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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#141

Post by ceejayoz »

trollbridge wrote: post #115
ceejayoz wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, part of the peace deal between Egypt and Israel gave Israel some control over the crossing, and they seized it entirely during the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafah_Border_Crossing > The Rafah crossing was opened by Israel after the 1979 peace treaty and remained under Israeli control until 2005... > Under a 2007 agreement between Egypt and Israel, Egypt controls the crossing but imports through th…

This is to a large part to give Egypt plausible deniability. They don’t want to deal with Gaza, refugees, or a humanitarian crisis, but also don’t want the political fallout of taking action like the Israelis do.

Eh, 50/50. Israel would not respond positively to Egypt throwing the gates wide open.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#142

Post by draw_down »

tcp_handshaker wrote: post #125
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE: "Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and…

Sometimes foreign aid is good, other times it's bad.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#143

Post by nixon_why69 »

redwood wrote: post #71
nixon_why69 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when Chinese flagged ships dare us to shoot them?

Do you mean Chinese military vessels? Or do you mean oil tankers? Oil tankers don't require you to shoot you simply commandeer. If China were to involve its Navy in opening the straight that's exactly what Good outcome could look like

Or it could be Really Really Bad Outcome, let's not be too flippant about this.

Out of curiousity, what's your good outcome from the Chinese sending destroyers to the gulf?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#144

Post by renticulous »

bawolff wrote: post #57
pjc50 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

I think there are only 3. Houthis (iran), PLC (saudi), and STC (UAE). I guess Al-Qaeda and Isis are also there.

On whose side is Turkey? Or is it charting its own path?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#145

Post by g8oz »

juujian wrote: post #8
dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

That would also explain why UAE is oddly in favor of a war in their region.

They are a wannabe Israel, a bad faith actor sowing chaos for geopolitical advantage. They've been spending money on Washington lobbyists to advocate for this war for a long time. And this isn't the only skulduggery they've been up to. They've supported the warlord Haftar in Libya and the genocidal RSF militia in Sudan.

They've hired American mercenaries to assassinate Islamist civil society figures in Yemen. They pay European right-wing influencers to spread anti Muslim content (yes you read that right). They are the buyer for conflict gold coming from the Congo. In short they are a problem.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#146

Post by spacebanana7 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #68
spacebanana7 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first. There are dozens of ways to increase production through world peace, better drilling technology and ideological conversion. Most of African production is well below geological potential (Libya being the easiest example, but also applies to Nigeria and the DRC etc). European shale is barely investigated, Russia is restricted by sanctions, the Middle…

> The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first. Not sure I buy that. Oil will still be in demand as a chemical feedstock. In fact, there are already people saying that oil is too precious to use as a fuel.

Oil will only be in demand as a chemical feedstock as long as it's economically competitive with the alternatives. There's a substitute for virtually every petrochemical process if oil becomes scare (or expensive) enough.

Substitution is highly impractical in the short term but in a conversations of decades/centuries it's significant. Venezuela's reserves alone could run the world's petrochemicals for 60 years (Gemini) so it's a realistic perspective. Together with other proven reserves we could be okay for centuries.

Recycling is sometimes an option too.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#148

Post by Ajedi32 »

WarmWash wrote: post #75
cj wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed Why/how? Without a healthy cartel, wouldn't prices go down? Cheaper oil means less adoption of alternate energy sources.

The goal of the cartel was to stabilize prices right in the sweet spot to keep the world addicted. Too low and players start losing money, too high and people switch away from oil, too much volatility, and people switch away from oil.

> Too low and players start losing money

Only the non-competitive ones. That's how competition works.

OPEC would be deemed an illegal anti-consumer price fixing scheme under the laws of any country with even the most basic of anti-trust laws, if not for the fact that its entirely composed of sovereign countries not subject to any law but their own.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#149

Post by Eisenstein »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #137
Havoc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

That doesn't mean the warnings were frivolous. There was ultimately a change in course which averted it. How sure are you that will be the case this time?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#150

Post by Cyph0n »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #137
Havoc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

Has the GCC been in an existential state of panic to the point where they’re seriously questioning their relationship with the US any time in the past 30 years?
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