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Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

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Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#111

Post by joe_mamba »

Tade0 wrote: post #101
aleda145 wrote: post #48

Oh so lobbying the EU comission to both slash CO2 targets and adding tolls to chinese EV cars did not actually make German auto manufacturers more competitive. Who would have thunk? Yes I'm bitter how much influence the German car companies have over the union.

You're not alone. Several times already I've gotten into internet arguments over this. "But they provide jobs!" is the usual rebuttal. Well, they ain't doin' that any more, are they?

>"But they provide jobs!" is the usual rebuttal. Well, they ain't doin' that any more, are they?

People who support stuff like this, are unable to think 15 minutes past their own actions. They can't comprehend the negative externalities and second order effects of the policies they support. They easily get manipulated to just blindly support feel-good policies based on own-group tribalism, platitudes and vibes, especially the German voters.

Same like the crowd who thinks rent freeze is the solution to rising rents. They don't understand supply and demand, so they can't comprehend how this will lead to a massive housing disaster down the road, they just want frozen rents for themselves now, and 'after me, the flood'. Hell, people don't even understand how inflation works, they think prices increases just come from greed of business owners, they can't fathom how currency is being devalued by massive government money printing that inflates assets and devalues their labor. This is beyond their level of understanding.

When you work public facing service jobs, you realize just how stupid the average person is, so no wonder politicians and elites can rob us blind via laws and policies implemented with our own accord, while then having us blame each other and fight over sports-ball.

Sorry if I sound overly nihilistic, but this is my conclusion after so many years of human interactions on this planet. We get the leadership and outcome we deserve, nothing more, nothing less.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#112

Post by piva00 »

joe_mamba wrote: post #104
piva00 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does German welfare really pay generous benefits if people avoid working altogether? I really don't know much about it, I'd have assumed it follows a similar model to the Swedish one: you can be on benefits while searching for a job, there's even a government agency tasked with finding positions you might qualify, you are required to apply to X jobs a month, and if you get offered a job you need to take it or you wil…

>Does German welfare really pay generous benefits if people avoid working altogether? As always, it depends on your definition and situation. If you're a highly skilled, ambitious worker, with a desire for a high standard of living, then no. If you're unskilled and unscrupulous and willing to game the system every step of the way(like some people I met), then being on welfare definitely pays better than doing unskill…

> Yeah, NO, it definitely does major distortions. If welfare turns from a temporary safety net only used by a few and paid by many, to a system now many rely on long term and paid only by a few, then it ends up distorting everything: the tax system, the labor market, the rental market, government spending and debt, etc. all of which negatively affect a nation's economic competitiveness.

My point was entirely focused on the Swedish model which doesn't create major distortions due to how it works, you cannot be on welfare for an undetermined amount of time unless you are disabled.

For your points, I believe we need real hard data, I cannot determine if what you say about Germany is actually true without looking at it. How many people in Germany are living only on welfare for long periods (at least 12 months, what proportion stays for 24+ months)? What is the proportion between people temporarily on welfare vs long-term ones (excluding disabilities that remove someone from the labour pool)? What percentage of Germany's budget go to service welfare costs for the issue you brought up (people living on welfare instead of working)?

I'm asking for hard data because it smells very much like the "welfare queens" trope used in the USA by Reagan which was absolute bullshit.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#113

Post by AdrianB1 »

scihuber wrote: post #86
slaw wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't notice older people are Germans and younger migrants?

The Germans themselves chose not to have children.

I think they were pushed not to have children, if that matters. Pushed via economical measures that made it very hard and pushed via education/indoctrination that kids are bad in multiple ways.

My grandparents had many brothers and sisters each and life was harder back then, but it was easier to raise a large family than today. What changed? Taxes, with direct and indirect effects.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#115

Post by croes »

dgellow wrote: post #106
croes wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France is just an example of strike possibilities. It’s ridiculous to blame unions in Germany where things like political strikes are not allowed … because a former Nazi judge said so.

