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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#81

Post by UltraSane »

rich_sasha wrote: post #65
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

If anyone actually DOES invent ASI and doesn't share it then EVERYONE ELSE will never stop trying to steal it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#82

Post by lotsofpulp »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #63
nodja wrote: post #48

No, the US is _leading_ the AI race, but the race isn't over. What's the point of leading the race for 90% of it, if they're gonna slip on their own sweat and fall down by the end? In non metaphorical terms, what's the point of spending billions of dollars rushing to get the best AI tech at all costs, when the competition can distil your progress and catch up in 6-12 months while only spending 1% of what you spent. E…

Mark Cuban in a recent interview answered your question: companies are afraid there is going to be just one in the end—sort of the way there is one ad-company now on the internet. They want to be that one. Whether they're correct that there can be only one is of course a matter of debate. But that is at least the mind-set they are operating under according to Cuban.

Why would Mark Cuban know anything about the motivations of today’s big tech companies? He has not been involved in tech businesses since he sold a radio on the internet website 26 years ago.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#83

Post by StevenWaterman »

UltraSane wrote: post #81
rich_sasha wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

If anyone actually DOES invent ASI and doesn't share it then EVERYONE ELSE will never stop trying to steal it.

If you have ASI that follows instructions, you can just instruct it to not get stolen and then it won't get stolen. Most logic / intuition breaks down with ASI.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#84

Post by dietr1ch »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #75
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

China is trying to undermine the US economy through open source models. If they can down round or bankrupt the model companies, they take down the US. Currently the US is extremely vulnerable and dependent on China. AI is an important exception, so it’s key for China to destroy that

China is not even trying to destroy the US bet. It's just making sure everyone else has a reason to buy their hardware.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#85

Post by boothby »

doph wrote: post #64
cyberge99 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forgive me if this is a naive assumption, but wouldn’t large language models be fundamentally different for a language that is largely symbols? Again, my understanding of Mandarin is limited if it exists at all.

All tokens are symbols. All of the frontier models speak Mandarin.

This is why misspellings and homophones are tells of human righting. LLMs strongly prefer word-level tokens, and word substitutions follow semantic similarity and not the more human auditory similarity.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#86

Post by throwaway27448 »

SubiculumCode wrote: post #38
thepasch wrote: post #7

Article title: “The US is winning the AI Race” Article content: “The US are capitalizing on AI the best” A lot of assumptions there that no one can actually verify as true right now. If commercialization into rent-seeking SaaS landscapes is the endgame, then yeah, the US is winning the AI race. If individualization, local LLMs, and consumer hardware are the endgame, China is winning the AI race. If it’s something ent…

That seems like a lot of rationalization to me. China is pursuing these because they cannot compete on the frontier. Yes, there is a possibility that all that compute is not needed, but it is a rather remote possibility, and there is no doubt that, given the choice, China would be pursuing frontier model building with closed, propietary-only offerings.

> China is pursuing these because they cannot compete on the frontier.

? Claude, ChatGPT, etc are heinously expensive for tiny benefits lmao. Local + efficient is clearly the future

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#87

Post by treis »

usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

AI has definitely improved the industrial capacity of the US

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#89

Post by adjejmxbdjdn »

andriy_koval wrote: post #80
giancarlostoro wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US deep state Strange reading that on HN and realizing I'm not on Facebook

Its hard not to see that "deep state": group of elite politicians and super-rich, seize more and more power in American society.

Whatever you think about elite politicians and the super-rich, they’re not the “deep state”.

The whole idea of the deep state is that it’s part of the state, ie government, so not private citizens, and they’re “deep” ie hidden below the layers of government. Thats the exact opposite of politicians and the ultra rich.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#90

Post by cortesoft »

StevenWaterman wrote: post #83
UltraSane wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone actually DOES invent ASI and doesn't share it then EVERYONE ELSE will never stop trying to steal it.

If you have ASI that follows instructions, you can just instruct it to not get stolen and then it won't get stolen. Most logic / intuition breaks down with ASI.

Assuming it listens to instructions.
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