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245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

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Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#141

Post by state_less »

aftbit wrote: post #130
state_less wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An industry doesn't need to increase supply when demand increases, they can absorb the demand as profits. More so in an industry that is hard to enter into. Consumers hate this and call it all sorts of things like market failure, gouging, etc... In this case, the suppliers are slow walking increases in production and enjoying a run up in profits. They raise concerns about oversupply, as if this deep learning thing we…

>It's a dubious notion though, the demand is here to stay and new supply needs to come online to meet demand. This is a big bet. Look at what happened in 2001 with the dot-com boom. We're still trading on their dark fiber over-build today. Meanwhile any overcapacity built in fabs will quickly be made obsolete by newer and better fab technology (or at least, that's been the pattern for the past 30 years). I think you'…

The idea that we're still trading dark fiber from 2001 is an old narrative right? I guess it is still floating around. But, we're in a second big fiber build out for not only residential, but also to connect all these new data centers. Could there be some demand oscillation for silicon? Sure, but overall deep learning is not some passing fad even if someone gets too far out over their skis and over buys. So far Big Tech has increased spend 3 years in a row and next year they'll spend more than this year. Demand has evidently not let up for AI services, we still need more silicon.

I doubt consumers will regret these compute purchases in 3 years, my 3 year old GPU is still holding value, actually increased in value, and I use it more now than ever.

I did predict or expect that if oil went to $150 we'd be in recession territory, currently hovering below that level and folks are feeling the squeeze and aren't happy. Things could get worse or better, tough to tell, but I think silicon demand is more or less secular and will do relatively well in a variety of macro conditions.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#142

Post by throwway120385 »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #138
hikarudo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

This was avoidable. Over $100B of new production capacity in the US alone has been in the works for years. The usual "environmental and community concerns" lawsuits and activism that plagues building in the US has delayed almost every single one of these projects by multiple years. NIMBYs and degrowth activists own this particular "market failure". The companies have been trying to invest in capacity ahead of demand…

I think it's really easy to blame one or another specific group for the "market failure" but the reality is that if there were 100B worth of capital looking for 1T worth of gross over 10 years there would be a lot of places that would welcome that kind of spending. I think it's probable that in specific places there's been push back, and those places are probably where the work was historically concentrated. But if that's the case, you should really be asking "why is there push back now when there wasn't before?" And I don't think the answer is because the entire community has adopted a "degrowth" agenda. Rather, I think it's going to be more about chemical dumping in the water supply or use of scarce resources that the community would rather not spend for the profit of a few people who don't live there.

I think a lot of people will accept industry when industry tries to be a good steward of the community's environment.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#143

Post by MrDrMcCoy »

roygbiv2 wrote: post #90
cyberax wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the cost of 24 of them, you can probably buy solid silver heatsinks watercooled with tears of sysadmins.

The tears of sysadmins are fairly cheap though.

It may be the only resource that truly scales with demand.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#144

Post by cptskippy »

hikarudo wrote: post #97
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

I think I'm agreeing with you but its also not something easily dismissed. The DRAM Cartel has been found to be distorting the market on numerous occasions by various regulatory bodies. There is a boom-bust cycle that occurs with DRAM and Flash memory. The Cartel claims they always lose despite the fact that demand seems to always steadily rise.

The pandemic caused once such boom-bust that resulted in a rather large downturn in demand in 2022-2023 referred to as the pandemic hangover. During that time demand dropped following overspend during the pandemic and members of the cartel drastically cut production at times to keep prices above cost. Even after the demand recovery began in 2023, the cartel members were slow to increase production and made little to no investment in production capacity in 2024-2025. Creating a shortage.

The AI hype cycle has exacerbated the shortage by creating speculative purchases and then panic buying. Remember the shoe company that pivoted to AI?