The person meant EU, not worker unions I think? Otherwise I don’t see what they mean by ever extending union

Aah, I guess the first comment put me on the wrong track

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#116

Post by citadel_melon »

joe_mamba wrote: post #111
Tade0 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not alone. Several times already I've gotten into internet arguments over this. "But they provide jobs!" is the usual rebuttal. Well, they ain't doin' that any more, are they?

>"But they provide jobs!" is the usual rebuttal. Well, they ain't doin' that any more, are they? People who support stuff like this, are unable to think 15 minutes past their own actions. They can't comprehend the negative externalities and second order effects of the policies they support. They easily get manipulated to just blindly support feel-good policies based on own-group tribalism, platitudes and vibes, espec…

Part of the problem is that there are fake “pragmatists” who claim that nothing ever comes from greed or market consolidation, making laymen who can’t mechanistically and empirically think through the markets skeptical of all “pragmatist” claims.

For example, you are right about rent freezes and protection of non-infant industry; however, there were studies showing that ~40% of inflation at the end of Biden’s term was due to “greedflation.” This should not be surprising to anyone who understands that massive consolidation in industry leads to less price competition. Moreover, there were CEOs on shareholder calls bragging how they could get away with price gouging, using inflation as an excuse to justify an order of magnitude more price hikes than inflation justified. We do not need to take their word though, as if inflation was the only cause of inflation, then firm profits should have stayed around the same book ratios, but during the time I discussed firm profits ratios increased dramatically.

So let me make a symmetry argument: why are you so angry at ignorant individuals who throw the baby out with the bath water and dismiss your valid “pragmatist” takes, when you yourself are ignorantly throwing the baby out with the bath water dismissing many valid “greed and consolidation” takes?

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#117

Post by joe_mamba »

citadel_melon wrote: post #116
joe_mamba wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"But they provide jobs!" is the usual rebuttal. Well, they ain't doin' that any more, are they? People who support stuff like this, are unable to think 15 minutes past their own actions. They can't comprehend the negative externalities and second order effects of the policies they support. They easily get manipulated to just blindly support feel-good policies based on own-group tribalism, platitudes and vibes, espec…

Part of the problem is that there are fake “pragmatists” who claim that nothing ever comes from greed or market consolidation, making laymen who can’t mechanistically and empirically think through the markets skeptical of all “pragmatist” claims. For example, you are right about rent freezes and protection of non-infant industry; however, there were studies showing that ~40% of inflation at the end of Biden’s term wa…

> there were studies showing that ~40% of inflation at the end of Biden’s term was due to “greedflation.”

Studies approved by the government show the government is not to blame for the economic situation it created, but the "greedy corporations" are to blame. OK, sure.

>This should not be surprising to anyone who understands that massive consolidation in industry leads to less price competition.

Consolidation which was only possible due to ZIRP era excessive government money printing and lack of anti-monopoly law enforcement, therefore it's the same government being the core issue as I was talking before.

> Moreover, there were CEOs on shareholder calls bragging how they could get away with price gouging, using inflation as an excuse to justify an order of magnitude more price hikes than inflation justified.

So? Of course companies would raise prices if they could. Same how employees would raise their wages, if they could consolidate their bargaining power via unions. Everyone is greedy and self serving when they can get away with it.

The government is the one paid by us who controls and enforces anti monopoly laws. Why didn't they?

>when you yourself are ignorantly throwing the baby out with the bath water dismissing many valid “greed and consolidation” takes?

Because greed is a universal human trait that applies to everyone from employees, to landlords, small business owners, doctors, car dealers, handymen and builders, etc not just corporations. They all want more money than their peers, to get ahead and provide a better future for their offspring, regardless of societal consequences to those below the pecking order.

All the issues you mentioned above, are just secondary order effect from the government's red tape and monetary policies and lack of anti monopoly enforcement. Blaming only the "greedy comparisons" as the root of all evil, is just reductionist scapegoat propaganda that's easily digestible by the simpleton midwits, supported by the government to deflect the societal consequences they're responsible of creating.

No corporation is stronger than the governments. Corporations only operate within the framework of rules created and enforced by the government. Governments control the laws, courts, police, jails and military. They can have the CEOs of the F500 up against the wall and shot for treason or locked up in jail if they wanted to. If F500 rob you and get away with it, then blame your government for enabling them to do it, because ultimately corporations are doing it legally with the approval of your government you pay taxes to.

