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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#61

Post by ReptileMan »

pjc50 wrote: post #42
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

In the Middle East everyone fights with everyone else and everyone is in covert or open alliance with everyone else. Simultaneously.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#62

Post by defrost »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

As I recall, it was Saudi Arabia that largely bank rolled Pakistan's "not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" weapons program [Ω](?) .

[Ω] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_d...

So there's that.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#63

Post by JumpCrisscross »

pjc50 wrote: post #42
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.

> an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen

RealLifeLore has been doing a decent job covering it [1].

The broad summary is you have the Saudi-backed unity government, the Iranian-backed Houthis, who claim all of Yemen but practically want North Yemen, and the UAE-backed STC, who also claim all of Yemen but practically want South Yemen. Emiratis bring the Israelis to the party. The Iranians bring the Russians. The Saudis bring various international elements (I know less about them than the Houthis and STC).

[1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgD7zmJN3_A&pp=0gcJCVACo7VqN5t...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#64

Post by TacticalCoder »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #40

This is how peak oil happens. Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.

> Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.

Yes and we've seen negative electricity price in some EU countries a few days ago: very sunny days but not too warm, perfect for solar panels. Supply surpassing consumption: negative electricity prices.

While we're, supposedly, living through an energy crisis. There may oil shipment issues and there are issues with energy due to the Russia/Ukraine war too but... Many already understood that there were solutions to not be entirely dependent on oil.

Doomsayers are going to argue that "we need electricity during the winter at 6 pm" so a "largely negative electricity on a sunny sunday means nothing" (Belgium, two days ago: hugely negative electricity prices, for example and it's not the only case) but the truth is: we're not anywhere near as dependent on oil as we were during the Yum Kippur war / 1973 oil shock.

And oil is definitely limited in how high it can go for as soon as it goes up, suddenly other energy source make more and more sense economically.

Once again: negative electricity prices two days ago. Let that sink in.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#65

Post by nixon_why69 »

torlok wrote: post #44
redwood wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.

And, to add on, how much more it matters when a very rich population didn't sign up for this at all and has no vested interest in "winning" at cost.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#66

Post by yubblegum »

joshuaheard wrote: post #50
eykanal wrote: post #9

Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.

OPEC is a cartel of Arab oil-producing countries, including UAE. They limit production in order to keep the world oil price artificially high. UAE is pulling out of the cartel, presumably so it can bypass the restrictions and cash in on the high prices caused by the Iranian conflict. AFAIK this is the first time a country has pulled out of OPEC, and hopefully, it will lead to its demise.

> OPEC is a cartel of Arab oil-producing countries

"In 1949, Venezuela initiated the move towards the establishment of what would become OPEC, by inviting Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia" ...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#67

Post by coffeebeqn »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #40

This is how peak oil happens. Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.

I guess the silver lining from this mess is that maybe some more governments realize they don’t want their energy policy to force them into a recession every time there’s a conflict in the Middle East

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#68

Post by AnimalMuppet »

spacebanana7 wrote: post #55
energy123 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earth is going to run out of oil in 50 years at current rates. One way or another, the status quo is going to change.

The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first. There are dozens of ways to increase production through world peace, better drilling technology and ideological conversion. Most of African production is well below geological potential (Libya being the easiest example, but also applies to Nigeria and the DRC etc). European shale is barely investigated, Russia is restricted by sanctions, the Middle…

> The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first.

Not sure I buy that. Oil will still be in demand as a chemical feedstock. In fact, there are already people saying that oil is too precious to use as a fuel.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#69

Post by redwood »

torlok wrote: post #44
redwood wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.

This is a population that absolutely despises their government. At least a very large percentage are in that category. I think you misunderstand the reality on the ground

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#70

Post by elphinstone »

Leaving OPEC right now means little short-term with so much production shut-in. Long-term, the UAE may cease to exist if this war goes on. Its population is 80%+ guest workers, it's totally dependent on desalination, food imports, and oil/gas exports and is incapable of defending itself on its own.
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