Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down • Hacker News Board

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#61

Post by mapkkk » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:22 PM UTC

lisper wrote: post #14

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #4

“Scientists” have been warning the world about this since Stommel issued his paper in 1961: https://tellusjournal.org/articles/10.3402/tellusa.v13i2.949... It’s going to shut down The ice caps and antartic ice are going to melt entirely The Gulf Stream is going to collapse Global emissions have skyrocketed with no brakes since then 1.5C target was a joke. 2.0 target is a joke. There is no world where humans can coord…

The problem is that by the time it becomes incontestable that the scientists were right, it will be much, much too late to do anything about it.

I think the reality is much more grim. I believe we are now firmly in the territory where it is incontestable. (My opinion was cemented after reading Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown by Andreas Malm, Wim Carton)

We will be spending much of our upcoming years trying to get people and capital to accept that fact, before we can even start thinking about what little we can even do. By which point, we may actually just be having to scramble to mitigate the immediate sequelae of the changed climate, rather than focus our efforts to fix the underlying cause.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#62

Post by jmward01 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:22 PM UTC

causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

So many of those 'could maybe happen' are, in fact, happening right now. The researcher is also quoted as saying 'more likely than not' which is pretty big when it comes to something like the AMOC shutting down. This really is catastrophic and really should be causing governments to take immediate, massive, steps to avert it including steps to sanction countries that are causing it.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#63

Post by ck2 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

two absolute facts:

1. even if there was something humans could do about it, we won't, ever

2. insurance rates are the only "control". they will skyrocket and thereby the only change to select behavior

human society allows "privatize the profits, socialize the costs"

so that scales from the smallest to the largest models

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#64

Post by giwook » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

zurfer wrote: post #52

kocsonya wrote: post #2

Hot take on HN, but techno-optimism sounds so stupid when it comes to climate change... You can't engineer macro climate/ecology, since capital has no interest in human and it's surrounding environment balanced cohabitation.

Techno optimist here who expects the following to make a big contribution to reducing human made future climate change: better batteries+solar/wind, nuclear fusion, self driving cars (we'll need to manufacture less cars for the same amount of miles humanity drives), AI helping with better resource allocation in general (hopefully). The answer can't be, let's just consume 10x less. We have to engineer our way out of i…

These are all helpful contributions, but ultimately we need buy-in from decision makers (i.e. rulers/heads of nations).

And at least in the US we do not have it and are actively going in the opposite direction, mostly in the name of money.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#65

Post by bix6 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

kocsonya wrote: post #2

Hot take on HN, but techno-optimism sounds so stupid when it comes to climate change... You can't engineer macro climate/ecology, since capital has no interest in human and it's surrounding environment balanced cohabitation.

Techno optimism is bullshit created by power hungry VCs to ostracize anyone who argues against their myopic world view and further fill their own coffers at the expense of others. Anyone want to argue against that? I’ve yet to see a compelling counter.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#66

Post by wongarsu » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

jaapz wrote: post #26

namenotrequired wrote: post #8

Isn’t calling AMOC “the primary source of warmth for northern Europe” wildly overstated?

Not really, look at what's on the same latitude in Amerika as northern europe. Then compare their climates.

The comparison only really works for the West coast though. The East coast is dominated by continental climate carried over from the interior by the prevailing winds. Meanwhile Europe is surrounded by water on three sides, plus the Baltic and North Sea in the middle. Just having this much water nearby (plus prevailing winds coming from an ocean) moderates temperature swings a lot

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#67

Post by pier25 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:23 PM UTC

zurfer wrote: post #52

kocsonya wrote: post #2

Hot take on HN, but techno-optimism sounds so stupid when it comes to climate change... You can't engineer macro climate/ecology, since capital has no interest in human and it's surrounding environment balanced cohabitation.

Techno optimist here who expects the following to make a big contribution to reducing human made future climate change: better batteries+solar/wind, nuclear fusion, self driving cars (we'll need to manufacture less cars for the same amount of miles humanity drives), AI helping with better resource allocation in general (hopefully). The answer can't be, let's just consume 10x less. We have to engineer our way out of i…

Ironically what is pushing many countries to a faster adoption of renewables is not climate change but the recent Iran conflict.

Yes tech can help but implementation depends on human nature.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#68

Post by Eji1700 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:24 PM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #45

causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

The risk was 5% and is now above 50% according to experts in the field. Given the significant consequences this is worth paying attention to.

Which the average person doesn’t know because this is the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened.

They’ve blown their attention budget for the layman and aren’t getting it back unless someone serious guides their attention.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#69

Post by card_zero » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:24 PM UTC

jaapz wrote: post #26

namenotrequired wrote: post #8

Isn’t calling AMOC “the primary source of warmth for northern Europe” wildly overstated?

Not really, look at what's on the same latitude in Amerika as northern europe. Then compare their climates.

Yeah, I was doing a variation on this recently (wondering about the same question). Reversing the latitude of the island of Jersey ("extreme weather is rare due to the island's mild climate") takes you to the Kerguelen Islands ("snow throughout the year as well as rain"). But the contrast there is to do with the Azores High and the Roaring Forties. Local climates are complicated.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#70

Post by bix6 » Sun, May 10, 2026, 4:25 PM UTC

zurfer wrote: post #52

kocsonya wrote: post #2

Hot take on HN, but techno-optimism sounds so stupid when it comes to climate change... You can't engineer macro climate/ecology, since capital has no interest in human and it's surrounding environment balanced cohabitation.

Techno optimist here who expects the following to make a big contribution to reducing human made future climate change: better batteries+solar/wind, nuclear fusion, self driving cars (we'll need to manufacture less cars for the same amount of miles humanity drives), AI helping with better resource allocation in general (hopefully). The answer can't be, let's just consume 10x less. We have to engineer our way out of i…

I’d be embarrassed to call myself a techno optimist and associate with someone who thinks empathy is bad.

I love technology but optimism about it is incompatible with the current capitalist system. Tech is exploited to make capital not to further our optimism.

Edit: if you’re gonna downvote at least offer a counter. lol pathetic.