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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple is basically in the same boat as AMD and Intel. They have a weak, raster-focused GPU architecture that doesn't scale to 100B+ inference workloads and especially struggles with large context prefill. TPUs smoke them on inference, and Nvidia hardware is far-and-away more efficient for training.

This doesn't get talked about enough - the GPU is weak, weak, weak. And anyone who can fix them will go to a serious AI company (for 2-3x the salary).

The GPU is monstrously good. Depending on the workload, the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W.

Same with the CPU. Linux compiled faster on an M1 than on the fastest Intel i9 at the time, again using only 25% of the power budget.

And the M-series has only gotten better.

It is kind of sad Apple neglects helping developers optimize games for the M-series because iDevices and MacBooks could be the mobile gaming devices.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#382
post #305
post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your claim is that human intelligence is a next token predictor. Literally it is, at least in many of its forms. You accepted CamperBob2’s text as input and then you generated text as output. Unless you are positing that this behavior cannot prove your own general intelligence, it seems plain that “next token generator” is sufficient for AGI. (Whether the current LLM architecture is sufficient is a slightly differe…

Before I start typing, I think abstractly about the topic and decide on what I shall write in response. Due to the linear nature of time, typing necessarily happens one word at a time, but I am never producing a probability distribution of words (at least not in a way that my conscious self can determine), I consider an entire idea and then decide what tokens to enter into the computer in order to communicate the ide…

> I am never producing a probability distribution of words (at least not in a way that my conscious self can determine)

Inability to introspect your own word selections does not mean it’s meaningfully different from what an LLM does. There is plenty of evidence that humans do a lot of things that are not driven by conscious choice and we rationalize it after the fact.

> I consider an entire idea and then decide what tokens to enter into the computer in order to communicate the idea to you.

And how is that different? You are not so subtly implying that an LLM can’t consider an idea but you haven’t established this as fact. i.e. You are starting with the assumption that an LLM cannot possibly think and therefore cannot be intelligent, but this is just begging the question.

> sometimes I don't think and just experience feelings like a kiss or the sun on my skin or the euphoria of a piece of music which hits just right. These experiences shape who I am and how I think.

You cannot spin experience as intelligence. LLMs have the experience of reading the entire internet, something you cannot conceive of. Certainly your experiences shape who you are. This is a different axis from intelligence, though.

> This process seems completely detached from words. In contrast, for a language model, there is no thinking outside of producing words.

Both sides of this claim seem dubious. The second half in particular seems to be founded on nothing. Again, you are asserting with no support that there is no thinking going on.

> It seems self-evident to me that at least parts of the human experience fundamentally can not be reduced to next token prediction. Further, it seems plausible to me that some of these aspects may be necessary for what we consider general intelligence.

I don’t think anyone sane is claiming an LLM can have a human experience. But it is not clear that a human experience is necessary for intelligence.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#384

Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.

In the recent Dwarkesh Podcast episode Jensen Huang (Nvidia) said that virtually nobody but Anthropic uses TPUs. How does that add up?

Who is the other frontier lab other than Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google? I thought they were ahead of everyone else.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#385

Alright my theory: OpenAI has public models that are pretty 'meh', better than Grok and China, but worse than Google and Anthropic. They still cost a ton to run because OpenAI offers them for free/at a loss. However, these people are giving away their data, and Microsoft knows that data is going to be worthwhile. They just dont want to pay for the electricity for it.

Small nitpick: the models probably make some money on actual inference. Might not be a massive amount, but hard to see them not having a positive contribution margin purely on inference.

What's losing OpenAI money is paying for the whole of R&D, including training and staff. Microsoft doesn't pay that, so they get the money making part of AI without the associated costs.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turing himself argued that trying to measure if a computer is intelligent is a fool's errand because it is so difficult to pin down definitions. He proposed what we call the "Turing test" as a knowable, measurable alternative. The first paragraph of his paper reads: > I propose to consider the question, "Can machines think?" This should begin > with definitions of the meaning of the terms "machine" and "think." The >…

The Turing test ended up being kind of a flop. We basically passed it and nobody cared. That's because the turing test is about whether a machine can fool a human, not about its intelligent capabilities per se.

No, it's because certain people moved the goal posts. Nothing an LLM does or will do will make them belive that it's "intelligent" because they have a mental model of "intelligence" that is more religious than empirical.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me a graph of your javelin skill doubling every six months and I'll start asking myself if you'll be the next champion

I could easily make that graph a reality and sustain that pace for a couple years, considering I'm starting from 0 javelin skill.

It is a simple mathematical fact that if you get married one year and have twins the next, your household will contain over a million people within 20 years.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#388
post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

At this point that phase is an attempt at status signaling.

it's hilarious though

it's like people are LARPing a Fortune company CEO when they're giving their hot takes on social media

reminds me of Trump ending his wild takes on social media with "thank you for your attention to this matter" - so out of place, it makes it really funny

*typo

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not one-shot. Other people had attempted the same problem w/ the same AI & failed. You're confused about terms so you redefine them to make your version of the fairy tale real.

We already know that same problem has been examined by many credible mathematicians already and couldn't be solved by any of them yet. Why are we expecting AGI to one shot it? Can't we have an AGI that can fails occasionally to solve some math problem? Is the expectation of AGI to be all knowing? By the way I agree that AGI is not around the corner or I am not arguing any of the llm s are "thinking machines". It's ju…

People want to believe in magic so they will find excuses to do so. Computers have been proving theorems for a long time now but Isabelle/HOL didn't have the marketing budget of OpenAI so people didn't care. Now that Sam Altman is doing the marketing people all of a sudden care about proving theorems.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#390

Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.

In the recent Dwarkesh Podcast episode Jensen Huang (Nvidia) said that virtually nobody but Anthropic uses TPUs. How does that add up?

I am not sure what context Jensen said that. But midjourney uses tpu. Apple uses tpu. They are no other frontier labs that use it, but Google + Anthropic is 2 out of 3 frontier lab so.....

You could reasonably say that "A majority of frontier labs uses TPU to train and serve their model."

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