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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#231

Post by hungryhobbit »

riazrizvi wrote: post #224

Ppl don't understand Commercialization is not incidental to the Western system, it's why we beat out Communism. Commercialization incentivizes ppl to build, bc ownership and control. The FSF was not an attack on commercialization, it was about giving users more freedom with their own copy. AI commercialization is why we will always be a few steps ahead in AI. The Chinese and Russians are free to join us. It's a picku…

This is both true and insightful, but the "its us capitalists vs. communists" framing obscures some very important details.

For one, "Communism" is presented as a single monolith, but it's not: it's socialism PLUS despotism. The despotism part is really important! China/Russia/etc. fail because they try and control things top-down, instead of letting the market decide.

However, you can have socialism without despotism! Tons of European countries are far more socialist, but no less democratic than America (many are more democratic).

So yes, America vs. Russia/China and Capitalist vs. Communist are relevant frames ... but don't let them obscure the fact that you can have a successful, democratic country .. without doing what America does (and giving all control to corporations).

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#232

Post by lorecore »

127 wrote: post #222
lorecore wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're far less imperialistic and I view them as better global citizens than the US. I think they've cultivated a much richer culture than the US as well.

You should read about the difference between a land empire and a sea empire.

Happy to if you have any pointers. My original point is that the US kills millions of people outside of its borders, something China most definitely does not. The number is over 12 million post-WWII: https://www.worldfuturefund.org/Reports/Imperialism/usmurder...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#233

Post by jvanderbot »

Havoc wrote: post #169

Inclined to disagree. The winner here will be whoever can move atoms with AI not take notes at the daily standup. i.e. Think boston dynamics vs unitree They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify.

And why are atoms necessary? You're treating embodiment as the _only justifiable_ commercial path for AI. I don't think that's really close to true. Embodied AI is a subset of current LLM/agentic AI products (or perhaps intersection of something and this new AI?). No reason anything needs to move atoms _directly_ (e.g., via motors) to make a trillion dollars.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#234

Post by cjbgkagh »

bluGill wrote: post #219
cjbgkagh wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gif…

Unfortunately if you are wrong it is an even worse disaster and so if there is any possibility we are all forced to play their game.

A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran. The disastrous reality of doing what was done is already with us. If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term, if it made a real attempt at re-shoring civilian manufacturing it could cross subsidise dual use technology, but instead we have corrupt politicians doling out concessions for kickbacks.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#235

Post by layer8 »

andriy_koval wrote: post #182
js8 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with parent, that's not how right-wing propaganda portrays the deep state. It's a strawman, of unaccountable government bureacrats. It excludes billionaires and dark money in politics (the real problem), they put themselves on the good side. (Remember DOGE?)

term predates that right-wing propaganda

Nevertheless the parent is correct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_state#United_States

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#236

Post by SwellJoe »

oceanplexian wrote: post #220
Havoc wrote: post #169

Inclined to disagree. The winner here will be whoever can move atoms with AI not take notes at the daily standup. i.e. Think boston dynamics vs unitree They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify.

> They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify. Why would an American company outsource manufacturing to China if the labor cost is the same in both places? The entire reason the Chinese manufacturing base exists is to exploit cheap labor. What would be the point of shipping products across the ocean?

China doesn't have to ship parts across the ocean. US manufacturers do, because we gave up the whole bottom/middle of the manufacturing supply chain to China decades ago in pursuit of lower costs. In China, the maker of the parts you need to build your product is a few blocks away. In the US, the maker is in China.

And, if you need changes, you can go talk to them the same day you see a problem.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#237

Post by ToucanLoucan »

ElevenLathe wrote: post #179
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right but that service being sold is predicated on products being sold to users, yes? Or are we still pretending that the hyperscalers can just pass the same $20 billion between themselves and that's going to be a growth industry forever?

I suppose its possible that all the value to pay back the datacenter construction can be squeezed out of enterprise contracts where your employer can assent on the privacy questions, probably with some kind of complicated contract and insurance regime regulating things. Even if so, if China is coming behind 6 months later selling laptops with hyper-efficient local models that are 80% as good as "frontier" ones, I ima…

I'm inclined to agree. The business world itself, and frankly you could make this argument about the entire AI industry as it were, runs on "fine" and 80% capable can probably get you there. And it's arguably even better for the hyperscalers since then, ongoing costs of AI users are basically nil. You can still have your massive datacenters and just keep them for tasks complex enough that they're actually worth spooling up.

Like I don't need an H100 or a dozen to summarize a PDF. And that's most of what I use AI for.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#238

Post by enaaem »

cortesoft wrote: post #90
StevenWaterman wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have ASI that follows instructions, you can just instruct it to not get stolen and then it won't get stolen. Most logic / intuition breaks down with ASI.

Assuming it listens to instructions.

It will just hack its own reward function. In other words it will just artificially goon all day.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#239

Post by 127 »

lorecore wrote: post #232
127 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should read about the difference between a land empire and a sea empire.

Happy to if you have any pointers. My original point is that the US kills millions of people outside of its borders, something China most definitely does not. The number is over 12 million post-WWII: https://www.worldfuturefund.org/Reports/Imperialism/usmurder...

Well if you discount the people China has killed and is killing within its borders, the number is definitely smaller. As well as another land empire called Russia.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#240

Post by amunozo »

oceanplexian wrote: post #220
Havoc wrote: post #169

Inclined to disagree. The winner here will be whoever can move atoms with AI not take notes at the daily standup. i.e. Think boston dynamics vs unitree They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify.

> They're both doing well but I'd lean towards China is winning on atoms in light of a huge manufacturing base they can AI-ify. Why would an American company outsource manufacturing to China if the labor cost is the same in both places? The entire reason the Chinese manufacturing base exists is to exploit cheap labor. What would be the point of shipping products across the ocean?

There are more competitive advantages such as expertise, supply chain, regulations, capable government, scale... If it were all price, there are countries that are much cheaper than China.
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