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A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

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Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are at their best when you have an expectation for their output. I generally know the shape of the correct response and that allows me to evaluate it's output on it's "vibes", rather than line by line. If there's no expectation then I have to take everything at face value and now I'm at the mercy of the machine.

Exactly, if I generate a large chunk software, I'm going to have expectations about what it will do, how it will do it, etc. You don't just accept the statement that "it's done" for fact but you start looking for evidence. A scientific approach here is to look to falsify the statement. You start asking questions, running tests, experiments, etc. to prove the notion that it is done wrong. And at some point you run out…

I can speak towards building large-scale systems from scratch with these tools. I've been working since late last year on a project that was barely a tech demo, and the progression of development on that project has seen me go from leveraging co-pilot autocomplete at the start, to full-on vibecoding 100% of the new additions.

I have reasonable eng chops I'd like to think - I have been a senior IC for a while on a reasonably diverse set of challenging systems problems and built out some pretty large-scale pieces of software the old "artisinal" way.

This particular project is a productization of some ideas I had for leveraging a virtual machine to execute high-divergence parallel logic on GPUs, in an effort to move complex things like "unit behaviour in games" (the classical symbolic kind, not NN-based unit behaviour) into the GPU. The project is going well but still quite a ways from release. But it's at about 300k lines of code now across 9 or so rust repositories, and a smattering of typescript on the frontend.

I have had stumbles, but overall I feel I have put together some good strategies and principles for pushing large projects along with these tools in an effective way.

The biggest takeaway for me is that the "feel" is different. Software construction by hand felt like building legos where you put the pieces together yourself. A lot of my focus would be on building and solidifying core components so I could rely on them when I stepped up to build higher-level components. Projects would get mired quickly if you didn't solidify your base.

With agentic development, one of the early challenges I ran into was this issue with something I'll call "oversight inception". It's when at some early point in the process a somewhat low-importance decision is made - an implementation decision, a decision to say.. align a test with the implementation rather than an implementation with a test.

Then, as you build more on top of this, that small decision somehow ends up getting reified into a core architectural policy that then cascades up.

You realize that when you're building a big project, the focus on some particular component is backstopped by a general understanding of local development directionality with respect to the larger level project. And the agent has no idea of directionality.

So small chinks in the design end up getting magnified and blown up as the dev process proceeds, and later on review you find major architectural pieces have just been overlooked, all flowing from some small incidental implementation choice a long time before.

This is one among a number of issues, but it's a big one. Once I saw it happening I tried an approach to mitigate it by developing a set of golden "goal" documents that describe directionality at the project level: what you are working towards and what design components need to exist.

This doesn't eliminate the "oversight inception" issue, but it does catch them earlier.

When I started applying the goal documentation aggressively to re-align the project implementation direction, I found velocity dropped a lot.

And as I progress, I'm balancing this out a bit - to allow the system to diverge a bit, but force reconvergence towards the goals at some specific cadence. I haven't found the right candence yet but I'm getting there.

This new style of development feels more like claymoulding pottery than lego assembly. You sort of "get it into shape". It's a very interesting new set of process assumptions.

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which indications are that?

The cost factors on the new models compared to the old models.

Qwen3.6 9B is as good as GPT-4o and runs on my M2 MacBook Air. Models are getting stronger and less costly at the same time, but these are somewhat separate branches of research. Frontier labs are spending more because they are still getting marginal returns and there is more capacity to spend than there was a year ago.

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#273

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Nausea aside, what evidence does anyone have that “super intelligence” of the sort your argument alludes to is even possible? Because that’s what we’re really talking about; greater than human intelligence on this sort of academic task. For example; When llms start contributing meaningfully to their own development, that would be a convincing indicator imo.

> When llms start contributing meaningfully to their own development, that would be a convincing indicator imo. This has been the case for awhile now already… https://kersai.com/the-48-hours-that-changed-ai-forever-clau...

And yet the world hasn’t changed all that much except people getting laid off in response to over-hiring prior to the diffusion of llm’s.

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost factors on the new models compared to the old models.

You are mixing cost and progress. It’s not because it’s more and more expensive that progress is slowing down by itself.

They are intrinsically linked beyond a certain point. If we're making progress but costs are spiraling exponentially then it stands to reason that we will soon reach a point where we can no longer afford the increasing costs and thus progress will slow.

