Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I’ve joined Anthropic

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

651–660 of 673 posts

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#651

Post by ricardobeat »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #485
ricardobeat wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not back in 2016.

You don't think that tracking objects from frame to frame is obvious ?! I can guarantee you this was built-in from day #1 I'm guessing you're not a developer if you don't then automatically think of end cases like "what if car # 1 isn't in the preceding frame" ... (then you look at some relevant test data and see it was there, unlabelled ...)

Obvious in hindsight and obvious at the time are very different things.

You seem to have missed the main point anyway - using a larger model to generate labels for a smaller one is what the parent was highlighting, not the temporal labeling alone. The gold standard at the time was human labeling (eg Waymo). Deep learning was just having its moment, all of this stuff was cutting edge, and there is a lot of work in between a published paper and actually applying that to production vehicles.

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#652

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

ricardobeat wrote: post #651
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think that tracking objects from frame to frame is obvious ?! I can guarantee you this was built-in from day #1 I'm guessing you're not a developer if you don't then automatically think of end cases like "what if car # 1 isn't in the preceding frame" ... (then you look at some relevant test data and see it was there, unlabelled ...)

Obvious in hindsight and obvious at the time are very different things. You seem to have missed the main point anyway - using a larger model to generate labels for a smaller one is what the parent was highlighting, not the temporal labeling alone. The gold standard at the time was human labeling (eg Waymo). Deep learning was just having its moment, all of this stuff was cutting edge, and there is a lot of work in bet…

Yes, the automated labelling (which replaced a large team they had doing manual labelling) that Tesla implemented consisted of a bunch of different things.

Generating a training set, training on it, and then inferencing on the trained model are three different things.

1) Generating the auto-labelled training set was of course done on Tesla's supercomputer, based on data from 1000s of cars.

2) Using the generated training set to train the in-car model would also be done offline.

3) The trained (and tested) model is then deployed to the car and used by the vision system to label image segments ("stop sign", "cyclist" etc).

How could this be divided up any other way?!

Karpathy seems like a great guy, but honestly there seems to be little to nothing in his background that makes him stand out as an architecture guy or being very creative. Maybe his thesis on image captioning is his most creative work, but at the end of the day this consisted of feeding the output of a CNN into an LSTM, conceptually very similar to the way language translation was being done at the time by feeding the output of an encoder LSTM for language A into a decoder LSTM for language B, except Karpathy was using an image encoder (off the shelf CNN) since he wanted to describe (caption) images. It was certainly at least somewhat innovative at the time, but what he was really famous/popular for at Stanford was for teaching the CS 231n class on using CNNs, and this is what he continues to be best known for - explaining how things work.

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#653

Post by inciampati »

delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #610
lacker wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't dig into what the actual repository was doing, but personally, I took some inspiration from the idea after reading about it and realizing that I might have been underestimating the ability of LLMs. I put a bit more work into a performance harness I was using locally and just set some agents to brainstorming and they did seem to find some great stuff. So I don't really have a stance one way or another on this…

Could you elaborate in specifics how you had been underestimating models? Ypu mean just using more tighter harnessing to make them work in structured agentic eay or something else?

Just remember that the will do clever but useless things to improve. Like changing the random seed as per autoresearch's hero image. lol! imo, out of the box thinking is needed.

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#654

Post by csa »

OkWing99 wrote: post #629
csa wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Figma (in progress) Hmmm… maybe. I think not. It really depends on your other claims below, with which I mostly disagree. 2. Most entry level jobs for current graduates in white collar fields. (See hiring rates for these positions) Maybe a small amount. Entry level white collar jobs have a low hiring rate for other reasons, imho. 3. Thousands of layoffs (mostly attributed to AI use, while not 100%, the Anthropic…

The question wasn't about the quality of the work done or a criticism of AI in general. But those were areas where people were employed and got paid to do a job. The output may not have been acceptable from Silicon Valley standards - but they were still employed and paid taxes. It's about whole industries/sectors getting destroyed by a single company. 'Overhiring' is a result of changed business situations. Companies…

> Anthropic will be coming after every job that can be done by a computer - including yours and mine

It’s not something I worry about.

