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Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#151
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that these type of antitrust laws are in no way enforced anymore in the tech industry. And that it's been that way for decades. I mean the sheer existence of Google shows that right? What about Maps, Mail, Books... basically everything apart from Search? Why would an AI Mode as one category of Search results be any different? They're not actively promoting Gemini in those search results. They're simply augm…

Yes anti-trust is very much theatre nowadays. As long it further's American interests globally - monopoly is fine. Other countries need to take notice and start picking winners nationally in order to compete with the large American big tech firms.

Eh, I think this is actually not a specifically American thing. More of a neo-liberal mindset. Competition may be good in the long term. But a monopoly now may mean more money in your pocket now. The tech giants definitely give the US some geo-political power in some cases but in general the US would be better off with more competition.

ed: @er2d, can't reply to your comment for some reason, so doing it here: I don't agree. In theory a monopoly decreases the necessity for R&D. Of course this becomes more complex if the R&D is funded or steered by the state. But look at the current state of LLMs. There is fierce competition between 3 US companies. But geopolitically it's the same as if there would be one monopoly. The US being the clear technological leader in an industry is not dependent on that industry being a domestic monopoly.

And for the Europe comment: Also don't agree. Look at Boeing & Airbus. Both are companies where the US & EU have decided that they need to ensure the existence of a domestic airplane manufacturer. So in these cases they support these companies (often in violation of international trade laws). But it has nothing to do with monopolies. If a state decides to support a company to ensure its existence, a monopoly is the logical consequence and not the aim. Because if that industry would be profitable it wouldn't need to be supported in the first place.

But all these tech companies are not in industries that would move off-shore or stop existing because they're not profitable enough, so it's an entirely different setting.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#153

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two somewhat adverse contracts with Amazon and Google in short succession. suddenly model quality is back up again.

That’s what’s needed when you go from $9B in ARR … to $30B in ARR literally just one quarter later . That kind of insane growth & demand is unprecedented at that scale. https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-c...

What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#154
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

> Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws.

Running at a loss long enough to kill the competition is basically the name of the game these days.

When Uber started, they were basically setting VC money on fire by selling rides at a loss to destroy the taxi market.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#155
post #92

It feels like the market is full Wiley Coyote on frontier model makers, and I like Anthropic's B2B business model. But all progress points to a commodification of foundation models--Google first named it as "we have no moat, neither does anyone else." So there must be some secondary play driving this, right? Hardware sales? Hedging for search ad revenue? Still feels mispriced. I think asset inflation leaves too much…

I haven't thought about any secondary play, but if these companies converge on Google's TPUs, they would probably eagerly slice from NVIDIA's current market. > In September 2025, Google is in talks with several "neoclouds," including Crusoe and CoreWeave, about deploying TPU in their datacenter. In November 2025, Meta is in talks with Google to deploy TPUs in its AI datacenters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensor_P…

I keep getting notification from my tooling that gemini models are overloaded so we switched you to openai. So I feel google is not ready to sell tpu’s just yet.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI is commoditising, who is Bahrain and who are the Saudis?

The company with the access to cheap and plentiful energy and the real estate to build data centers will be Saudi Arabia in your analogy. This is why SpaceX could be a dark horse in this race. Putting compute in space is expensive but so is building a data center in the US.

> Putting compute in space is expensive but so is building a data center in the US.

You know what's also really hard in a vacuum? Dissipating heat.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#157
post #129

My opinion about this is that Google see it as a way to weaken OpenAI, and few other side benefits, including the option to acquire Anthropic. And it may very well be bad news for OpenAI.

That boat has sailed off. Not even Google has the cash to buy a company valued at almost a trillion dollars.

Valued at a trillion by basically, no one who would actually invest anywhere close to that

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#158
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

> antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly.

couldn't this just be framed / spun as just using search data as training? i don't seem being bundled enough to run afoul with anti-trust.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#159
post #148

Anyone else has an increasing feeling that all the AI hype is turning into a "Dot-Com Bubble x 2008 Credit Default Swaps" collab?

It's an actual bubble specific to AI. This investment is just another example of the bubble. Pre-2008, all the investment would be coming from banks. Post-2008, all the investment came from VCs... but VCs got tapped out, so AI companies went to bigger private capital. They tapped out all the private capital. So now they're making the rounds, making deals with any corporations left with tens/hundreds of billions in cash, because they're the only possible investors left. When all of them are tapped out, and without a release of pressure from the hardware market, the only investor left will be the government. After that it's kaplooie.

You'll notice that all the really big deals have fallen through, because they're based on promises and meeting objectives that can't be met. So it's likely that there will be really big writeoffs but not a huge implosion like 2001/2008. The real losers will be the retail investors who put all their money in a handful of stocks at ridiculous valuations.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#160
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes anti-trust is very much theatre nowadays. As long it further's American interests globally - monopoly is fine. Other countries need to take notice and start picking winners nationally in order to compete with the large American big tech firms.

Eh, I think this is actually not a specifically American thing. More of a neo-liberal mindset. Competition may be good in the long term. But a monopoly now may mean more money in your pocket now. The tech giants definitely give the US some geo-political power in some cases but in general the US would be better off with more competition. ed: @er2d, can't reply to your comment for some reason, so doing it here: I don't…

Nope the reason for a monopoly is incentives for R&D and innovation.

The US understands that and allows it to happen as the former yields a compounding effect of power.

European states certainly don't get this.

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