So Cartel market manipulation is partially to blame for the over 100% increase in prices and the shortages.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#145

Post by einpoklum »

hikarudo wrote: post #97
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

Supply, to a great extent, is a policy decision. Demand, to a great extent, a policy decision. This is not the silly metaphor of individual consumers and producers acting independently of each other.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#146

Post by jandrewrogers »

state_less wrote: post #141
aftbit wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's a dubious notion though, the demand is here to stay and new supply needs to come online to meet demand. This is a big bet. Look at what happened in 2001 with the dot-com boom. We're still trading on their dark fiber over-build today. Meanwhile any overcapacity built in fabs will quickly be made obsolete by newer and better fab technology (or at least, that's been the pattern for the past 30 years). I think you'…

The idea that we're still trading dark fiber from 2001 is an old narrative right? I guess it is still floating around. But, we're in a second big fiber build out for not only residential, but also to connect all these new data centers. Could there be some demand oscillation for silicon? Sure, but overall deep learning is not some passing fad even if someone gets too far out over their skis and over buys. So far Big T…

The dark fiber from the dotcom era is approaching the end of its life expectancy. Contracts for leasing dark strands reflected that. Most of it likely still has useful life left that the owners will want to monetize but it might change how it is used.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#147

Post by paulnpace »

bigbuppo wrote: post #120
paulnpace wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The demand side is the world's "investors" buying up a product without producing profit. This results in locking out companies operating without such "investors" from accessing the product and using it to produce profit. This is a failure.

And it's exacerbated by the companies that have to invest their own Real Money to produce factories to make the chips. Same goes with the power utilities. Everyone knows it's a bubble and they don't want to be the one left holding the hundred billion dollar bag like back when Enron went belly up.

But they create a new problem for themselves of converting consumers into non-brand loyalty pure price hunters. I don't think I'm speaking for myself when I say I will use the other guy if it saves me a penny for the rest of my life.

The counter-example I hold up is Harley-Davidson. They could hardly pay a bill in the late '70 through the '80s. They'd even get free samples from suppliers and put them into production. They survived with very strong brand loyalty from customers and after-market companies.

Samsung sells directly to customers of all sizes, so they have a very good idea as to where products end up. Cutting the legs off of innumerable small businesses is despicable behavior.

I don't care if Samsung is literally starving to death, where I was previously at least a marginally loyal customer not even looking at other brands because prices were fine.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#148

Post by jandrewrogers »

throwway120385 wrote: post #142
jandrewrogers wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was avoidable. Over $100B of new production capacity in the US alone has been in the works for years. The usual "environmental and community concerns" lawsuits and activism that plagues building in the US has delayed almost every single one of these projects by multiple years. NIMBYs and degrowth activists own this particular "market failure". The companies have been trying to invest in capacity ahead of demand…

I think it's really easy to blame one or another specific group for the "market failure" but the reality is that if there were 100B worth of capital looking for 1T worth of gross over 10 years there would be a lot of places that would welcome that kind of spending. I think it's probable that in specific places there's been push back, and those places are probably where the work was historically concentrated. But if t…

It is happening to production facilities across the US. Both new production facilities and expansion of existing facilities. The locale doesn't seem to make a difference.

As with the sudden inexplicable "concern" about data center construction, I don't think this activism is organic.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#149

Post by Koshkin »

wao0uuno wrote: post #113
mxfh wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is stopping anyone from buying a USB-C powered and connected very portable 2 or 4 slot external NVMe enclosures. The old SATA SSD form factor is dead and wont come back. OWC ThunderBlades exist, but 32TB will set you back 9 grand. You should be able to assemble something with USB-C for under 5k. That's not a mass consumer market thing, but perfectly doable, if your use case warrants it. We are stuck with 2021…

>Nobody is stopping anyone from buying a USB-C powered and connected very portable 2 or 4 slot external NVMe enclosures. That's more expensive than buying a single large capacity drive. It's also a terrible idea. I would never trust a low cost chinese controller with terabytes of my data. >The old SATA SSD form factor is dead and wont come back. That's true and very unfortunate.

> buying a single large capacity drive

Now that's a terrible idea. You shouldn't trust any single device with terabytes of your data, regardless of whether it is low-cost or Chinese.

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