A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro

You seem to have a good estimate in your head; I definitely do not.

From personal experience, ChatGPT 5.5 (the Plus tier) is excellent for programming tasks and also for various teaching related tasks but I have not observed the research benefits that Tim Gowers has when I asked it questions in my area of expertise. So the costs are definitely higher than a few dozen $ a month per PhD/professor.

You might be right that universities should immediately spring into action and demand funding for research level AI resources and hardware. One thing you might be mistaken in is that public universities are unfortunately very inflexible institutions; one reason for this is that they have a large internal leadership structure AND they are funded by the state, so even if the entire university agrees on something, the funding is at the whim of the ministry of education and thus the current political leadership.

A scientific approach here is to look to falsify the statement. You start asking questions, running tests, experiments, etc. to prove the notion that it is done wrong. And at some point you run out of such tests and it's probably done for some useful notion of done-ness.

I've built some larger components and things with AI. It's never a one shot kind of deal. But the good news is that you can use more AI to do a lot of the evaluation work. And if you align your agents right, the process kind of runs itself, almost. Mostly I just nudge it along. "Did you think about X? What about Y? Let's test Z"

> Conversely, for problems where one’s initial reaction is to be impressed that an LLM has come up with a clever argument, it often turns out on closer inspection that there are precedents for those arguments, so it is still just about possible to comfort oneself that LLMs are merely putting together existing knowledge rather than having truly original ideas. How much of a comfort that is I will not discuss here, other than to note that quite a lot of perfectly good human mathematics consists in putting together existing knowledge and proof techniques.

This is exactly what leads me to believe that the real impact of LLMs in human history is yet to come. My work as a researcher was mostly spent on two classes of workloads: reading papers that were recently published to gather ideas and keep up with the state of the art, and work on a selection of ideas gathered from said papers to build my research upon. It turns out that LLMs excel at the most critical component of both workloads: parsing existing content and use it when prompting the model to generate additional content based on specific goals and constraints. I mean, papers are already a way to store and distribute context.

It still sounds to me like remarkable automation rather than something that's expanding the frontier of human knowledge, for now at least.