What I, and many of my peers, excel at is taking vague inputs from end users and putting them into actionable specs. Often times this requires considerable education of the end user.

AI might be able to suggest best practices, but getting someone from malformed ideas into an actionable path forward is a very human thing.

Sure, tech-savvy lucid thinking clients with time on their hands might not need my services any more at some point, but… yeah… that’s not my client base.

I get paid to solve business problems. Everything I’ve done in the past could have theoretically been done by my customers, but it wasn’t. AI removes a small amount of the friction for a small portion of the market, but that’s just not a market-wide phenomenon.

“Super smart, super savvy, highly-motivated, and prefer to spend time instead of money” does not describe most business owners.

That’s just my 2 cents…

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#655

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #620
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The hundreds of billions of dollars pouring into data center build-out basically hinges on this thesis, and frankly I trust the judgements of the billionaires financing these deals better than LLM-naysayers on hackernews (not to mention the non-public info they have access to). I actually think both perspectives can be true. If you look at (IMO) the most rational takes of "LLM-naysayers on hackernews", it's not tha…

> The problem is there are still tons of jobs that actually don't require much high-level, human-only thinking where it's easy to see a clear path where AI obliterates all those jobs pretty quickly. I heard this million times, but never examples of those jobs, at least ones that haven’t been decimated by automation already years ago. There was very little need for elevator attendants and data entrist already in 2023.…

> I heard this million times, but never examples of those jobs

Then you haven't been listening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already listed 18 roles that are heavily susceptible to AI and have already begun to see impacts from AI. This was on the HN front page a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48162354

Plus, this doesn't even include obvious candidates that are ripe for disruption in the near future, like driving (millions of Americans drive for a living), radiologists, etc.

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#656

Post by burnerRhodov3 »

mjg2 wrote: post #647
burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://x.com/karpathy/status/2006436622909452501 How old are you if you don't mind me asking? >I could never trust a Tesla to drive safely around people. They seem like death traps. Have you ever been in a Tesla? It's literally been rated the safest car in America since it's inception.

That's just a man standing by his car. I'm asking for video proof, I'm sorry that wasn't clear off the bat. I also abstain from X due to Elon's track record, so I'm not going to keep searching there for it. Could you please tell me how to self serve on this? I've driven a Tesla on and off for about 4 years, and I'm thankful to never do so again. > death trap https://apnews.com/article/tesla-crash-doors-musk-regulator…

> also abstain from X due to Elon's track record

I can just tell you hate eveything Elon, so this is a pointless conversation. That was a post from Karpathy, who we are all talking about in the thread, so i thought it was the most pertinent. I'm sure you can google it, it's proven, so no point arguing that it didn't happen.

Obviously, since you can't even use X out of your hate for Elon, There's no way you have "Driven a Tesla on and off for four years". Thats just a lie. NHTSA has given every vehicle a 5/5, and model 3 is "The top saftey pick" of all cars for their crash test results.

The safety comes from the inherent electric drives. They are much less likely to flip and much less likely to catch fire.

from your Tesla Deaths, 772 deaths over hundreds of billions of miles is absolutely incredible. Do you have any data to share on Fords mile to death ratio? Do you offer any comparisons? Or are you still just hating elon, for being elon?

Edit: Also, have you looked through the Tesla Deaths that you posted? A drunk driver is involved in alot of those, at no fault to the Tesla. One of the largest "Tesla Deaths" was someone driving on the wrong side of the freeway and they crashed into the tesla killing a whole family in the Tesla. How on earth are you using this slop as evidence that Tesla's are unsafe.... That's not ignorance, that's actually just evil...

