacity from Colossus 1 not Colossus 2 it sounded like. The initial colossus capex was under $5B, making that an even more astounding payoff. Edit: S1 states both are being leased so the 20-25B initial investment probably more relevant

... and a sign Anthropic couldn't find enough compute anywhere else, so they had to bite the bullet. Interesting.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#43

Post by neosat »

impulser_ wrote: post #15

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

has anyone done the math on: 1. cost to build out and run the data centers 2. cost of compute (hardware and energy) 3. depreciation of legacy GPU and thus value at the end of 3 years.

And then compare the $45B revenue from Anthropic to see if it's mostly break even or if one of Anthropic/SpaceX came out ahead on the contract.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#44

Post by tristanj »

moralestapia wrote: post #12
Eldodi wrote: post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Typo: I'm sure you meant >1T. >ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026 Oof, are they already on diminishing returns phase? While I don't think the financials are bad, I agree, this is definitely not a 1T company (but the market can stay irrational ...).

Starlink is giving away the satellite dishes for free to grow customers. These dishes are expensive to manufacture and cost the company hundreds of dollars each. The estimated manufacturing cost of a Starlink standard dish is around $400.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#45

Post by arthurofbabylon »

It’s surprising just how low the revenue is for SpaceX. There are some 700+ companies with larger revenue figures, and yet just a small handful exceed SpaceX’s proposed valuation.

In 2026 one gets the impression that SpaceX is a huge company, among the largest in the world. It’s wild to see that its business volume is smaller than Northrop, smaller than Apple’s peripherals alone, smaller than Avnet (heard of ‘em?).

Re: SpaceX S-1

#46

Post by ykl »

impulser_ wrote: post #15

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

At the time of the announcement IIRC the deal was only for Colossus 1. Is Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 new?

At the time the consensus narrative was that SpaceX no longer needed Colossus 1 for Grok and that was why it could be leased to Anthropic while Colossus 2 would handle Grok training and inference. Does Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 change this?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#47

Post by TheAlchemist »

pbmango wrote: post #41
TheAlchemist wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Anthropic is getting capacity from Colossus 1 not Colossus 2 it sounded like. The initial colossus capex was under $5B, making that an even more astounding payoff. Edit: S1 states both are being leased so the 20-25B initial investment probably more relevant

The S-1 states that it gets capacity from both Colossus 1 and Colossus 2.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#48

Post by nemothekid »

Am I reading this right?

SpaceX TAM - "Enterprise AI Applications" is 6T. The other 22T enterprise AI. This is a rocket company pretending it's a frontier AI lab.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#49

Post by btian »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #33
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$45 billion for a 3 year rental .

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Closer to 18b than 40. Running costs are 1-2b a year.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#50

Post by impulser_ »

ykl wrote: post #46
impulser_ wrote: post #15

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

At the time of the announcement IIRC the deal was only for Colossus 1. Is Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 new? At the time the consensus narrative was that SpaceX no longer needed Colossus 1 for Grok and that was why it could be leased to Anthropic while Colossus 2 would handle Grok training and inference. Does Anthropic also leasing Colossus 2 change this?

They are. This is from their "Chief Compute Officer".

https://x.com/nottombrown/status/2057194829986300375

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