The reason simpleton midwits always default to blaming the "greedy corporations" for everything is simple: When the government prints zero interest money and devalues your wage and purchasing power, banks and corporations are the smartest and first in line to use that free money for consolidation and stock buybacks, immediately pushing the price of assets up. But ultimately it's the government's fiscal policies enabling this. Corporations are just smarter and faster to taking advantage of the fiscal environment the government cretes. Savvy average people also take advantage of this too, by using that cheap money to go in debt to buy stocks and property to increase their net worth and then have the inflation reduce the value of their debt.

It's the working class who has no assets that gets left behind, but again, that's caused by the government devaluing their labor via money printing, not the corporations. Corporations are better and navigating the environment the government creates because they hire smart savvy well educated specialists to exploit this environment legally, whereas average people are too stupid to know how the system works, they just blame corporations and the rich.

Don't believe me? Just Google it, ChatGPT it, Gemini it, Grok it etc, they'll tell you the same thing I did.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#118

Post by nephihaha »

dgellow wrote: post #80
nephihaha wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend of mine went to Berlin to learn German. She's Spanish of Moroccan Berber origin... She said she encountered barely any native speakers, and many people tried to speak English to her instead. She ended up quitting as a result. I was in part of suburban Frankfurt am Main and had a similar experience. So depending on where you are, there is plenty of diversity. Like most larger European cities, Frankfurt and Be…

Berlin and Frankfurt are the most international places in Germany. It’s like going to Zurich and Geneva and saying that people speak English. If you step outside of those 2 places you will face german more often. Though I really doubt your anecdotes, I lived in Berlin for years as a non-German speaker, you have a lot of native speakers all around, you often do not notice when you’re not integrated but once you start…

"International" is one way to put it, "anomie" is another. You could be anywhere and they're not better for it. My home town is going the same way. Lots of atomised individuals and less connection and bland architecture.

Last time I was in Berlin, I had to pretend to be Finnish to avoid speaking English and practice my German. That guy was a native German speaker. But I came across plenty of people who did not speak good German but were local residents. So I don't disbelieve her. I spent time in Dresden years ago, and it was easy for me to find Germans to speak with (nowadays, I think that may be different as youngsters are all drilled in American English.) Sächsisch is a somewhat strange accent, but at least it is a native dialect. I already know someone else's broken German, I'm not trying to learn their broken German.

I think the time to be in Berlin was the eighties and nineties. Even 1980s era East Berlin appears to have had some appeal (according to East Germans I've interacted with, despite issues with the Stasi.) Outside of the touristy parts, the modern suburbs are fast evolving into just another global city with non-descript glass and steel cylinders filled with junk food outlets and Air BnB. (Not that East German era architecture is that distinctive either.)

Another trick I've learnt sometimes is to drop into a broad Scottish accent so they cannot understand what I am saying in English. But my German is extremely rusty nowadays.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#119

Post by nephihaha »

oytis wrote: post #58
nephihaha wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend of mine went to Berlin to learn German. She's Spanish of Moroccan Berber origin... She said she encountered barely any native speakers, and many people tried to speak English to her instead. She ended up quitting as a result. I was in part of suburban Frankfurt am Main and had a similar experience. So depending on where you are, there is plenty of diversity. Like most larger European cities, Frankfurt and Be…

> she encountered barely any native speakers, and many people tried to speak English to her instead Germans often switch to English when they hear an accent or hesitation

I know they do and if you're trying to learn German, it's not great. But foreign residents in Germany often default to English when dealing with each other.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#120

Post by nephihaha »

dgellow wrote: post #81
oytis wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> she encountered barely any native speakers, and many people tried to speak English to her instead Germans often switch to English when they hear an accent or hesitation

I can confirm, that does make it pretty hard to learn if you’re in a large city where people generally speak fluent English

As I say above, I've used various tricks. Pretending to be Finnish. Putting on a very strong Scottish accent when they speak English to me. All that kind of thing.
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