Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 426 posts

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#51

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

CodingJeebus wrote: post #39
aurareturn wrote: post #4

Throughout the “AI bubble” talk in 2024 and 2025, I consistently argued that we were nowhere near the peak of the AI bubble. So far, that view has held up, as valuations are significantly higher today than they were in 2024 and 2025. If you look at the way the dotcom bubble unfolded, dotcom didn't take off until after Netscape IPOed in 1995. The market had 5 more years of growth until the collapse. And even after col…

I think we're a lot closer to the peak than when Netscape IPO'd relative to the dotcom bust for a few reasons: * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article: > According to the Financial Times, major lenders are already scrambling to offload pieces of massive data center loans through private transactions, risk transfers and synthetic s…

> * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article:

This isn't necessarily a sign that they don't believe in the data centre loans, it's more than banks are basically required to avoid concentrated risk, because of the regulations we (mostly correctly) imposed upon them post GFC.

Now, personally I'm not convinced there's enough demand for AI services that these datacentres make sense, but we'll see I guess.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#52

Post by jddj »

bdangubic wrote: post #47
jddj wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a machine that reliably takes $1 and makes $2 you raise debt not equity

care to elaborate? if my machine is doubling my money, why do I have to raise debt?

Presumably there is some time component, i.e you need to use the machine quickly or risk losing it.

Also, it's better to double $2 instead of $1, and then pay back that $1.1 and end up with $2.9 instead of $2.

But it was a more facetious comment than I would have preferred to make, I actually went to delete it but you got in too quickly.

There are many reasons it's wrong, too, eg. at some level of risk debt becomes more expensive or impossible

But the intent of the comment was to say that if you owned as sure a thing as the GP proposed you'd do what you could to avoid selling parts of it.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#53

Post by aurareturn »

Aboutplants wrote: post #18

The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?

I think one of them is not like the other.

I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#54

Post by aurareturn »

Aboutplants wrote: post #29
cdrnsf wrote: post #6

Can't wait to see those revenue numbers.

I’m less interested in revenue and more interested in their operational costs

I'm personally interested in their growth rate more than anything else. I'm not a believer that AI can't be profitable and has no moat narrative that is popular here.

Both Altman and Dario have consistently said inference margins are high.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#55

Post by RandallBrown »

aurareturn wrote: post #53
Aboutplants wrote: post #18

The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?

I think one of them is not like the other. I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.

Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#56

Post by lofaszvanitt »

skiing_crawling wrote: post #13

At this point IPOs are mainly for unloading bags onto retail. Every institution who wanted a piece of these labs got in years ago and captured all the value.

Yeah, and now the you shall not buy this bullshit begins. And then the price soars. :D

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#57

Post by CodingJeebus »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #51
CodingJeebus wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're a lot closer to the peak than when Netscape IPO'd relative to the dotcom bust for a few reasons: * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article: > According to the Financial Times, major lenders are already scrambling to offload pieces of massive data center loans through private transactions, risk transfers and synthetic s…

> * big banks are trying to get out of their data center loan commitments, even selling that debt at a discount. From the article: This isn't necessarily a sign that they don't believe in the data centre loans, it's more than banks are basically required to avoid concentrated risk, because of the regulations we (mostly correctly) imposed upon them post GFC. Now, personally I'm not convinced there's enough demand for…

This just isn't true. Banks never offload commercial debt to non-bank entities at a discount unless they're under financial duress or they believe the loss is worth more than keeping the debt on the books.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#58

Post by ericmay »

CodingJeebus wrote: post #49
ericmay wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, sad to say this is simply untrue for a few reasons. 1. "Retail" does not have enough purchasing power to have all of these "bags" unloaded on to. 2. Institutions buy shares in public firms post-IPO all the time even when they're "unloading bags onto retail". Take Uber (random example) ~83% is owned by institutions. 3. General factual history of the stock market shows that you are incorrect. Successful companies…

It's absolutely true. Just look at how private equity is now getting access to public markets and retirement accounts[0]. You think PE is letting the little guys in out of the goodness of their hearts? No, they've extracted as much as they can and the market is starting to question the absurd valuation of private assets. A wise man once said: "if you're given an opportunity to cut an amazing deal and you can't tell w…

> It's absolutely true.

What is absolutely true? I'm not sure specifically what you are referring to.

> Just look at how private equity is now getting access to public markets and retirement accounts[0].

Nobody forces you to reallocate your Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or wherever you have your retirement assets into a new Apollo fund.

Secondarily, we should treat people like adults and allow them to make their own investment decisions.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#59

Post by aurareturn »

RandallBrown wrote: post #55
aurareturn wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one of them is not like the other. I would invest in OpenAI or Anthropic or both but I doubt I'd invest in SpaceX.

Isn't SpaceX the only one of those that actually makes money?

Personally, I don't worry about profitability in the short term. If Anthropic is adding $15b ARR every single month, and their gross margins are 50%+ (per Dario), profits are inevitable.

The thing I'm most worried about with SpaceX is bundling X.com, xAI with it. I don't want to invest in X.com nor xAI.

Lastly, I don't my money tied to the Elon rollercoaster.

Post reply on HN