(barring some breakthrough that reduces costs, which of course may happen, but for which recent model improvements are not strong evidence of)

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are advancements that do not follow s curves - consider for instance total data transmitted over all networks, or financial derivatives volumes. I think a better question for AI is “is it more like a network effect, liquidity effect, or a biological/physical effect”?

Those are measuring the utility of a technological advancement by looking at usage, not the pace of advancement of said technology.

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Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree and put it this way: LLMs sound so convincing presenting you the work it does rose colored and promising to give you more if you keep going. There is a 50/50 chance that it turns out to be right or letting you jump of the cliff. Only the trip stays the same beautiful 5 star plus travel. Also, spotting an error and telling LLM makes it in most cases worse, because the LLM wants to please you and goes on to apo…

Reusing the same prompt several times is something I've started doing too. The contrast is often illuminating. In one case, it made a thoroughly convincing argument that an approach was justified. The second time it made exactly the opposite argument, which was equally compelling. I now see LLMs as persuasion machines.

One thing I've been doing lately -- and I'm in a business function, not a technical one, although I have an engineering background -- is pitting LLMs against each other. For example, if I'm structuring a proposal or a contract with the assistance of Claude, I'll begin my 360 feedback review first by asking Claude how it would react if it were the counter-party receiving the proposal. After some iterative changes, mostly manual, I will then run the same output document past Gemini and ask it to adopt personas from both sides and provide reactive feedback. The result of this is almost always a stronger proposal that I can also accompany with proactive objection handling and a solid FAQ, as well as clear points of negotiation that will likely be acceptable to both parties.

For this sort of thing, using multiple LLMs is extremely helpful.

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are advancements that do not follow s curves - consider for instance total data transmitted over all networks, or financial derivatives volumes. I think a better question for AI is “is it more like a network effect, liquidity effect, or a biological/physical effect”?

> There are advancements that do not follow s curves - consider for instance total data transmitted over all networks, or financial derivatives volumes Or Roman trade volume before the Fall of Rome. Not to mention what you describe is not technological improvement but increase in data or money flows, not the same.

Sic transit gloria - obviously.

But I don’t that think it’s quite so obvious that model quality / growth / usefulness is definitively and obviously not more like data or money flows than it is like some other process.

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#278
post #107

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> by solving hard problems you get an insight into the problem-solving process itself, at least in your area of expertise, in a way that you simply don’t if all you do is read other people’s solutions. One consequence of this is that people who have themselves solved difficult problems are likely to be significantly better at using solving problems with the help of AI, just as very good coders are better at vibe codi…

Are you a cutting edge research scientist or something? Everyone I know works in the same domain every day. The problems are the same. People aren't solving brand new problems to humanity every day. We make budgets and look at ticket counts. Roll out patches. Replace hardware. Upgrade software packages. Make a new dashboard to track a project. I guess if every day is a completely novel thing for you, ok. I feel like…

I think that’s fine, but 1) that mentality leaves you extremely vulnerable to being disrupted by LLMs and 2) IMO, if you are solving the same problems every day it means you are not making progress on solving the root causes of those problems. What you are describing is toil, not knowledge work

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#279
post #238

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In the sense that the incremental improvements in capabilities that we've been seeing in recent models seem to taking exponentially growing amounts of compute to achieve.

But they don't? Mythos is a 10T model. Opus is a 5T model. That's not an exponentially growing amount of compute but it is achieving exponential improvements (eg from Mozilla: https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zer... )

Compute doesn't necessarily linerarly follow parameters. And with how many active parameters Mythos vs Opus gets its effectivenes from? Is it 1x or 2x? We don't know. We don't even know the parameters (it's more of rumor than confirmed 10T iirc).

But even more so, who said the improvements are "exponential"? Mozilla's single metric, that doesn't even prove anything of the sort?

Re: A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

#280
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they can. Some people like to parrot "next token prediction", "LLMs can only interpolate", and other nonsense, but it is obviously not true for many reasons, in particular since we introduced RL. Humans do not have the monopoly on generating novel ideas, modern AI models using post training, RL etc can come to them in the same way we do, exploration. See also verifier's law [0]: "The ease of training AI to solve…

Reinforcement learning for "reasoning" perturbs the model to generate completions in a particular chain of thought / alternative selection structure. It's three next token predictors in a trench coat.

> Some people like to parrot "next token prediction", "LLMs can only interpolate", and other nonsense

Thank you for illustrating my point.

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