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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#81

Post by kibwen »

cj wrote: post #29
eykanal wrote: post #9

Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.

My understanding is basically that OPEC is similar to a workers union. Countries band together and set terms that dictate the price and the supply available in the market. UAE leaving OPEC is like breaking up a workers union. UAE is no longer required to restrict how much oil it exports, and also doesn't have to set a price floor. They're allowed to sell more oil cheaper, potentially at the expense of neighboring OPE…

> Which to me sounds like a good thing for the rest of the world?

It probably isn't a bad thing, but let's not overestimate the beneficial effects. The reason oil prices are high right now isn't because of cartel fuckery, it's because of Trump and his war. And oil supply chains are in such chaos because of Trump's war that even if it ended tomorrow it would take markets multiple years to return to a pre-war state.

The bottom line is that oil prices are going to be elevated for years to come, and when oil prices are high, OPEC has nothing to do other than sit back and collect the profits. And thanks to the ongoing solar revolution, oil's days as the world's predominant geopolitical poker chip are numbered; by mid-century OPEC won't be relevant anyway.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#82

Post by bilegeek »

delecti wrote: post #74
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

They're not buddies per se, but Egypt was the first ME country to normalize relations.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#83

Post by j_maffe »

delecti wrote: post #74
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

Egyptians and Israelis hate each other, not their governments. They're on friendly terms relatively speaking.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#85

Post by rigonkulous »

redwood wrote: post #26
smt88 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

hmm .. imho .. the supply chain between Iran, Russia, and China is .. radically .. under-estimated in the equation by those states who have lost control over the worlds energy supplies.

It is more like the Western nations which cannot withstand another month of all this 'posturing' .. But there is some resilience to the idea that the Iran/Russia/China corridor is going to keep those nations relatively buffered from total disaster.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#86

Post by seydor »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #40

This is how peak oil happens. Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.

how is the cartel not healthy? uae is 12%

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#87

Post by wat10000 »

bilegeek wrote: post #82
delecti wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

They're not buddies per se, but Egypt was the first ME country to normalize relations.

They've also been cooperating on blockading Gaza for a couple of decades. Israel gets most of the attention for that, mostly rightfully so, but people seem to forget that there's a border with Egypt too and that has also had very limited access.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#88

Post by slibhb »

delecti wrote: post #74
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

Virtually all Arabs hate Israel but Arab governments are more varied. The modern Egyptian state is oriented toward close partnership with the US, and a large part of that was peace with Israel post '73.

So yes, the UAE could align with both.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#89

Post by seydor »

joshuaheard wrote: post #50
eykanal wrote: post #9

Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.

OPEC is a cartel of Arab oil-producing countries, including UAE. They limit production in order to keep the world oil price artificially high. UAE is pulling out of the cartel, presumably so it can bypass the restrictions and cash in on the high prices caused by the Iranian conflict. AFAIK this is the first time a country has pulled out of OPEC, and hopefully, it will lead to its demise.

> its demise.

OPEC or UAE?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#90

Post by rigonkulous »

redwood wrote: post #69
torlok wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.

This is a population that absolutely despises their government. At least a very large percentage are in that category. I think you misunderstand the reality on the ground

Iranians despise their government in about the same way that Americans despise their government - which is to say, both peoples got the government they deserve...
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