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#657

Post by delis-thumbs-7e »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #655
delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is there are still tons of jobs that actually don't require much high-level, human-only thinking where it's easy to see a clear path where AI obliterates all those jobs pretty quickly. I heard this million times, but never examples of those jobs, at least ones that haven’t been decimated by automation already years ago. There was very little need for elevator attendants and data entrist already in 2023.…

> I heard this million times, but never examples of those jobs Then you haven't been listening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already listed 18 roles that are heavily susceptible to AI and have already begun to see impacts from AI. This was on the HN front page a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48162354 Plus, this doesn't even include obvious candidates that are ripe for disruption in the near fut…

I have actually. The examples in that paywalled article seem to be various clerks and translators, ie. jobs that have been automated away for 20-30 years now. Your examples of of drivers and radiologists have been touted for years now and hiring of radiologists is actually up [1], similar to truck drivers [2].

Everybody* says there is massive job displacement either now or coming, but if you actually look at the data, there is little to no displacement. Theoretically there may he in the future, but seems that the technology just is not ready.

*Who are somehow invested in AI boom [1] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/radiologic-technologists.... [2] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/h...

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#658

Post by mjg2 »

burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #656
mjg2 wrote: post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just a man standing by his car. I'm asking for video proof, I'm sorry that wasn't clear off the bat. I also abstain from X due to Elon's track record, so I'm not going to keep searching there for it. Could you please tell me how to self serve on this? I've driven a Tesla on and off for about 4 years, and I'm thankful to never do so again. > death trap https://apnews.com/article/tesla-crash-doors-musk-regulator…

> also abstain from X due to Elon's track record I can just tell you hate eveything Elon, so this is a pointless conversation. That was a post from Karpathy, who we are all talking about in the thread, so i thought it was the most pertinent. I'm sure you can google it, it's proven, so no point arguing that it didn't happen. Obviously, since you can't even use X out of your hate for Elon, There's no way you have "Driv…

lol Dude I should be the one verifying your age with this response. I don’t hate Elon, I am wary of his track record and I don’t use X. I drove a Tesla back in 2012, and it’s been a marked downgrade ever since.

I’m not going to keep engaging with someone who makes wild assumptions about my stance and accuses me of lying, ignorance, and evil. I was really hoping for video proof; I know Elon is the type of guy to hold that high with all that SpaceX footage.

Good day sir :)

Re: I’ve joined Anthropic

#660

Post by burnerRhodov3 »

mjg2 wrote: post #658
burnerRhodov3 wrote: post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> also abstain from X due to Elon's track record I can just tell you hate eveything Elon, so this is a pointless conversation. That was a post from Karpathy, who we are all talking about in the thread, so i thought it was the most pertinent. I'm sure you can google it, it's proven, so no point arguing that it didn't happen. Obviously, since you can't even use X out of your hate for Elon, There's no way you have "Driv…

lol Dude I should be the one verifying your age with this response. I don’t hate Elon, I am wary of his track record and I don’t use X. I drove a Tesla back in 2012, and it’s been a marked downgrade ever since. I’m not going to keep engaging with someone who makes wild assumptions about my stance and accuses me of lying, ignorance, and evil. I was really hoping for video proof; I know Elon is the type of guy to hold…

in 2012? lolol, they didn't even have a model 3. that was before they ipo'd. On and off over years is not "I drove a Tesla in 2012". So i was right to call you out for being a liar. "Been a marked downgrade ever since"... 2003 up until the end of 2012, Tesla sold approximately 5,100 to 5,450 vehicles globally. You got a first generation model S before they even had a manufacturing line.

You really think from 5k cars to the 9m they've produced today, has only gone downhill? have you tried FSD since 2012? lol

Edit: ooooohhhhhh, i actually remember you now looking at your past comments. You are the one who hated on the book "there is no antimemetics division" for being too "Cliche" which is like mine and everyone i knows fav book of all time. You are just a type of person that hates everything that is universally loved... I get it now.

Post reply on HN